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TLSA

Tulsa 7 at UCF 31

UCF
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 14, 2014 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:37 · Dalton Parks punt for 41 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 7 yds to the UCF 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+31.5Home team on offense+0.8Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:57: Josh Reese 77 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Rodrigo Quirarte Kick) — UCF win probability +6.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:57: Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 22 — TLSA win probability +2.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:41: Keevan Lucas 8 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Carl Salazar Kick) — TLSA win probability +7.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:27: Breshad Perriman 25 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Rodrigo Quirarte Kick) — UCF win probability +6.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:09: Dontravious Wilson 1 Yd Run (Rodrigo Quirarte Kick) — UCF win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:40UCF 4th & 1 at TLSA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50UCF 4th & 5 at TLSA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:48TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:03UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:39UCF 4th & 10 at TLSA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:37TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:09TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:23TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:11UCF 4th & 4 at TLSA 7, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:49TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:33TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 36, down 10
    Close callPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:19TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:26UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:55TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:08UCF 4th & 2 at TLSA 27, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:44TLSA 4th & 1 at UCF 39, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00UCF 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:08UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:57UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:41TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:27UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:09UCF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 6:1089% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
89.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 19 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
89.2%
William Stanback run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 5
50
+9
89.1%
William Stanback run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
89.0%
William Stanback run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+13
88.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 13 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
88.7%
William Stanback run for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+5
88.5%
William Stanback run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
88.5%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+20
88.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 20 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.2%
William Stanback run for no gain to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.1%
William Stanback run for no gain to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
87.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to William StanbackSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
87.7%
Rodrigo Quirarte 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0213% → 13%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
87.5%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
87.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
87.0%
Dane Evans run for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
86.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 48 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 3 yds to the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:4587% → 86%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
86.8%
William Stanback run for 7 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+9
86.9%
William Stanback run for 9 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
86.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-1
86.7%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+3
86.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 3 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
86.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 35 yds, downed at the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:1414% → 15%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
85.7%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+8
85.6%
Dane Evans run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
85.2%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Jordan Ozerities return for 7 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1086% → 85%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
86.3%
William Stanback run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
86.2%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Derrick Alexander) to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
86.0%
Justin Holman run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
86.0%
Justin Holman sacked by Derrick Alexander and Jerry Uwaezuoke for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q1 0:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
85.4%
Rodrigo Quirarte 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2315% → 14%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
85.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
85.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
85.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+7
85.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 41 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 7 yds to the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:2985% → 87%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
85.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Tarik Cook) to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+5
84.7%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
84.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+48
84.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 48 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
85.6%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
85.4%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+3
84.9%
Justin Holman run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.2%
William Stanback run for no gain to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.4%
J.J. Worton 5 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Rodrigo Quirarte Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:5913% → 13%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
86.8%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
86.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 7 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+3
86.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
86.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Derek PattersonSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
86.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
87.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
87.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
1 play · 77 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
94.1%
Josh Reese 77 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Rodrigo Quirarte Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:349% → 9%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
91.5%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+7
91.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
91.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
91.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
91.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+4
91.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 48 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 4 yds to the UCF 27 J.J. Worton fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Matt LinscottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.5%
Keevan Lucas 8 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Carl Salazar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:3088% → 87%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.6%
William Stanback run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
87.4%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dwight Dobbins) to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
87.5%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Chris Hummingbird) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+7
87.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-4
87.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+10
87.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
87.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
86.7%
Rodrigo Quirarte 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 2:2214% → 13%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
86.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 12 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
86.1%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
86.4%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+9
86.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 9 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
85.6%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
84.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-15
85.2%
TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Davis Walton) to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 18
OWN 36
0
87.1%
Dane Evans run for no gain to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
86.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 31 yds, downed at the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:4989% → 87%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
88.6%
Justin Holman sacked by Craig Suits for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+9
88.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 9 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
87.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2714% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
86.5%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
86.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 7 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
87.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
87.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 48 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 4:0687% → 95%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
87.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+6
87.6%
Justin Holman run for 6 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+6
87.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 6 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
87.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 5 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
88.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 7 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
88.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Justin Tukes for 30 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
88.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
88.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+25
95.0%
Breshad Perriman 25 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Rodrigo Quirarte Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:087% → 6%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.4%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
93.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
93.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Derek PattersonSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
93.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 47 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5395% → 94%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
95.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
94.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-3
94.8%
Justin Holman sacked by Derrick Alexander for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 13
OWN 23
+2
94.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 44 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:316% → 5%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
94.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
94.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 43 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:4695% → 99%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
95.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 11 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-3
95.6%
Justin Holman run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+15
95.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 15 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
95.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
95.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
95.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+25
96.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 25 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
96.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+10
96.1%
Justin Holman run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Dontravious Wilson 1 Yd Run (Rodrigo Quirarte Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:152% → 1%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
98.5%
James Flanders run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.6%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
50
+7
98.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 7 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
98.6%
Dane Evans pass intercepted D.J. Killings return for 2 yds to the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:3299% → 99%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
98.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jerry Uwaezuoke) to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
98.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 7 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+1
99.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
99.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:371% → 1%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
98.9%
Bishop Louie run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
98.9%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
99.0%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
98.9%
Dane Evans run for 4 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 6 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+9
98.9%
Dane Evans run for 9 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
98.9%
Dane Evans pass intercepted, touchback. Brandon Alexander return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:5199% → 99%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.2%
Micah Reed run for 3 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
99.2%
Micah Reed run for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+15
99.2%
Nick Patti run for 15 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.4%
Micah Reed run for 1 yd to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
99.4%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+1
99.4%
Nick Patti pass intercepted Michael Mudoh return for 1 yd to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:561% → 1%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.4%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
99.4%
Joseph Calcagni pass complete to Bishop Louie for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
99.4%
Joseph Calcagni run for 1 yd to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-1
99.4%
Joseph Calcagni run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 37 yds · 3:4499% → 100%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.4%
Micah Reed run for 1 yd to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+18
99.5%
Micah Reed run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.6%
Micah Reed run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
99.6%
Micah Reed run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+2
99.6%
Micah Reed run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+10
99.6%
Micah Reed run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:41
Keevan Lucas 8 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Carl Salazar Kick)
-7
TD · Q2 7:57
Josh Reese 77 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Rodrigo Quirarte Kick)
+6.7
TD · Q3 9:27
Breshad Perriman 25 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Rodrigo Quirarte Kick)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com