Try the model
HOU

Houston 28 at Memphis 24

MEM
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:40 · Logan Piper punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Houst 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense−15.1Pregame prior+0.9Garbage-time factor−6.9Score differential−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:29: Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +6.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:44: Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +7.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:01: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +9.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:36: Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +17.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:34: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 25 yds for a TD MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +25.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:57MEM 4th & 6 at HOU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:57HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:51HOU 4th & 14 at MEM 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:51MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:44HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:17MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:18HOU 4th & 16 at HOU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:05HOU 4th & 16 at HOU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−2.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:11MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:31MEM 4th & 6 at HOU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:27MEM 4th & 14 at HOU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−3.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−12.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:19HOU 4th & 17 at HOU 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−8.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:50MEM 4th & 3 at HOU 46, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.3 ptsPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−6.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−5.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:40HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−2.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:59HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−3.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:35MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:29MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:47HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:44HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:01MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:36HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:34HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
61.7%
Demarcus Ayers run for 6 yds to the Houst 31 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding (Wayne Beadle) to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 16
OWN 19
+7
61.7%
Deontay Greenberry run for 7 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
61.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Fritz Etienne return for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0662% → 62%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
61.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 5 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-1
61.8%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
61.8%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
61.8%
Jake Elliott 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
61.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
61.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-2
61.6%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+9
61.7%
Logan Piper punt for 38 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 9 yds to the Memph 42 MEMPHIS Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:2262% → 65%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
61.6%
Sam Craft run for 8 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+6
61.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 6 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
61.9%
Keiwone Malone run for 9 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+1
62.1%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
62.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 18 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
62.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 12 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
64.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:4136% → 34%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
63.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Wayne Beadle, broken up by Ryan ColemanSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+29
63.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 29 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
63.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
63.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
63.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 10 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+29
63.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 29 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
62.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-1
62.7%
Demarcus Ayers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 20Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+15
63.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 15 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
62.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 10Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
62.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 14Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
65.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Markeith AmblesSimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
65.8%
Kyle Bullard 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
66.2%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 17Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+8
66.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 8 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-1
65.9%
Paxton Lynch run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
65.3%
Spencer Smith punt for 43 yds , Steven Aikens returns for no gain to the Houst 33 Steven Aikens fumbled, recovered by Memph Wynton McManisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:5168% → 75%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
67.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 13 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
67.8%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
67.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Houst 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+8
68.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 8 yds to the Houst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.6%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4228% → 33%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
71.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
71.7%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
66.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 64 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
68.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+19
68.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 19 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
69.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 6 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
69.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Adrian HendersonSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+64
68.9%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Lee Hightower return for 54 yds to the Memph 0 HOUSTON Penalty, illegal block (Efrem Oliphant) to the Memph 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:3735% → 43%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
65.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+10
65.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
65.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 6 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0062% → 64%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
62.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 24 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
64.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
64.2%
Sam Craft run for 6 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-2
64.1%
Paxton Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 36 Paxton Lynch fumbled, recovered by Houst Jeremiah FarleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
58.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the Houst 43 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, forced by Tank Jakes, recovered by Memph Tank JakesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13INT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
64.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 7 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
64.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
64.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
65.0%
Sam Craft run for 7 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
65.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-14
64.1%
LYNCH, Paxton pass complete to PROCTOR, Roderick for 2 yards to the HOU23, PENALTY MEM sideline interference (MAYHUE, Phil) 14 yards to the HOU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+5
62.3%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Efrem Oliphant return for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
58.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Tank JakesSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
58.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+2
59.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
59.9%
Logan Piper punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
62.2%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Joey Mbu for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
62.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
60.9%
Brandon Hayes run for no gain to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
60.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:4042% → 41%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
57.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
58.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 11
OWN 29
-5
59.1%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jackson Dillon and Ricky Hunter for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+23
59.1%
Logan Piper punt for 38 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 23 yds to the Houst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:0563% → 72%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
63.4%
Sam Craft run for 9 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
64.1%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
64.1%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+10
63.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 10 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+20
72.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18END OF HALF
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5429% → 26%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
70.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
71.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 5
OWN 21
-2
73.7%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
71.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for no gain to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
71.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin Jones, broken up by Joey MbuSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
70.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
69.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
70.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+4
68.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
69.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-2
68.4%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-9
69.8%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Terry Redden and Charles Harris for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
72.4%
Logan Piper punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
72.7%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
72.6%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+5
72.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 5 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
73.0%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
72.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 2 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+4
72.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
72.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Ayers at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:3727% → 51%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
72.6%
Demarcus Ayers run for 7 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+18
71.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 18 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
70.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 19 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
69.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
69.3%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+32
70.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 32 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
67.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 6 yds to the Memph 3Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.0%
Brandon Hayes run for 9 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
61.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
60.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-2
58.8%
Roderick Proctor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+15
56.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 15 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
62.6%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
60.7%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
62.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Roderick Proctor, broken up by Trevon StewartSimilar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
58.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 32 yds, downed at the Houst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:5445% → 76%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
54.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
55.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete, broken up by Ricky HunterSimilar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+26
56.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 26 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
51.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+12
50.7%
WARD Jr., Greg pass incomplete to AYERS, Demarcus, PENALTY MEM pass interference (GAINES, Andrew) 12 yards to the MEM40, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
50.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
49.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+9
49.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 9 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
23.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 25 yds for a TD MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 6:0032% → 38%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
32.0%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+20
32.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 20 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
35.5%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
35.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin Jones, broken up by Adrian McDonaldSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+10
34.2%
LYNCH, Paxton pass incomplete to CRAFT, Sam, PENALTY HOU holding (JACKSON, Ryan) 10 yards to the HOU42, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
37.1%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+24
36.6%
Brandon Hayes run for 24 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
39.1%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+1
39.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Houst 12Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+9
36.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 9 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
39.1%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 4Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.1%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Houst 4Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
36.8%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 10 yards to the Houst 14Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
37.5%
Jake Elliott 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0071% → 68%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
28.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 17Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-4
29.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 13Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
30.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Wayne BeadleSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
32.2%
Logan Piper punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
41.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 6 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
42.7%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
41.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Keiwone MaloneSimilar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
38.6%
Nick Jacobs punt for 42 yds, downed at the Houst 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 72%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
24.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 9
-1
24.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 8Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
26.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
27.8%
Logan Piper punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 29FUMBLE
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
36.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 14 yds Tevin Jones fumbled, forced by William Jackson, recovered by Houst William JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:5183% → 86%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
17.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-3
16.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+1
18.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 11
OWN 27
+2
13.6%
Logan Piper punt for 49 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 2 yds to the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 31INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:0024% → 28%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
23.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 8 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+10
26.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 10 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
26.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 5 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+18
28.3%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Efrem Oliphant return for 18 yds to the Memph 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0195% → 94%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
4.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-2
5.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+5
5.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, offside defense (Ricky Hunter) to the Memph 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:34
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 25 yds for a TD MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-25.7
TD · Q3 4:36
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q2 1:01
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com