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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:31 · Alex Starzyk punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:03: Kenneth Farrow 4 Yd Run (Kyle Bullard Kick) — HOU win probability +5.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:34: Keith Kirkwood 39 Yd pass from P.J. Walker (Austin Jones Kick) — TEM win probability +7.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 9:00: Ryan Jackson run for 5 yds to the Houst 25 — HOU win probability +8.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:42: Deontay Greenberry 7 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick) — HOU win probability +8.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:51: Ryan Jackson 30 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick) — HOU win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8TEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 14:31TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snapGo for it26.4%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q1 10:06HOU 4th & 7 at TEM 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.8%37% to convertField goal72.8%−<0.145% to makePunt72.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:17TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 9, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it24.7%−0.424% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.0%average punt
- Q1 1:22HOU 4th & 3 at TEM 15, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snapGo for it75.3%51% to convertField goalTheir call75.0%−0.383% to makePunt71.4%−3.9average punt
- Q1 0:00TEM 4th & 5 at HOU 5, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snapGo for it24.9%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call25.0%92% to makePunt21.8%−3.2average punt
- Q2 9:11TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it19.4%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q2 6:10HOU 4th & 16 at TEM 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it80.8%−1.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.2%average punt
- Q2 3:04HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 49, up 14Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snapGo for it83.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.5%−0.9average punt
- Q3 10:23HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snapGo for it75.4%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.4%average punt
- Q3 5:13HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 48, up 7Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snapGo for it81.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.6%−0.9average punt
- Q3 3:21TEM 4th & 10 at HOU 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.0%30% to convertField goal21.8%−0.238% to makePunt21.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 0:00TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q4 13:02HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 33, up 21Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:19TEM 4th & 1 at HOU 2, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%60% to convertField goal1.1%−0.294% to makePunt-0.6%−2.0average punt
- Q4 6:40HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 45, up 21Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:06TEM 4th & 15 at TEM 17, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:11HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.7%97% to makeGo for two74.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:03HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.6%97% to makeGo for two80.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34TEM Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.3%97% to makeGo for two22.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:42HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:51HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1627% → 27%
Q1 14:31
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
73.4%
Alex Starzyk punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FG17 plays · 61 yds · 7:0673% → 73%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
73.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 4 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
73.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+3
72.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 3 yds to the Temp 35Similar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
73.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 4 yds to the Temp 17Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
72.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Emeka Okafor) to the Temp 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
74.2%
P.J. Walker pass intercepted for a TD Trevon Stewart return for 29 yds for a TD (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 1:4326% → 24%
Q1 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
75.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to John Christopher for 5 yds to the Temp 17Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 3
OWN 17
-8
75.6%
Walker, P.J. pass complete to Deloatch, Romond for 19 yards to the TEMPLE36, PENALTY TEMPLE pass interference (Thompson, Colin) 8 yards to the TEMPLE9, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5MISSED FG8 plays · 33 yds · 3:3876% → 76%
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+8
76.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 8 yds to the Temp 39Similar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-14
76.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 1 yd to the Temp 21 HOUSTON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Wayne Beadle) to the Temp 36Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 24
OPP 36
+21
76.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 21 yds to the Temp 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6FG6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0224% → 25%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+72
76.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 72 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD12 plays · 63 yds · 3:4976% → 83%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
76.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (NA) to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+4
75.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+11
75.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 11 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
76.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 8 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+16
77.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 1 yd to the Temp 36 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Temp 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
77.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 13 yds to the Temp 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
77.5%
Jackson, Ryan rush for 5 yards to the TEMPLE3, PENALTY TEMPLE offside 4 yards to the TEMPLE4, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4419% → 18%
HOUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5183% → 83%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
83.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 6 yds to the Temp 48Similar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
83.7%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Stephaun Marshall for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-2
83.2%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Matt Ioannidis for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 49Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
83.0%
Logan Piper punt for 30 yds, fair catch by John Christopher at the Temp 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4017% → 17%
HOUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1184% → 85%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
84.4%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 46 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+10
84.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 10 yds to the Temp 49Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
84.5%
Logan Piper punt for 27 yds, fair catch by John Christopher at the Temp 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12TD9 plays · 76 yds · 2:2616% → 25%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
83.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the Temp 33Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-10
83.0%
Walker, P.J. rush for 2 yards to the TEMPLE35, PENALTY TEMPLE holding (Lofton, Eric) 10 yards to the TEMPLE23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-8
84.6%
P.J. Walker sacked by Gavin Stansbury for a loss of 8 yards to the Temp 15Similar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
84.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
83.8%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 9 yds to the Houst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14FUMBLE12 plays · 29 yds · 4:2777% → 76%
Q3 14:10
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+9
76.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 9 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+12
75.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 12 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+9
76.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 9 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
78.7%
Farrow, Kenneth rush for 34 yards to the TEMPLE26, PENALTY HOUSTON holding 10 yards to the HOUSTON30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
78.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 3 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-5
78.2%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Haason Reddick and Brandon Chudnoff for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 10
OWN 40
-2
75.8%
Logan Piper punt for 35 yds , John Christopher returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 23 John Christopher fumbled, recovered by TempSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15FUMBLE3 plays · 75 yds · 1:0324% → 29%
HOUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 3:4779% → 80%
TEMDrive 17FUMBLE7 plays · 34 yds · 1:3923% → 23%
HOUDrive 18TD5 plays · 54 yds · 1:2383% → 93%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+30
82.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 30 yds to the Temp 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+16
84.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 7 yds to the Temp 17 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Jihaad Pretlow) to the Temp 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.2%
Deontay Greenberry 7 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
90.0%
P.J. Walker pass intercepted Howard Wilson return for no gain to the Temp 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD2 plays · 26 yds · 0:2494% → 98%
TEMDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:452% → 2%
HOUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5398% → 99%
TEMDrive 23DOWNS9 plays · 65 yds · 2:312% → 1%
Q4 12:20
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+40
98.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to John Christopher for 25 yds to the HOUSTON 44 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (William Jackson) to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 42 yds · 3:3199% → 99%
Q4 9:20
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+18
99.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 18 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
99.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 17 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+2
99.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 2 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 7 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
99.2%
Logan Piper punt for 33 yds, fair catch by John Christopher at the Temp 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:321% → 1%
HOUDrive 26END OF GAME8 plays · 25 yds · 4:4699% → 100%
Q4 4:00
2ND & 3
50
+7
99.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 7 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:42
Deontay Greenberry 7 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Kyle Bullard Kick)
+8.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 9:00
Ryan Jackson run for 5 yds to the Houst 25
+8.2
TD · Q2 0:34
Keith Kirkwood 39 Yd pass from P.J. Walker (Austin Jones Kick)
-7.7