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MEM

Memphis 48 at SMU 10

SMU
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:07 · Cody Rademacher 54 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior−43.7Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:35: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 54 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +1.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:08: Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +2.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:08: Alan Cross run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:40: Prescott Line run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK) — SMU win probability +2.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:23: Brandon Hayes run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +3.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:11MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:17SMU 4th & 12 at MEM 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:07SMU 4th & 11 at MEM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    38% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:39SMU 4th & 5 at MEM 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:08MEM 4th & 1 at SMU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:39SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:40SMU 4th & 1 at MEM 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:40SMU 4th & 1 at MEM 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02MEM 4th & 13 at SMU 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:45MEM 4th & 2 at SMU 5, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:58SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 45, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:02SMU 4th & 17 at MEM 22, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:20SMU 4th & 9 at MEM 13, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:04MEM 4th & 16 at MEM 45, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:55SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 3, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:58MEM 4th & 6 at SMU 11, up 38
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00MEM 4th & 5 at SMU 5, up 38
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:35MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:08MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:08MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:40SMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:23MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:15MEM Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:54MEM Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4495% → 95%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
5.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 5 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
5.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+8
5.3%
Brandon Hayes run for 8 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
5.4%
Mose Frazier run for 3 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
5.5%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the Memph 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:526% → 6%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
5.6%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
5.6%
Garrett Krstich run for 6 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
5.8%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 5 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
6.0%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
6.1%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
6.1%
Garrett Krstich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
6.1%
Cody Rademacher punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3FUMBLE
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:3394% → 93%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
6.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 14 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
6.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+10
6.3%
Brandon Hayes run for 10 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
6.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
6.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Keiwone MaloneSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+11
6.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 11 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
6.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 11 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
6.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+17
6.7%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Robert Seals for a loss of 11 yards to the Memph 47 Paxton Lynch fumbled, forced by Robert Seals, recovered by SMU Zach Wood , return for 0 yards , return for 17 yds to the Memph 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:267% → 8%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
7.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Nate Halverson for 9 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
7.4%
Garrett Krstich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
7.4%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 1 yd to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
7.6%
Prescott Line run for 5 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
7.9%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-5
7.8%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Nate Halverson) to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-1
7.8%
Garrett Krstich sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+54
7.8%
Cody Rademacher 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:2292% → 93%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
7.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 8 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+54
6.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 54 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:487% → 8%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.1%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
7.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
7.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Shelby Walker for 10 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
7.5%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+14
7.8%
Garrett Krstich run for 14 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
8.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Luke Seeker for 1 yd to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
8.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Cedric LancasterSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+4
8.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 4 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
8.2%
Jackson Koonce punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
19 plays · 80 yds · 5:2492% → 93%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
8.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 11 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
8.0%
Jarvis Cooper run for 6 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
7.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+4
8.0%
Lynch, Paxton pass incomplete to Proctor, Roderick, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Pope, Kevin) 4 yards to the MEMPHIS43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
8.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Michael Stannard) to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 25
OWN 28
0
8.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 25
OWN 28
+16
8.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 16 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+31
8.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for 31 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
8.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
8.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Keiwone Malone) to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+15
8.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 15 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
8.0%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+11
8.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 11 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
8.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.8%
Tevin Jones run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:257% → 7%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.0%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
7.0%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
6.9%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+12
6.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 40 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 12 yds to the Memph 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:2493% → 96%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
6.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 7
50
0
6.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Jarvis CooperSimilar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 7
50
+42
6.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 42 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
6.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
6.6%
SMU Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (NA) to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.5%
Alan Cross run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:205% → 9%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
5.1%
Prescott Line run for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
5.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
5.2%
Garrett Krstich run for 3 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+24
5.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 24 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
5.7%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
5.9%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Prescott Line for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
5.8%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 3 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+21
5.7%
Prescott Line run for 12 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
5.9%
Luke Seeker run for 4 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
5.9%
Prescott Line run for no gain to the Memph 4Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
5.8%
Luke Seeker run for 3 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.5%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:0192% → 96%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
7.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+14
7.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 14 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
7.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick ProctorSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+26
7.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 26 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
3.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
5.1%
Garrett Krstich pass intercepted Reggis Ball return for 24 yds to the SMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13END OF HALF
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:5896% → 96%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
3.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+15
3.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 15 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
3.7%
Paxton Lynch run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 14
OPP 21
-9
3.8%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Stephon Sanders for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 23
OPP 30
+10
3.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 10 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
3.7%
Jake Elliott 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14INT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:115% → 4%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-14
4.6%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SMU 36 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Darius Joseph) to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 24
OWN 21
+5
4.4%
Garrett Krstich run for 5 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+7
4.3%
Garrett Krstich pass intercepted Andrew Gaines return for 7 yds to the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:5397% → 98%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
3.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 22 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
3.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-3
3.1%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 12Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+7
2.9%
Paxton Lynch run for 7 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
1.8%
Jake Elliott 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:412% → 2%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
2.2%
Line, Prescott rush for loss of 2 yards to the SMU23, PENALTY MEMPHIS personal foul (Jakes, Tank) 15 yards to the SMU40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
2.3%
Luke Seeker run for 2 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-2
2.1%
Matt Davis sacked by Ricky Hunter for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
2.0%
Matt Davis run for 5 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
2.0%
Jackson Koonce punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:2998% → 99%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
1.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 6 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-13
1.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Memph 37 MEMPHIS Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Al Bond) to the Memph 22Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 17
OWN 22
-5
1.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Zach Collins) to the Memph 17Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 22
OWN 17
+15
1.7%
Lynch, Paxton pass incomplete, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Richardson, Jr) 15 yards to the MEMPHIS32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
1.6%
Alan Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+13
1.7%
Keiwone Malone run for 13 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
1.6%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+18
1.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 18 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+29
1.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 29 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:071% → 1%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.0%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
1.0%
Matt Davis run for 3 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-7
1.0%
Matt Davis run for 8 yds to the SMU 46 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
1.0%
Luke Seeker run for 17 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
1.1%
Luke Seeker run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 8
50
+6
1.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 6 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+29
1.3%
Matt Davis run for 29 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-7
1.4%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 22Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 17
OPP 22
0
1.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Prescott LineSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 17
OPP 22
0
1.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Stephen NelsonSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+40
1.0%
Cody Rademacher 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
0.5%
Jason Stewart run for 7 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+7
0.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 7 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
0.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 10 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
0.4%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Robby Young for 29 yds for a TD, (Spencer Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Luke Seeker run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
0.2%
Matt Davis run for 10 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
0.2%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+41
0.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 41 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
0.2%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
0.2%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
0.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Luke SeekerSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 9
OPP 13
0
0.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:11100% → 100%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
0.3%
Jason Stewart run for 4 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+8
0.2%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Greg McKillion for 8 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Jason Stewart pass incomplete to Joe CraigSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 13 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
0.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
0.2%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Robert Davis for 8 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
0.2%
Robert Davis run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
0.2%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-12
0.2%
Jason Stewart sacked by Kevin Pope for a loss of 12 yards to the SMU 45 MEMPHIS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jason Stewart) to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 16
OWN 45
+50
0.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 46 yds, downed at the SMU 9 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the SMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
0.1%
Luke Seeker run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 12
OWN 3
0
0.1%
Kolney Cassel pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 12
OWN 3
0
0.1%
Kolney Cassel pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 12
OWN 3
+16
0.1%
Jackson Koonce punt for 39 yds , Joe Craig returns for 16 yds to the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 19 yds · 5:32100% → 100%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
0.1%
Robert Davis run for 11 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
0.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Daniel Hurd) to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+9
0.1%
Robert Davis run for 9 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-3
0.1%
Robert Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+3
0.1%
Robert Davis run for 3 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+7
0.1%
Robert Davis run for 7 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.1%
Jason Stewart run for 2 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:23
Brandon Hayes run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-3.4
TD · Q2 2:40
Prescott Line run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)
+2.7
TD · Q2 9:08
Alan Cross run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com