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TULN

Tulane 13 at UCF 20

UCF
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreTULN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:56 · TEAM run for a loss of 32 yards to the Tulan 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tulan Peter Picerelli
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+31.3Home team on offense−1.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:20: William Stanback 1 Yd Run (Shawn Moffitt Kick) — UCF win probability +4.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:14: Andrew DiRocco 42 Yd Field Goal — TULN win probability +2.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:35: Breshad Perriman 45 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Shawn Moffitt Kick) — UCF win probability +7.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:36: Lazedrick Thompson 9 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick) — TULN win probability +11.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:29: Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 22 — UCF win probability +6.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 8TULN made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:08TULN 4th & 7 at UCF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:15UCF 4th & 4 at TULN 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.4%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:16TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:33UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 16, tied
    Close callWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:12TULN 4th & 4 at UCF 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:06UCF 4th & 5 at TULN 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:56TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:33UCF 4th & 25 at TULN 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:41TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:18UCF 4th & 8 at TULN 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:02TULN 4th & 1 at UCF 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−1.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:40TULN 4th & 12 at TULN 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:14TULN 4th & 10 at UCF 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:01TULN 4th & 8 at UCF 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:51UCF 4th & 1 at TULN 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−1.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−5.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:28UCF 4th & 11 at TULN 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:41TULN 4th & 2 at UCF 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−2.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−8.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:03UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:58TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TULN made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 4:20UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:35UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:36TULN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1189% → 89%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.8%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
88.6%
Justin Holman sacked by Tyler Gilbert for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
88.5%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Edward Williams return for no gain to the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0212% → 12%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
88.3%
Sherman Badie run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+6
88.2%
Nick Montana pass complete to Charles Jones for 6 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
88.0%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Justyn ShacklefordSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
88.0%
Andrew DiRocco 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:4288% → 87%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.1%
Justin Holman run for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
88.0%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
87.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 12 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
87.8%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 8
50
+4
87.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 4 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
87.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
87.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the Tulan 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4613% → 13%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
87.1%
Nick Montana pass complete to Sherman Badie for 3 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
86.9%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Dontrell HilliardSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
87.0%
Nick Montana pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
87.1%
Peter Picerelli punt for 61 yds, downed at the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2587% → 86%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
86.8%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-3
86.5%
William Stanback run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 11
OWN 16
0
86.2%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 11
OWN 16
-8
85.9%
Caleb Houston run for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 8 Caleb Houston fumbled, forced by Matthew Bailey, recovered by Tulan Tristan CooperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1214% → 15%
Q1 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
85.6%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 6 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
85.3%
Lazedrick Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 4Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
85.3%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Leondre JamesSimilar
Q1 5:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
85.2%
Andrew DiRocco 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:0085% → 85%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
85.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 23 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
85.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
85.3%
Holman, Justin pass pass intercepted by Doss, Lorenzo at the TULANE5, Doss, Lorenzo return 0 yards to the TULANE5, PENALTY TULANE offside (LaFrance, Royce) 5 yards to the TULANE47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
85.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Dontravious WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
85.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
84.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the Tulan 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8FUMBLE
9 plays · 1 yds · 3:4615% → 18%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
84.7%
Dontrell Hilliard run for no gain to the Tulan 14Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
84.6%
Nick Montana run for 3 yds to the Tulan 17Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+11
84.5%
Nick Montana pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 11 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
83.7%
Sherman Badie run for 4 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+8
83.3%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 8 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.7%
Nick Montana pass complete to Leondre James for no gain to the Tulan 40Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
82.6%
Sherman Badie run for 8 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-1
82.3%
Nick Montana pass complete to Danté Butler for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 47Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 3
OWN 47
-32
82.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 32 yards to the Tulan 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tulan Peter PicerelliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9FG
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:1784% → 83%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
84.0%
Wilson, Dontravious rush for 1 yard to the TULANE14, PENALTY UCF holding (Brown, Chester) 10 yards to the TULANE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 20
OPP 25
0
83.7%
Nick Patti pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 20
OPP 25
-10
83.3%
Patti, Nick pass incomplete to Perriman, Breshad, PENALTY UCF holding (Brown, Chester) 10 yards to the TULANE35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 30
OPP 35
0
83.1%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 30
OPP 35
+5
82.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 25
OPP 30
+47
83.0%
Shawn Moffitt 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4117% → 18%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.7%
Nick Montana pass complete to Charles Jones for 4 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
82.3%
Sherman Badie run for 1 yd to the Tulan 30Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
82.4%
Nick Montana pass complete to Devon Breaux for 5 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
81.8%
Sherman Badie run for 4 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
80.9%
Nick Montana pass complete to Sherman Badie for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 38Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
81.3%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Leondre JamesSimilar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
82.0%
Peter Picerelli punt for 47 yds, downed at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 6:1582% → 87%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
82.2%
Nick Patti pass complete to J.J. Worton for 9 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 24
-4
82.3%
William Stanback run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+16
81.2%
Nick Patti run for 16 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
82.1%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+6
81.4%
Nick Patti pass complete to J.J. Worton for 6 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+11
81.5%
Nick Patti pass complete to Rannell Hall for 11 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
82.2%
William Stanback run for 19 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
82.3%
William Stanback run for 9 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+6
82.1%
William Stanback run for 6 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
81.9%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the Tulan 12Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+11
81.7%
William Stanback run for 11 yds to the Tulan 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.9%
William Stanback 1 Yd Run (Shawn Moffitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12INT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1215% → 14%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
85.5%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Devon BreauxSimilar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
85.7%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Sherman BadieSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+5
86.2%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Terrance Plummer) to the Tulan 22Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+2
86.0%
Nick Montana pass intercepted Jacoby Glenn return for 2 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2787% → 87%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
86.8%
Patti, Nick pass incomplete to Worton, J.J., PENALTY TULANE holding (Marley, Nico) 10 yards to the TULANE15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
86.8%
William Stanback run for no gain to the Tulan 15Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
86.8%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the Tulan 13Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
86.1%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
87.0%
Shawn Moffitt 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 2:0413% → 14%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.3%
Sherman Badie run for 11 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
86.9%
Sherman Badie run for 5 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
86.2%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 7 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
86.2%
Sherman Badie run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 8
50
+14
85.5%
Nick Montana pass complete to Terren Encalade for 14 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.7%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Justyn ShacklefordSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
85.9%
Nick Montana run for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+5
86.1%
Nick Montana pass complete to Teddy Veal for 5 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
86.2%
Nick Montana pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
88.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0514% → 12%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.4%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 11 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.8%
Nick Montana run for 2 yds to the Tulan 38Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-4
86.5%
Sherman Badie run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 34Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
87.7%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Leondre JamesSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
88.0%
Peter Picerelli punt for 35 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-7
87.6%
William Stanback run for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 24 William Stanback fumbled, recovered by Tulan Brandon LeBeauSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0415% → 16%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
84.8%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 1 yd to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
84.7%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Leondre JamesSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-1
85.8%
Nick Montana pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24 TULANE Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
83.6%
Andrew DiRocco 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:2586% → 92%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
85.9%
Justin Holman sacked by Edward Williams and Zachery Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+7
84.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 7 yds to the Tulan 45Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+45
91.9%
Breshad Perriman 45 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Shawn Moffitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:199% → 9%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
91.4%
Sherman Badie run for 8 yds to the Tulan 17Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+1
90.9%
Sherman Badie run for 1 yd to the Tulan 18Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
91.1%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 3 yds to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+31
91.0%
Nick Montana pass complete to Charles Jones for 31 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
89.7%
Nick Montana pass complete to Sherman Badie for 2 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
89.8%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Xavier RushSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
90.2%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Justyn ShacklefordSimilar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
90.8%
Peter Picerelli punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21INT
3 plays · 25 yds · 1:0093% → 93%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
92.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+16
92.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 30 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Personal Foul (Royce LaFrance) to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
93.4%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Parry Nickerson return for 9 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:329% → 9%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.8%
Sherman Badie run for no gain to the Tulan 41Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+21
91.5%
Nick Montana pass intercepted Brandon Alexander return for 21 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5894% → 94%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
93.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 6 yds to the Tulan 21Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
93.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
94.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the Tulan 18Similar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
94.3%
J.J. Worton pass incomplete to Justin HolmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 4:548% → 20%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
92.3%
Nick Montana pass complete to Trey Scott for 6 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
91.9%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Trey ScottSimilar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+5
92.4%
Nick Montana pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 5 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
92.0%
Nick Montana pass complete to Teddy Veal for 9 yds to the Tulan 38Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
92.3%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Trey ScottSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+41
92.4%
Nick Montana pass complete to Teddy Veal for 41 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
91.2%
Lazedrick Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-10
91.6%
Veal, Teddy rush for loss of 2 yards to the UCF21, PENALTY TULANE holding (Scott, Trey) 10 yards to the UCF29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 21
OPP 29
+21
91.8%
Nick Montana run for 11 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Terrance Plummer) to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.3%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Matt MarfisiSimilar
Q4 12:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
91.3%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (Charles Jones) to the UCF 13Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
91.7%
Montana, Nick pass incomplete to Veal, Teddy, PENALTY UCF personal foul (Spencer, Domenic) 7 yards to the UCF6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULANE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
91.3%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 2 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
91.5%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (Charles Jones) to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
80.0%
Lazedrick Thompson 9 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 4:0888% → 89%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
88.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Tarik Cook) to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
88.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Dontravious WilsonSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+12
87.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 12 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+6
89.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 6 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
90.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 17 yds to the TULANE 35 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the Tulan 45Similar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 3
OPP 45
+4
90.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
90.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the Tulan 41Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-7
90.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulan 48Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+6
89.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 6 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
88.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the Tulan 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 26DOWNS
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:3413% → 13%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
87.0%
Sherman Badie run for 8 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 2
OWN 22
0
85.7%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Lazedrick ThompsonSimilar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+14
87.3%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 14 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
85.6%
TULANE Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Tulan 21Similar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
87.2%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 21 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
85.0%
Montana, Nick pass incomplete to Shackleford, Justyn, PENALTY UCF holding (Ozerities, Jordan) 10 yards to the UCF48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULANE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.2%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Justyn ShacklefordSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
83.8%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 13 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
81.6%
Lazedrick Thompson run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
82.6%
Nick Montana pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+8
87.0%
Nick Montana pass complete to Xavier Rush for 8 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 2
OPP 27
-1
87.5%
Lazedrick Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2694% → 93%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
94.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 16
OWN 22
0
94.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 16
OWN 22
+12
94.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 12 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
92.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the Tulan 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5910% → 9%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.3%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Justyn ShacklefordSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.5%
Nick Montana sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for 0 yards to the Tulan 29 Nick Montana fumbled, forced by Jamiyus Pittman, recovered by TulanSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
90.3%
Nick Montana pass incomplete to Dontrell HilliardSimilar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
91.5%
Nick Montana pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:1797% → 97%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
96.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+2
97.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-4
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:36
Lazedrick Thompson 9 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)
-11.5
TD · Q3 9:35
Breshad Perriman 45 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Shawn Moffitt Kick)
+7
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:29
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 22
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com