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UCF

UCF 29 at UConn 37

CONN
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:26 · Caleb Houston punt for 39 yds , Deshon Foxx returns for no gain to the UConn 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior−23.9Home team on offense−2.7Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:12: Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Noel Thomas for 38 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +10.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:39: Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 73 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +13.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:17: Ron Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +16.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:21: Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Noel Thomas for 22 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +17.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:28: Ron Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol PAT BLOCKED) — CONN win probability +11.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:31UCF 4th & 1 at CONN 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.4%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:12CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:21UCF 4th & 9 at CONN 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:21CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:26UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:34UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:12CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:59CONN 4th & 4 at UCF 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.1%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00UCF 4th & 12 at CONN 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−2.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:56CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:17CONN 4th & 1 at UCF 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−4.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−15.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:21UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:07CONN 4th & 9 at UCF 40, up 16
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:58UCF 4th & 22 at UCF 19, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:05CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 29, up 16
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:07CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:33UCF 4th & 16 at CONN 49, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:38UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:22CONN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:59UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:12CONN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:39UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:17CONN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:21CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:28CONN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:07UCF Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.2%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
22.1%
Chandler Whitmer run for 3 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
22.1%
Deshon Foxx run for no gain to the UConn 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
22.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
22.1%
Justin Wain punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
22.7%
William Stanback run for 19 yds to the UConn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
22.6%
William Stanback run for 7 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+4
22.6%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the UConn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
22.6%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
22.6%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UConn 16Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+3
22.7%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UConn 13Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 1
OPP 13
-1
22.7%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
24.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 3 yds to the UConn 17Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
24.4%
Chandler Whitmer run for no gain to the UConn 19 Chandler Whitmer fumbled, recovered by UCF Terrance PlummerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5576% → 77%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
24.2%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the UConn 17Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-15
24.4%
HOLMAN, Justin pass complete to PERRIMAN, B. for 17 yards to the UCONN0, clock 08:53, PENALTY UCF pass interference (PERRIMAN, B.) 15 yards to the UCONN32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 23
OPP 32
+22
24.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 22 yds to the UConn 10Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+7
24.5%
William Stanback run for 7 yds to the UConn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.9%
William Stanback run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:2624% → 23%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
23.6%
Chandler Whitmer run for no gain to the UConn 23Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-1
23.4%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 22Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
23.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
23.0%
Justin Wain punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6MISSED FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:5477% → 77%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
23.0%
William Stanback run for 18 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
22.9%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the UConn 38 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (B.J. McBryde) to the UConn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
22.7%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the UConn 22Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
22.7%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
23.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
23.5%
Shawn Moffitt 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jhavon Williams return for 15 yds to the UConn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
24.3%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Sean McQuillan for 6 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
24.7%
Tim Boyle pass incomplete, broken up by Troy GraySimilar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
24.5%
Tim Boyle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
24.1%
Justin Wain punt for 39 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
24.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
24.2%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+9
24.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 9 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
23.7%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
23.6%
William Stanback run for no gain to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
23.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
24.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 39 yds , Deshon Foxx returns for no gain to the UConn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2225% → 24%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
24.5%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
24.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+6
23.9%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 6 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 35
-5
24.1%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UConn 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
23.7%
Justin Wain punt for 42 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
24.0%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-7
24.5%
Justin Holman run for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 19 Justin Holman fumbled, recovered by UCF Justin HolmanSimilar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 19
OWN 19
+13
24.9%
Justin Holman run for 13 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 14:34
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
24.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 36 yds, downed at the UConn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
31.5%
Deshon Foxx run for 68 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:5870% → 70%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
29.5%
William Stanback run for 5 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
29.6%
William Stanback run for 10 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
28.7%
HOLMAN, Justin pass incomplete, QB hurry by FRANK, Reuben, PENALTY UCONN personal foul (FRANK, Reuben) 15 yards to the UCONN39, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
28.5%
William Stanback run for no gain to the UConn 39Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
28.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to William StanbackSimilar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+12
30.3%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Andrew Adams return for 12 yds to the UConn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
32.9%
Chandler Whitmer run for 4 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-9
33.2%
Deshon Foxx run for a loss of 9 yards to the UConn 22 CONNECTICUT Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+9
31.8%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Ron Johnson for 9 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
31.7%
Justin Wain punt for 48 yds, downed at the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:3668% → 77%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+27
32.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 27 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
30.4%
William Stanback run for 5 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
30.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jackie Williams for no gain to the UConn 47Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+31
30.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 31 yds to the UConn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
29.2%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the UConn 15Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+14
29.2%
William Stanback run for 14 yds to the UConn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
29.3%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the UConn 1Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.9%
William Stanback run for 1 yd for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:4727% → 39%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
26.8%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Deshon FoxxSimilar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
26.6%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Tommy Myers for 5 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+1
27.0%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 1 yd to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+5
25.8%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 5 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
27.4%
Deshon Foxx run for 3 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+10
27.4%
Deshon Foxx run for 10 yds to the UCF 29 Deshon Foxx fumbled, forced by Brandon Alexander, recovered by UConn Deshon Foxx for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
28.3%
Deshon Foxx run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-7
27.9%
Chandler Whitmer sacked by Jordan Ozerities for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 19
OPP 38
+38
38.8%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Noel Thomas for 38 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4666% → 67%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
33.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 8 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
31.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
32.3%
Justin Holman run for 7 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+43
32.7%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Andrew Adams return for 43 yds to the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:1145% → 48%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
44.6%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Noel Thomas, broken up by Jordan OzeritiesSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
44.7%
PUYOL, Bobby field goal attempt from 48 BLOCKED, recovered by UCONN FEAGLES, Blake at UCF49, clock 00:00 (blocked by OZERITIES, J.), PENALTY UCF offside (OZERITIES, J.) 5 yards to the UCF26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+43
48.2%
Bobby Puyol 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+21
42.2%
William Stanback run for 21 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
41.5%
William Stanback run for 11 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (Jamar Summers) to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
38.9%
William Stanback run for no gain to the UConn 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
38.9%
William Stanback run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
40.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
42.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Deshon Foxx at the UConn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
45.0%
Deshon Foxx run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 13Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+2
44.8%
Chandler Whitmer run for 2 yds to the UConn 15Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+11
43.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Noel Thomas for 11 yds to the UConn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
45.4%
Chandler Whitmer sacked by Miles Pace for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 23Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 13
OWN 23
0
44.8%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Thomas Lucas, broken up by Jordan OzeritiesSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+5
43.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Sean McQuillan for 5 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
42.8%
Justin Wain punt for 45 yds, downed at the UCF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:0754% → 68%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
45.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Justin Tukes, broken up by Jhavon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+73
32.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 73 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21TD
17 plays · 79 yds · 5:2233% → 54%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
33.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-10
32.9%
WHITMER, Chan. rush for 3 yards to the UCONN24, out-of-bounds (51), PENALTY UCONN holding (MATEAS, Alex) 10 yards to the UCONN11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 20
OWN 11
0
32.8%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 20
OWN 11
+15
31.6%
WHITMER, Chan. pass incomplete, PENALTY UCF pass interference (ALEXANDER, B.) 15 yards to the UCONN26, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
33.4%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Noel Thomas for 12 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
34.4%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 37Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+16
33.6%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Sean McQuillan for 16 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
37.0%
WHITMER, Chan. pass incomplete to NEWSOME, Arkeel, PENALTY UCF pass interference (PLUMMER, T.) 4 yards to the UCF43, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
37.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Arkeel NewsomeSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+14
36.9%
Chandler Whitmer run for 14 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
38.9%
Chandler Whitmer run for 8 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+20
38.9%
Arkeel Newsome run for 20 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.9%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.9%
Chandler Whitmer run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.8%
Chandler Whitmer run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.7%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
51.2%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
50.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 3 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
51.2%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Jefferson Ashiru return for no gain to the UCF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:2759% → 76%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
59.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 6 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+5
59.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 5 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
59.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 1 yd to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
59.0%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Arkeel NewsomeSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+22
76.3%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Noel Thomas for 22 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+17
74.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 17 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
73.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
74.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jackie Williams for 6 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
75.1%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
76.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Deshon Foxx at the UConn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 0:1582% → 94%
Q4 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
81.9%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
81.9%
WHITMER, Chan. pass incomplete to THOMAS, Noel, PENALTY UCF pass interference (GLENN, Jacoby) 5 yards to the UCF2, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.8%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
87.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to William StanbackSimilar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+17
88.3%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Andrew Adams return for 17 yds to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
93.9%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Sean McQuillan for 9 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-5
93.9%
NEWSOME, Arkeel rush for 5 yards to the UCF27 (GEATHERS, C.), PENALTY UCONN holding (CRUZ, Gus) 5 yards to the UCF37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-3
93.9%
Chandler Whitmer run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
93.6%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Noel Thomas, broken up by Jordan OzeritiesSimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
92.9%
Justin Wain punt for 26 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 1:178% → 6%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
91.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for 7 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 3
OWN 21
0
91.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+10
92.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 10 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
91.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-15
91.0%
HOLMAN, Justin pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, J., PENALTY UCF personal foul (COOK, Tarik) 15 yards to the UCF19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 22
OWN 19
+11
92.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 11 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-11
94.2%
Justin Holman sacked by Graham Stewart for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 22
OWN 19
+61
94.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCONN 35 CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UConn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:1195% → 96%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
95.3%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
96.0%
Deshon Foxx run for 3 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
96.2%
Deshon Foxx run for 3 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
95.9%
Justin Wain punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:073% → 10%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
50
-1
97.5%
Justin Holman sacked by Julian Campenni for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
97.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Dontravious WilsonSimilar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+15
97.7%
HOLMAN, Justin pass incomplete to WORTON, J.J. (HADLEY, Javon), PENALTY UCONN pass interference (HADLEY, Javon) 15 yards to the UCONN36, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
97.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jackie Williams for 8 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+11
96.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 11 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
97.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 3 yds to the UConn 14 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (B.J. McBryde) to the UConn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-9
97.1%
Justin Holman sacked by Marquise Vann and Cole Ormsby for a loss of 9 yards to the UConn 16Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
97.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jackie WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
89.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 16 yds for a TD CONNECTICUT Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Justin Holman pass to Josh Reese for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.1%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 26Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
93.0%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
92.8%
Chandler Whitmer run for no gain to the UConn 28Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+27
91.8%
Justin Wain punt for 27 yds, downed at the UCONN 45 CONNECTICUT Penalty, illegal batting ( Yards) to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 32DOWNS
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
94.2%
Justin Holman run for 8 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+4
92.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 4 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
93.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 5 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
92.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Dontravious WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-15
93.6%
HOLMAN, Justin pass complete to WORTON, J.J. for 18 yards to the UCONN20 (ADAMS, Andrew;MELIFONWU, Obi), PENALTY UCF pass interference (WILLIAMS, J.) 15 yards to the UCF47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 20
OWN 47
+4
95.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 4 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
95.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh Reese, broken up by Obi MelifonwuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:21
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Noel Thomas for 22 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
+17.3
TD · Q3 4:17
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q3 9:39
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 73 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com