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ECU

East Carolina 46 at Cincinnati 54

CIN
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 13, 2014 · Paul Brown Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:16 · Worth Gregory punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Home team on offense+1.3Pregame prior−5.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:42: Mike Boone run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +14.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:38: Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 18 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Holding (Zach Edwards) declined, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +19.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:44: Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ECU win probability +17.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:02: Shane Carden run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ECU win probability +59.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:15: Andrew Gantz 47 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +44.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 7:02ECU 4th & 9 at CIN 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:47ECU 4th & 6 at CIN 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:37ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:42CIN 4th & 7 at ECU 16, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−5.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:16ECU 4th & 3 at CIN 42, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−1.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:57CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:31ECU 4th & 22 at CIN 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:44CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:00ECU 4th & 19 at ECU 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−2.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:49CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−7.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:11ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:47CIN 4th & 6 at ECU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−1.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:03CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.2%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:15CIN 4th & 10 at ECU 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−26.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−36.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:21CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:27CIN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:07ECU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:36ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:27CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:30CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:42CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:51ECU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:38ECU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:47CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:44ECU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    15.3%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:02ECU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1FUMBLE
15 plays · 58 yds · 3:3760% → 60%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
40.0%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
40.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 3 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
40.3%
Anthony Scott run for 9 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
40.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
40.3%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
50
+1
40.3%
Chris Hairston run for 1 yd to the Cincy 49Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
40.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
40.6%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+5
40.8%
Gregory, Worth punt 30 yards to the CINCINNATI15, downed, PENALTY CINCINNATI running into kicker (Mitchell, Brandon) 5 yards to the CINCINNATI40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
40.6%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-13
40.8%
Shane Carden sacked by Silverberry Mouhon for a loss of 13 yards to the CINCINNATI 49 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Shane Carden) to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 21
OWN 49
+24
41.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 24 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
40.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Quay Johnson for 10 yds Quay Johnson fumbled, forced by Jeff Luc, recovered by Cincy Jeff LucSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:3941% → 44%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
41.2%
Rod Moore run for 23 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
41.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+55
43.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 55 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:0657% → 57%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
43.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
43.3%
Breon Allen run for no gain to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+12
44.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 12 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
43.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 31 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
43.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+10
43.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 10 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
43.5%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
43.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for no gain to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
44.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
43.4%
Warren Harvey 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4044% → 44%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
43.7%
Rod Moore run for no gain to the Cincy 12Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
43.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+1
43.5%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Lamar Ivey return for 1 yd to the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1357% → 57%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
42.8%
Breon Allen run for 14 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
42.9%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
43.0%
Marquez Grayson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
43.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
43.5%
Warren Harvey 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0744% → 51%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
44.3%
Mike Boone run for 24 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
45.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 19 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
46.1%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
46.4%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+10
46.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 10 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
51.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3750% → 48%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
50.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 16 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
50.0%
Shane Carden sacked by Silverberry Mouhon for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 13
OWN 31
0
50.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+1
51.4%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 12
OWN 32
+7
52.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 57 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 7 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:4751% → 57%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
51.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 11 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+25
51.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 25 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
53.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 7 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+20
53.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 20 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
54.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
54.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 3 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
54.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
56.7%
Andrew Gantz 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 3:1444% → 53%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
56.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 5 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+24
56.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 24 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
55.4%
Allen, Breon rush for 1 yard to the EASTCRLINA47, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+7
56.9%
Breon Allen run for 7 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
57.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+17
57.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 17 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
56.3%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
56.3%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Hardy, Justin, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Luc, Jeff) 2 yards to the CINCINNATI34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
56.2%
Anthony Scott run for 8 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+15
56.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 15 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
47.4%
Marquez Grayson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:3850% → 51%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
51.6%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
51.4%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Johnathon White return for 1 yd to the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 0:3352% → 60%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+28
48.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 28 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
48.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q2 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
48.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
40.4%
Justin Hardy run for 7 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0143% → 53%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.2%
Gunner Kiel run for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
44.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Rod Moore for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-1
45.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-5
43.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+66
53.1%
Chris Moore 66 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:5747% → 47%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
53.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 26 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
50.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
51.1%
Marquez Grayson run for 7 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
51.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
52.6%
Worth Gregory punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:3554% → 72%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
53.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 4 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+8
54.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 8 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
54.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 13 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
56.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 16 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
57.3%
Rod Moore run for 14 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
59.0%
Rod Moore run for 11 yds to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
58.9%
Rod Moore run for 9 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
71.9%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 1:1030% → 31%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
70.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 9 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
69.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 5 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
70.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 3 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
70.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+15
70.8%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Worthy, Cam, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Brown, Aaron) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
68.9%
Breon Allen run for 13 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
66.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
66.9%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Terrell GreenSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+53
69.4%
Warren Harvey 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:0369% → 87%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
69.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 14 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
70.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 9 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
70.7%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
71.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 12 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
72.3%
Rod Moore run for 9 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+13
72.7%
Kiel, Gunner pass incomplete to McKay, Mekale, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Allen, Detric) 13 yards to the EASTCRLINA7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
72.9%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the ECaro 3Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.0%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 0:3518% → 30%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
82.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+41
82.6%
Breon Allen run for 41 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
80.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
80.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+40
69.8%
Breon Allen run for 40 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4373% → 72%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
72.6%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
73.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
72.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max Morrison CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Deyshawn Bond) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
71.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:1529% → 24%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
71.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 5 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
70.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 5 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
70.1%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+31
71.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 31 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
68.9%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Hardy, Justin, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Hudson, Taylor) 10 yards to the CINCINNATI28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
70.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 20
OPP 28
-7
70.9%
Shane Carden sacked by Terrell Hartsfield for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 27
OPP 35
+5
73.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 22
OPP 30
+48
76.2%
Warren Harvey 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2877% → 78%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
76.7%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
77.3%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+1
78.1%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
77.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:2823% → 18%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
76.6%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
76.9%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+11
78.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 11 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
77.2%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+3
77.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 3 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-13
78.3%
Shane Carden sacked by Jeff Luc for a loss of 13 yards to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 19
OWN 35
0
82.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:4482% → 81%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
81.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-4
81.5%
Rod Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+10
80.7%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Lamar Ivey return for 10 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:2824% → 41%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
76.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Quay Johnson for 6 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
76.2%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+5
78.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 5 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
76.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-5
77.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Bryce Williams) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+2
77.7%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
58.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 18 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Holding (Zach Edwards) declined, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:3567% → 64%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
66.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 7 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
67.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 4 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
67.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-7
65.7%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Brandon Williams and Terry Biles for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 17
OWN 24
+2
64.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 39 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 2 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3038% → 35%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
62.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
62.8%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+5
65.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+49
65.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CINCINNATI 15 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andre Jones) to the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 5:1667% → 94%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
67.4%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+2
67.9%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+8
66.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 8 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
69.8%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
70.5%
Rod Moore run for 6 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
73.3%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
77.3%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+21
76.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 21 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
80.6%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+3
82.1%
Gunner Kiel run for 3 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
84.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+36
93.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 36 yds for a TD EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 0:517% → 26%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
92.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+27
93.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 27 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
92.0%
Breon Allen run for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+34
92.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 34 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
74.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 28FUMBLE
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:2288% → 93%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.7%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
89.1%
Gunner Kiel run for 5 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
90.4%
Rod Moore run for 1 yd to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-6
92.5%
Gunner Kiel run for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 27 Gunner Kiel fumbled, recovered by ECaro Lamar IveySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29TD
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:5124% → 82%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
76.2%
Chris Hairston run for 5 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+15
75.9%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Worthy, Cam, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Coleman, Grant) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
76.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
76.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.5%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
82.9%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Hardy, Justin, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Wilder, Howard) 5 yards to the CINCINNATI2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
76.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.7%
Shane Carden run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 30FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:3642% → 93%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
42.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Casey Gladney for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
50
+4
45.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 4 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+16
44.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 16 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
53.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
53.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
48.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
92.8%
Andrew Gantz 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 31FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-27
95.5%
Terrell Hartsfield 27 Yd Fumble Return Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:02
Shane Carden run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-59
FG · Q4 0:15
Andrew Gantz 47 yd FG GOOD
+44.7
TD · Q4 13:38
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 18 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Holding (Zach Edwards) declined, (Warren Harvey KICK)
-19.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com