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CONN

UConn 21 at East Carolina 31

ECU
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 23, 2014 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+7.3ECU 88.3%Breon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD,(Warren Harvey KICK)AWAY 14 - HOME 21 · Q3 8:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:58 · Breon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior+22.7Home team on offense+9.7Garbage-time factor+3.3Score differential+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:21: Noel Thomas 32 Yd pass from Chandler Whitmer (Bobby Puyol Kick) — CONN win probability +8.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:58: Breon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +7.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:43: Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 88 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +13.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:15: Warren Harvey 31 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +9.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:25: Breon Allen run for 9 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +6.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:12CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:13ECU 4th & 3 at CONN 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08ECU 4th & 1 at CONN 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:53CONN 4th & 1 at ECU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:05CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:41ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:59CONN 4th & 23 at ECU 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06ECU 4th & 16 at CONN 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:58ECU 4th & 1 at CONN 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−10.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:46CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:02ECU 4th & 7 at CONN 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:05ECU 4th & 5 at CONN 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:13CONN 4th & 9 at ECU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−3.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:43ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 28, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:12CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 35, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:54ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:15CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:15ECU 4th & 12 at CONN 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−4.9
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−22.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:22CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CONN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:52ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:41ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:53CONN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:21CONN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:58ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:43CONN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:25ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 3:5494% → 93%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
93.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+28
93.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 28 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.7%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
93.7%
Chris Hairston run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 9
50
+15
93.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 15 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
93.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 6 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+8
93.4%
Anthony Scott run for 8 yds to the UConn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.3%
Isaiah Jones pass complete to Shane Carden for no gain to the UConn 21Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+13
93.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 13 yds to the UConn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Obi MelifonwuSimilar
Q1 10:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Obi MelifonwuSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
93.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Taylor Hudson) to the UConn 13Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
93.3%
Justin Hardy 13 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:347% → 7%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.2%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
93.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Geremy DavisSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
93.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Geremy Davis for 5 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
93.0%
Justin Wain punt for 37 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 8 yds to the UConn 41 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Personal Foul (Tommy Hopkins) to the UConn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:2293% → 94%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
93.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 11 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
93.1%
Marquez Grayson run for 2 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
93.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-10
93.0%
Carden, Shane pass complete to Hardy, Justin for 14 yards to the UCONN20, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Boyd, J.T.) 10 yards to the UCONN44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 18
OPP 44
+15
92.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 15 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+5
92.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
92.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 9 yds to the UConn 15Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
92.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
92.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+5
92.6%
Breon Allen run for 5 yds to the UConn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
93.8%
Bryce Williams 10 Yd pass from Shane Carden (Warren Harvey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:347% → 9%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+43
93.3%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Thomas Lucas for 43 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
93.0%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 13 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
92.8%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Dhameer Bradley for 11 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
92.9%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
92.8%
Ron Johnson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.8%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q1 1:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.3%
Chandler Whitmer 1 Yd Run (Bobby Puyol Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FUMBLE
15 plays · 36 yds · 3:1892% → 92%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin Hardy, broken up by Marquise VannSimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
91.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 9 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
91.7%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
91.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin Hardy, broken up by Reuben FrankSimilar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+9
91.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 9 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
91.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+10
91.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 10 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
91.8%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-5
91.7%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds to the UConn 36 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Quincy McKinney) to the UConn 46Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 13
OPP 46
-4
91.4%
Shane Carden run for 1 yd to the UConn 45 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Shane Carden) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
50
+15
91.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 15 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
91.6%
Shane Carden run for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 39 Shane Carden fumbled, forced by Graham Stewart, recovered by ECaro Shane CardenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4510% → 10%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
90.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 7 yds to the UConn 46Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-5
90.3%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, False Start (Geremy Davis) to the UConn 41Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
90.4%
Chandler Whitmer pass intercepted Terry Biles return for 4 yds to the UConn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3891% → 92%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
91.4%
Chris Hairston run for 2 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+10
91.3%
Carden, Shane pass complete to Hardy, Justin for 7 yards to the UCONN24, PENALTY UCONN holding (Melifonwu, Obi) 10 yards to the UCONN21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
91.3%
Breon Allen run for 5 yds to the UConn 16Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+10
91.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the UConn 12 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Reuben Frank) to the UConn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.5%
Shane Carden pass intercepted, touchback. Byron Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:399% → 9%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
90.7%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Joshua Marriner for 6 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
90.4%
Joshua Marriner run for 5 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
90.5%
Joshua Marriner run for 2 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-4
90.3%
Tim Boyle sacked by Fred Presley and Brandon Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+4
90.6%
Tim Boyle pass complete to Joshua Marriner for 4 yds to the UConn 33Similar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+3
90.8%
Justin Wain punt for 45 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 3 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1691% → 90%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
90.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 11 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
90.7%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
90.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon Grayson, broken up by Byron JonesSimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
90.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 41 yds, downed at the UConn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT
14 plays · 46 yds · 2:3610% → 10%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
90.2%
Whitmer, Chandler pass incomplete to Lucas, Thomas, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference 15 yards to the UCONN34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCONN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
89.9%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the UConn 36Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+27
89.7%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 12 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Montese Overton) to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
88.8%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
88.6%
Whitmer, Chandler pass incomplete to Thomas, Noel, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Hawkins, Josh) 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCONN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
87.8%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-15
87.8%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Alex Mateas) to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 23
OPP 35
0
88.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Dhameer BradleySimilar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 23
OPP 35
+5
90.0%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Joshua Marriner for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 18
OPP 30
-5
90.4%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, False Start (Tyler Samra) to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 23
OPP 35
0
90.3%
Justin Wain punt for 30 yds, downed at the ECaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11MISSED FG
15 plays · 79 yds · 3:4690% → 88%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
89.7%
Marquez Grayson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 11
0
89.5%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+8
89.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.6%
Breon Allen run for no gain to the ECaro 19Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+36
89.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 36 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
90.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 8 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+1
89.9%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the UConn 36Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+1
89.5%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
90.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 9 yds to the UConn 26Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+21
90.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 21 yds to the UConn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.9%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.9%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
89.4%
Shane Carden sacked by Graham Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 11Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
88.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (NA) to the UConn 16Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
88.0%
Warren Harvey 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
89.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3312% → 24%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.1%
Chandler Whitmer run for 2 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
87.8%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Dhameer Bradley for 1 yd to the UConn 28Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+37
88.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Thomas Lucas for 37 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
85.2%
Ron Johnson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
84.7%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Deshon FoxxSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+32
76.2%
Noel Thomas 32 Yd pass from Chandler Whitmer (Bobby Puyol Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 3:0180% → 88%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
79.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 3 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+53
79.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 53 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
82.7%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
82.6%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jhavon Williams) to the UConn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
82.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 1 yd to the UConn 19Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
82.4%
Shane Carden run for 5 yds to the UConn 14Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
81.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 5 yds to the UConn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
82.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
82.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 8 yds to the UConn 1Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.0%
Shane Carden run for no gain to the UConn 1Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.3%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5614% → 14%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
86.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 1 yd to the UConn 34Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
85.8%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 1 yd to the UConn 35Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
86.4%
Chandler Whitmer run for 5 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
86.0%
Justin Wain punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3588% → 87%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
88.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 18 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
89.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 6 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-10
89.5%
Allen, Breon rush for 21 yards to the UCONN20, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Robertson, Tre) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+6
88.6%
Shane Carden run for 6 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+1
88.6%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the UConn 44Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
87.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Deshon Foxx at the UConn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17TD
2 plays · 88 yds · 0:1315% → 28%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
85.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Dhameer BradleySimilar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+88
71.7%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 88 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:2175% → 74%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
74.5%
Scott, Anthony rush for 12 yards to the EASTCRLINA45, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (McKinney, Quincy) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+21
73.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 21 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
76.3%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+19
76.1%
Shane Carden run for 19 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
77.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
77.3%
Marquez Grayson run for 5 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
75.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
73.5%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4732% → 33%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
68.2%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 31Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+22
67.8%
Ron Johnson run for 22 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
63.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Sean McQuillan for 4 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
63.4%
Joshua Marriner run for 2 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
63.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Dhameer BradleySimilar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 4
OPP 41
-5
65.6%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Delay of Game (NA) to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
67.2%
Justin Wain punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2571% → 67%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
70.5%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
69.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+7
68.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
67.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Deshon Foxx at the UConn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2335% → 37%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
65.0%
Chandler Whitmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
65.5%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+4
65.1%
Chandler Whitmer run for 4 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
63.4%
Justin Wain punt for 38 yds , Justin Hardy returns for no gain to the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1368% → 64%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
67.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 3 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-2
67.2%
Shane Carden run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 27 Shane Carden fumbled, recovered by ECaro Justin HardySimilar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+7
63.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 7 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
63.9%
Worth Gregory punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Deshon Foxx at the UConn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3139% → 36%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
61.2%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Deshon FoxxSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-2
61.7%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 16Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+4
62.8%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Dhameer Bradley for 4 yds to the UConn 20Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
63.7%
Justin Wain punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:0068% → 76%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
67.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (J.T. Boyd) to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+30
64.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 30 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
70.8%
Breon Allen run for 23 yds to the UConn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
70.5%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-3
70.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 15Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+1
66.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 1 yd to the UConn 14Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+31
76.1%
Warren Harvey 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4030% → 26%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
70.4%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the UConn 31Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
70.4%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Deshon FoxxSimilar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
73.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
74.0%
Justin Wain punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 3:5176% → 97%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
76.3%
Breon Allen run for 6 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+8
78.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 8 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
81.1%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Worthy, Cam, PENALTY UCONN pass interference (Summers, Jamar) 15 yards to the UCONN47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
84.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 9 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-2
84.1%
Breon Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 40Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+3
85.2%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Grayson, Davon, PENALTY UCONN pass interference (Summers, Jamar) 3 yards to the UCONN37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
87.4%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the UConn 37Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
88.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon Grayson, broken up by Jhavon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+14
86.8%
Shane Carden run for 14 yds to the UConn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
89.7%
Breon Allen run for 12 yds to the UConn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
90.4%
Breon Allen run for 2 yds to the UConn 9Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
96.9%
Breon Allen run for 9 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 27END OF GAME
11 plays · 63 yds · 1:104% → 4%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
95.8%
Chandler Whitmer run for 3 yds to the UConn 12Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
97.0%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Deshon FoxxSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+11
97.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Noel Thomas for 11 yds to the UConn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
96.9%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Noel Thomas for 14 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Dhameer Bradley for 5 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
96.3%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Brian Lemelle for 10 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
96.0%
Chandler Whitmer run for 11 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.5%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Deshon FoxxSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
95.6%
Chandler Whitmer run for 9 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:43
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 88 yds for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
-13.7
FG · Q4 6:15
Warren Harvey 31 yd FG GOOD
+9.9
TD · Q3 12:21
Noel Thomas 32 Yd pass from Chandler Whitmer (Bobby Puyol Kick)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com