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SMU

SMU 28 at Tulsa 38

TLSA
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:59 · Jackson Koonce punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+8.9Home team on offense+24.9Score differential+16.8Garbage-time factor+4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:15: Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 42 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +5.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:06: Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +7.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:05: Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 32 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +6.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:07: Matt Davis run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK) — SMU win probability +6.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:14: Matt Davis 4 Yd Run (Matt Davis Pass to Justin Lawler for Two-Point Conversion) — SMU win probability +13.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:55TLSA 4th & 4 at SMU 40, down 6
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:21SMU 4th & 8 at TLSA 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:02SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:33SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 41, down 15
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:08TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 42, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:57SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 17, down 15
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:59SMU 4th & 8 at TLSA 43, down 22
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 17, up 22
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:03TLSA 4th & 3 at SMU 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:11SMU 4th & 9 at TLSA 15, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:08TLSA 4th & 7 at SMU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:55SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:04TLSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:32SMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:15TLSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:06TLSA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:06TLSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:05TLSA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:07SMU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:14SMU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.9%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.9%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
75.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by Shakiel RandolphSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
75.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
75.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 64 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
75.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Derek PattersonSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
75.5%
SMU Penalty, Defensive offside (Shakiel Randolph) to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
75.5%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
75.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
75.5%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 12 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
75.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Derek Patterson for 6 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
75.6%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
75.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Derek Patterson, broken up by Shakiel RandolphSimilar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
75.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
74.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 7 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-2
74.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+8
74.6%
Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.5%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
74.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 4 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
74.5%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
74.4%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+14
74.2%
Matt Davis pass intercepted Jake Sizelove return for 14 yds to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:2774% → 75%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
73.9%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
73.9%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+6
73.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
73.9%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+18
75.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 18 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:2827% → 32%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
73.5%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
73.4%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+10
73.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to Nate Halverson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
73.3%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
73.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+16
72.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 16 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
68.5%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 13 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
74.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 42 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:4527% → 28%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
73.4%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 11 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
73.3%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 8 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+7
72.8%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
72.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Nate HalversonSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
72.9%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 12 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
71.7%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
71.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+13
71.7%
Matt Davis run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-6
71.2%
Der'rikk Thompson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+1
71.8%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+7
72.6%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 7 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
72.0%
Cody Rademacher 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 2:1573% → 78%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
72.6%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
72.7%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+4
72.2%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
72.8%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+64
77.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 64 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
77.9%
Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the SMU 13 Matt Davis fumbled, forced by Craig Suits, recovered by Tulsa Michael Mudoh , return for 20 yds to the SMU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
78.6%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
78.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds D'Angelo Brewer fumbled, forced by Kevin Pope, recovered by SMU Hayden GreenbauerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
78.2%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+16
78.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 16 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
77.4%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-6
77.5%
Matt Davis sacked by Trent Martin for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 15
OWN 34
-5
78.9%
SMU Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 20
OWN 29
+6
78.9%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 6 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
79.1%
Jackson Koonce punt for 31 yds, downed at the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:3678% → 87%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
78.4%
EVANS, D. pass complete to DICKERSON, T. for 41 yards to the SMU25 (YENGA,J), PENALTY TLS holding (BELCHER, B.) 10 yards to the TLS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+35
78.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 35 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
79.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Derek Patterson for 16 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
79.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 16 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
79.8%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
79.8%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to GARRETT, K., PENALTY SMU holding (RANDOLPH,S) 3 yards to the SMU3, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.8%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.8%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:3315% → 16%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.1%
Matt Davis run for 4 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-10
84.7%
Matt Davis sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 29 SMU Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+12
85.9%
Matt Davis run for 12 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
84.4%
Jackson Koonce punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15KICKOFF
13 plays · 50 yds · 0:5586% → 89%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
85.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 5 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
85.6%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+10
86.8%
Zack Langer run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
87.2%
Zack Langer run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
87.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 11 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
87.8%
EVANS, D. rush for 6 yards to the SMU36, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TLS holding (STAFFORD, G.) 10 yards to the TLS48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+1
87.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 19
OWN 49
+8
88.1%
Dane Evans run for 8 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 11
OPP 43
+18
87.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 18 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-9
88.5%
Dane Evans sacked by Darrion Richardson for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.5%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
85.7%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to K.C. NlemchiSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-1
86.3%
Matt Davis sacked by Mitchell Osborne for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
86.5%
Jackson Koonce punt for 60 yds, downed at the Tulsa 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
87.2%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+1
87.3%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+4
86.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
87.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
87.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
87.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-2
87.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
87.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 14:08
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
86.4%
Dalton Parks punt for 48 yds, downed at the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
87.7%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
87.8%
Matt Davis run for no gain to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+3
88.1%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+9
88.2%
Jackson Koonce punt for 40 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 9 yds to the Tulsa 26 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:0191% → 97%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
90.5%
Dane Evans run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+7
90.6%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
90.6%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
90.3%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
90.7%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+32
97.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 32 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
96.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Nate Halverson for 8 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
96.7%
Matt Davis run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
96.7%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
96.7%
Matt Davis pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 7 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
96.6%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to K.C. NlemchiSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+8
96.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 8 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.7%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
96.7%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
96.8%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Der'rikk Thompson, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
96.8%
Jackson Koonce punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2498% → 98%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.1%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+7
98.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 7 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+2
98.1%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
98.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Der'rikk Thompson at the SMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:482% → 8%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.3%
Prescott Line run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
98.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+51
98.3%
Matt Davis run for 51 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.0%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
98.0%
K.C. Nlemchi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.0%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
95.4%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
95.4%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
95.5%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
95.5%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
95.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+6
95.5%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
95.4%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+2
94.8%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:085% → 16%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
95.1%
Matt Davis run for 12 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
95.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 7 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+7
94.6%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
94.8%
Matt Davis run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
94.5%
Prescott Line run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
94.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 9 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+7
94.0%
Prescott Line run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
94.0%
Matt Davis sacked by Derrick Alexander and Lionell Phillips for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+6
96.9%
Matt Davis run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
97.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Der'rikk Thompson, broken up by Demarco NelsonSimilar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+11
97.2%
Matt Davis run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.2%
Matt Davis 4 Yd Run (Matt Davis Pass to Justin Lawler for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:0695% → 97%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
94.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the SMU 41 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jonathan Yenga) to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+39
94.9%
Zack Langer run for 34 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (Shakiel Randolph) to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
95.2%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-11
95.8%
Dane Evans sacked by Stephon Sanders and Jarvis Pruitt for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
95.7%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
96.6%
Carl Salazar 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
96.9%
DAVIS,Matt pass incomplete to JOSEPH,Darius, QB hurry by SMITH, J., PENALTY SMU holding (WEEKS,Kris) 10 yards to the SMU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+9
97.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 9 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+24
96.9%
Matt Davis run for 24 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
96.5%
Matt Davis pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-6
95.8%
Matt Davis pass complete to Darius Joseph for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
96.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Prescott Line for 1 yd to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
96.3%
Matt Davis pass intercepted Keyarris Garrett return for no gain to the Tulsa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:14
Matt Davis 4 Yd Run (Matt Davis Pass to Justin Lawler for Two-Point Conversion)
-13
TD · Q2 2:06
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q3 5:05
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 32 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com