Try the model
CIN

Cincinnati 41 at SMU 3

SMU
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:33 · Sam Geraci punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−43.1Pregame prior−14.0Score differential−22.1Garbage-time factor−12.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:07: Rod Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz MISSED) — SMU win probability +0.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:20: Andrew Gantz 40 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +0.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:25: Jarred Evans run for 7 yds for a TD, (Gunner Kiel failed ) — CIN win probability +2.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:38: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +9.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:56: Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 12:07SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:47SMU 4th & 10 at CIN 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:47CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:20SMU 4th & 15 at CIN 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:25SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 29, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:52SMU 4th & 4 at CIN 44, down 25
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−2.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:28CIN 4th & 1 at midfield, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.8%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:11CIN 4th & 4 at SMU 13, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:04SMU 4th & 2 at CIN 14, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:33CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 24, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:03CIN 4th & 5 at SMU 44, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:50SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 9, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:55CIN 4th & 4 at SMU 4, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:48SMU 4th & 7 at CIN 16, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 1:38CIN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:56CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:5385% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
15.0%
Gunner Kiel run for 14 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
15.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
15.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 12 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
15.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Stephon SandersSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+27
15.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Rod Moore for 27 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
15.0%
Gunner Kiel run for 3 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
15.0%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.0%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz MISSED)Similar
Q1 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
15.6%
MILIANO, Tony kickoff 65 yards to the SMU0, touchback, PENALTY CIN offside 5 yards to the CIN30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2FG
19 plays · 64 yds · 7:2016% → 19%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.1%
Garrett Krstich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Nate Halverson for 15 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
16.2%
Darius Durall run for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
16.1%
Garrett Krstich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+9
16.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Nate Halverson for 9 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
16.2%
Kevin Pope run for 3 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
16.3%
Garrett Krstich run for 4 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
16.3%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Durall for 2 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+6
16.3%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 6 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
16.3%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 9 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+4
16.4%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
16.4%
Garrett Krstich run for 12 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
16.4%
Garrett Krstich run for 1 yd to the Cincy 10Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
16.4%
Garrett Krstich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+8
16.3%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Durall for 8 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 1
OPP 2
-9
19.0%
POPE,Kevin rush for 2 yards to the CIN0, clock 04:52, PENALTY SMU holding (NWOSU,Cameron) 9 yards to the CIN11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
19.5%
Cody Rademacher 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
19.2%
RADEMACHER,C kickoff 65 yards to the CIN0, HOLTON, Johnny return to the CIN21, out-of-bounds (SMITH,Cameron), PENALTY SMU offside (NELSON,Stephen) 5 yards to the SMU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
19.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 14 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
19.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex Chisum, broken up by Shakiel RandolphSimilar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
19.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 6 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
19.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
19.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 29 , Daijuan Stewart returns for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4INT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
20.1%
Garrett Krstich run for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
20.5%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+14
19.9%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 14 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
20.9%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Nate Halverson for 11 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
21.1%
Garrett Krstich pass intercepted Howard Wilder return for no gain to the Cincy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4979% → 81%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
21.1%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+12
21.2%
Gunner Kiel run for 12 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
20.9%
Rod Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+32
21.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 17 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (Der'rikk Thompson) to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
20.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 16 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
20.3%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete, PENALTY CIN holding (MURRAY, Justin) 10 yards to the SMU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+19
20.5%
Rod Moore run for 19 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+5
19.9%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
19.9%
KIEL, Gunner pass complete to HOLTON, Johnny for 10 yards to the SMU13 (POPE,Kevin;RICHARDSON,D), PENALTY CIN unsportsmanlike conduct (EVANS, Jarred) 15 yards to the SMU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 38
+9
20.5%
Rod Moore run for 9 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+7
20.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 7 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+40
19.5%
Andrew Gantz 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
21.0%
Prescott Line run for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
21.8%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Nate Halverson for 7 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.9%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete, broken up by Brad HarrahSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
21.4%
Darius Durall run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+21
20.8%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 21 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
22.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for no gain to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
22.4%
Darius Durall run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
21.2%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Darius Joseph, broken up by Andre JonesSimilar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
20.5%
Jackson Koonce punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 3:1379% → 83%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
20.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 3 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+15
20.6%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to CHISUM, Alex, PENALTY SMU pass interference (RICHARDSON,H) 15 yards to the CIN25, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.1%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
19.8%
Mike Boone run for 8 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
19.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 39 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
18.7%
Gunner Kiel run for 11 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
18.7%
Jarred Evans run for 6 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
16.6%
Jarred Evans run for 7 yds for a TD, (Gunner Kiel failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.1%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
16.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Cedric Lancaster for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
16.5%
Jackson Koonce punt for 46 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:4883% → 93%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
17.5%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+13
17.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Casey Gladney for 13 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Defensive holding (NA) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
16.8%
Rod Moore run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
16.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+48
17.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Casey Gladney for 48 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
16.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Casey Gladney) to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
7.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3811% → 3%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
10.8%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Prescott Line for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+27
2.8%
Garrett Krstich sacked by Jeff Luc for a loss of 6 yards Garrett Krstich fumbled, recovered by Cincy Nick Temple , return for 0 yards , return for 27 ydsSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-27
2.8%
Nick Temple 27 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11END OF HALF
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:113% → 3%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.7%
SMU Penalty, delay of game (NA) to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
2.3%
Prescott Line run for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.7%
Prescott Line run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
2.7%
Prescott Line run for 7 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
2.7%
Prescott Line run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
50
+5
2.8%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
2.9%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Nate HalversonSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+1
2.9%
Darius Durall run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
2.8%
Jackson Koonce punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 6:1797% → 98%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
3.0%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
3.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+16
3.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 16 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
2.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
2.9%
Rod Moore run for no gain to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+9
3.0%
Gunner Kiel run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 1
50
+1
3.1%
Gunner Kiel run for 1 yd to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
2.8%
Jarred Evans run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+12
2.8%
Jarred Evans pass complete to Nate Cole for 12 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
2.8%
Jarred Evans run for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+10
2.7%
Jarred Evans run for 10 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
2.7%
Jarred Evans run for 5 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
2.7%
Jarred Evans run for 3 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-2
2.9%
Jarred Evans pass complete to Max Morrison for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 13Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
2.5%
Andrew Gantz 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 56 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
3.4%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Cedric Lancaster for 36 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
4.0%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Cedric Lancaster, broken up by Kevin BrownSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
3.9%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 12 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
4.0%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Prescott Line for 9 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-1
3.8%
Prescott Line run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 14Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
3.7%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 2
OPP 14
0
3.7%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Darius Joseph, broken up by Zach EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
1.8%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+9
1.7%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 9 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
1.7%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
1.7%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Alex Chisum, broken up by Shakiel RandolphSimilar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-4
1.8%
Munchie Legaux sacked by Zach Wood for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
2.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
50
+32
1.6%
Garrett Krstich pass intercepted Andre Jones return for 32 yds to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
1.6%
Munchie Legaux run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+8
1.7%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Shaq Washington for 8 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
1.7%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Casey GladneySimilar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
2.0%
John Lloyd punt for 42 yds , Daijuan Stewart returns for no gain to the SMU 2 Daijuan Stewart fumbled, recovered by Cincy Howard WilderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:5099% → 100%
Q3 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.2%
Rod Moore run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.5%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
0.4%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-4
0.3%
Matt Davis sacked by Terrell Hartsfield for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 13
OWN 10
-1
0.3%
Matt Davis pass complete to Daijuan Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 9Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 14
OWN 9
+13
0.3%
Jackson Koonce punt for 43 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 13 yds to the SMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
0.4%
Jarred Evans run for 12 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
0.4%
Chad Banschbach run for 2 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+17
0.4%
Jarred Evans run for 17 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
0.4%
Chad Banschbach run for 5 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
0.4%
Jarred Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.4%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Johnny Holton, broken up by Jr RichardsonSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
0.3%
Andrew Gantz 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 59 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
0.2%
Luke Seeker run for no gain to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
0.2%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+13
0.2%
Matt Davis run for 13 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
0.2%
DAVIS,Matt pass intercepted by JACOBS, Carter at the SMU45, JACOBS, Carter return to the SMU23, out-of-bounds (DAVIS,Matt), PENALTY CIN pass interference (JACOBS, Carter) 14 yards to the SMU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
0.2%
DAVIS,Matt pass complete to SEEKER, Luke for no gain to the SMU44 (MAINELLO, D.), PENALTY SMU holding (STAFFORD,Aaron) 10 yards to the SMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 20
OWN 34
-1
0.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Prescott Line for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 21
OWN 33
+8
0.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Daijuan Stewart for 8 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+40
0.2%
Matt Davis run for 40 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
0.2%
Luke Seeker run for 3 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
0.2%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
0.2%
Matt Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 7
OPP 16
-8
0.2%
Matt Davis sacked by Dominic Mainello for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 73 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
0.2%
Chad Banschbach run for 9 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+15
0.2%
Chad Banschbach run for no gain to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
0.2%
Chad Banschbach run for 9 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+2
0.2%
Chad Banschbach run for 2 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.2%
Chad Banschbach run for 5 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+7
0.2%
Munchie Legaux run for 7 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
0.2%
Chad Banschbach run for 10 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
0.2%
Chad Banschbach run for 13 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
0.1%
Chad Banschbach run for 3 yds to the SMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:38
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 4:25
Jarred Evans run for 7 yds for a TD, (Gunner Kiel failed )
-2.1
TD · Q1 12:07
Rod Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz MISSED)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com