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TLSA

Tulsa 20 at Memphis 40

MEM
2014 · Week 10 · Oct 31, 2014 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:20 · Dalton Parks punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior+27.1Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:07: Dane Evans pass complete to Derek Patterson for 28 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +5.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:10: Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +5.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 0:14: Brandon Hayes run for 51 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +7.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:06: Brandon Hayes run for 30 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:00: Keyarris Garrett 1 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — TLSA win probability +4.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 10TLSA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 10:03MEM 4th & 4 at TLSA 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:18TLSA 4th & 5 at MEM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:46MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:11TLSA 4th & 20 at TLSA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:37MEM 4th & 10 at TLSA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:08TLSA 4th & 10 at MEM 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50MEM 4th & 9 at TLSA 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:20TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:03TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:55MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 45, up 6
    Close callPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:55TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:42MEM 4th & 11 at TLSA 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:10TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:57MEM 4th & 7 at TLSA 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:07TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 23, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:22MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:57TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:59MEM 4th & 7 at TLSA 34, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:50MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 29, up 12
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:06TLSA 4th & 19 at MEM 35, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−0.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:42TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 20, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:06TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:07TLSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:10MEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14MEM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:06MEM Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:00TLSA Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.5%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:50MEM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:3993% → 92%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
92.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+15
92.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for no gain to the Memph 25 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 Yards) to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
92.7%
Brandon Hayes run for 6 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
92.6%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
92.6%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
92.5%
Paxton Lynch run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
92.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
92.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
92.2%
Paxton Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+5
92.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 5 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+2
91.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Joe Craig for 2 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
91.7%
Jake Elliott 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:229% → 10%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
91.5%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
91.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+17
91.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 17 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
91.0%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+9
90.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 9 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
90.5%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 7 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
90.4%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+4
90.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 4 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
90.1%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
89.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
89.8%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 5
OPP 30
-9
90.0%
Dane Evans sacked by Martin Ifedi for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2490% → 90%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
90.3%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
90.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 5 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+1
90.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 1 yd to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
89.7%
Spencer Smith punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 18 yds · 3:2111% → 11%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
89.5%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
89.3%
Dane Evans run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
88.9%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
88.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
88.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+16
88.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 16 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
88.0%
TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 25
OWN 28
0
88.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 25
OWN 28
+5
88.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 20
OWN 33
0
88.5%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 20
OWN 33
0
88.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 61 yds, downed at the Memph 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-6
85.7%
Demarco Nelson 6 Yd Fumble Return (Carl Salazar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:2386% → 87%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
85.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 30 yds Keiwone Malone fumbled, recovered by Memph Keiwone Malone for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
86.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
86.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
85.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+53
86.7%
Jake Elliott 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2113% → 22%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.7%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
86.0%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
85.9%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+17
86.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 17 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
84.9%
Dane Evans run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
84.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 4 yds Keevan Lucas fumbled, forced by Ryan Coleman, recovered by TulsaSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
84.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 10 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
83.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+12
83.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 12 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
77.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Derek Patterson for 28 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:4079% → 84%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
79.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 24 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
79.9%
Brandon Hayes run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
79.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
79.0%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
79.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9MISSED FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 3:5518% → 22%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to James Flanders for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
81.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 8 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
80.0%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+26
79.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 26 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
78.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
78.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Tavarreon Dickerson for 9 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
77.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
77.3%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
77.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
77.2%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
78.4%
Carl Salazar 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:1880% → 82%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
80.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
80.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 21 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
80.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Joe Craig for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Craig Suits) to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
82.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 22 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
82.7%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-10
82.6%
Hayes, Brandon rush for 2 yards to the TULSA15, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding 10 yards to the TULSA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 16
OPP 27
-10
81.1%
Lynch, Paxton rush for 2 yards to the TULSA25, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding 10 yards to the TULSA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 26
OPP 37
+9
80.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 9 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 17
OPP 28
+8
79.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 8 yds Alan Cross fumbled, forced by Michael Mudoh, recovered by MemphSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
81.7%
Jake Elliott 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:2021% → 20%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.5%
Zack Langer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
78.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
78.8%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
80.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:4682% → 88%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
82.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+7
80.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 7 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+51
88.0%
Brandon Hayes run for 51 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
88.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4714% → 13%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+14
86.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 50 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 14 yds to the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5588% → 86%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
87.6%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
86.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+10
86.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 10 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
86.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4915% → 14%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
85.0%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
84.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
85.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
85.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 35 yds, downed at the Memph 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:0687% → 85%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
87.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 18 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
87.4%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
87.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Adrian HendersonSimilar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
86.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
85.2%
Nick Jacobs punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2016% → 14%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
84.4%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+1
84.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
85.0%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 7
OWN 13
-5
85.4%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
85.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:0387% → 89%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
86.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 16 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
87.2%
Mose Frazier run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+1
87.1%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
86.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Mose FrazierSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
88.8%
Jake Elliott 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2911% → 10%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
88.8%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
88.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Colby ScottSimilar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
89.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+2
89.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 37 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 2 yds to the Memph 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4090% → 88%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-1
89.5%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
88.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
88.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1111% → 10%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
88.6%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
88.5%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for no gain to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
89.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
90.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:5190% → 92%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
90.3%
Paxton Lynch run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
90.3%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
90.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Adrian HendersonSimilar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
89.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Brandon HayesSimilar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+51
92.4%
Jake Elliott 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:328% → 10%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
91.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 20 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
90.6%
Langer, Zack rush for 1 yard to the TULSA46, PENALTY TULSA personal foul 15 yards to the TULSA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 24
OWN 31
+12
91.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 12 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+8
91.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 8 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
90.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 39 yds, downed at the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:1093% → 93%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
92.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 12 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
93.0%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
93.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
93.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q3 0:50
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
92.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:309% → 7%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
91.1%
Zack Langer run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-10
90.3%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 35 TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+17
91.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 17 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
90.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 11 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
90.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 21 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
89.9%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-1
89.9%
Zack Langer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-11
91.0%
Evans, Dane pass incomplete, PENALTY TULSA holding 11 yards to the MEMPHIS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 19
OPP 35
0
91.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 19
OPP 35
0
92.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:5395% → 99%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
94.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 13 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
95.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 15 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
95.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+6
95.0%
Brandon Hayes run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+30
98.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 30 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 3:403% → 7%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
97.5%
Dane Evans run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+7
97.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 7 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
97.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
50
+7
97.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 7 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-9
97.1%
Dane Evans sacked by Ricky Hunter for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+15
97.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
97.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 12 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to D'Angelo BrewerSimilar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+23
97.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 23 yds to the Memph 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.2%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Keyarris Garrett 1 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29TD
12 plays · 47 yds · 2:4097% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
96.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+8
96.9%
Brandon Hayes run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
97.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
97.3%
Brandon Hayes run for no gain to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
97.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
97.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+1
98.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+5
98.2%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
99.6%
Brandon Hayes run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+10
99.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 10 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
99.6%
Dane Evans sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 12
OWN 20
0
99.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 12
OWN 20
0
99.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to D'Angelo BrewerSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
99.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
99.7%
- Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 12
OWN 46
-2
99.7%
- Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 44
-2
99.7%
- Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:14
Brandon Hayes run for 51 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 10:07
Dane Evans pass complete to Derek Patterson for 28 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q2 8:10
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com