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CIN

Cincinnati 34 at Miami 55

MIA
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:40 · Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny Holton
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 192Pregame prior+1.1Home team on offense+32.0Score differential+22.9Garbage-time factor+8.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.4Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:57: Phillip Dorsett 28 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +4.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:59: Andrew Gantz 33 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +2.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:46: Michael Badgley 42 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +3.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:15: Gunner Kiel pass intercepted for a TD Tyriq McCord return for 46 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +6.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:16: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 79 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +2.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:40CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:05CIN 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MIA 4th & 14 at CIN 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:10CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:57CIN 4th & 5 at MIA 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:46MIA 4th & 7 at CIN 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:46CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:15CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:53MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:13CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:10MIA 4th & 6 at CIN 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:34CIN 4th & 7 at MIA 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:17MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 40, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:02CIN 4th & 8 at MIA 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:27MIA 4th & 10 at CIN 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:40CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:17MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:54CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:02MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:57MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:15MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:16MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55CIN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:00MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:17CIN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:02MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
84.4%
Duke Johnson run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
84.4%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Terrell Hartsfield for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 30
-5
84.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Nick Linder) to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 25
+6
84.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 6 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+4
84.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 4 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
84.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny Holton, broken up by Artie BurnsSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
83.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 15 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
83.7%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
83.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Rod MooreSimilar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
83.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Tyriq McCordSimilar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
83.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
84.1%
Duke Johnson run for 80 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:2316% → 19%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
84.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 11 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
84.0%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
83.9%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
83.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+9
83.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 1
50
+16
83.8%
Rod Moore run for 1 yd to the MIAMIFL 49 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
83.6%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
83.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+17
83.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 17 yds to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
83.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Rod MooreSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
83.6%
EJ Junior run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
81.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 11 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 1:5282% → 85%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
82.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Duke JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
82.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+36
81.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 36 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
82.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+21
82.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 21 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
82.8%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
84.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 14 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6INT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
83.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 1 yd to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+17
83.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 17 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
83.3%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
83.1%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 2
50
+6
83.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 6 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
83.0%
Jarred Evans run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-3
83.0%
Jarred Evans sacked by Jermaine Grace for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+18
83.1%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Ladarius Gunter return for 18 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:0584% → 83%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
83.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, personal foul (Corn Elder) to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
83.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 15 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
83.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 18 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
84.2%
Duke Johnson run for 2 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-13
84.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 2 yds to the MiaFl 40 MIAMI FL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Clive Walford) to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 45
0
83.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 45
+7
83.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 7 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
83.0%
Justin Vogel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
83.1%
Gunner Kiel run for 1 yd to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+15
83.2%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to MOORE, Chris, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Corn Elder) 15 yards to the CIN29, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
82.9%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-5
82.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
83.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKay, broken up by Ladarius GunterSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+9
83.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 9 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
83.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Phillip Dorsett at the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:5283% → 88%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+26
83.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Herb Waters for 26 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
84.0%
Duke Johnson run for 12 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
84.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 16 yards to the CIN20 (HOLTON, Johnny), PENALTY MIAMI illegal block (S. McDermott) 15 yards to the MIAMI49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 25
OWN 49
+22
83.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 22 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+1
84.3%
Duke Johnson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+28
88.3%
Phillip Dorsett 28 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 2:5813% → 15%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.5%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+31
87.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 31 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
86.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 5 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
86.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to DJ Dowdy, broken up by Olsen PierreSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
86.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris Moore, broken up by Artie BurnsSimilar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+30
86.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 30 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-11
86.1%
Rod Moore run for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
86.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to DJ DowdySimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
87.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
84.9%
Andrew Gantz 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:1386% → 90%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
86.1%
Duke Johnson run for 17 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
86.7%
Duke Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
86.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 9 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
86.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 18 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
86.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-3
86.9%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+3
86.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Duke Johnson for 3 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
89.5%
Michael Badgley 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.6%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
88.4%
Rod Moore run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to EJ JuniorSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+30
89.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIAMIFL 45 MIAMI FL Penalty, OFF ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13INT TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4511% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.7%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+46
94.9%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted for a TD Tyriq McCord return for 46 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
94.9%
Jarred Evans sacked by Artie Burns for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
95.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 16Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+10
95.0%
Jarred Evans run for 10 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
95.0%
Jarred Evans pass incomplete to Chris Moore, broken up by Artie BurnsSimilar
Q3 14:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
95.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Stacy Coley at the MiaFl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
96.2%
Duke Johnson run for no gain to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
96.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
96.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
95.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
95.4%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+9
95.3%
Jarred Evans run for 9 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
95.2%
Jarred Evans run for 1 yd to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
95.3%
Jarred Evans run for 2 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
95.2%
Jarred Evans pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
95.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:4197% → 98%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
96.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+18
96.8%
Duke Johnson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Brown) to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
96.9%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Silverberry Mouhon for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+12
96.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 12 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+27
96.8%
Duke Johnson run for 27 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
96.9%
Gus Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+5
96.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Clive Walford for 5 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
96.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
97.5%
Michael Badgley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:363% → 3%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
97.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Gus Edwards) to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
97.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 15 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
97.1%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+7
97.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 7 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
96.9%
Gunner Kiel run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
96.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
96.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Raphael KirbySimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+3
97.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Rod Moore for 3 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
97.3%
Andrew Gantz 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
99.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Phillip Dorsett for 79 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:210% → 2%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
99.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 11 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
99.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 10 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
99.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 9 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+6
99.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 6 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
99.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 22 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.7%
Shaq Washington pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+10
99.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 10 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.6%
Gunner Kiel run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5599% → 100%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+62
98.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 62 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.1%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Brad Kaaya run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:430% → 1%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 15 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.8%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to WASHINGTON, S., PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (Chad Thomas) 15 yards to the MIAMI45, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
98.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 45 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.2%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-13
99.2%
Jake Heaps sacked by TEAM for a loss of 13 yards to the MiaFl 33 MIAMI FL Penalty, intentional grounding (Jake Heaps) to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+12
99.1%
Gus Edwards run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 6
OWN 45
-5
99.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Artie Burns) to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+48
99.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 48 yds , Shaq Washington returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
98.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 4 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+25
98.8%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Raphael Kirby return for 10 yds to the Cincy 25 MIAMI FL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Raphael Kirby) to the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 1:3299% → 100%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
99.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Raphael Kirby) to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.3%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+40
99.9%
Gus Edwards run for 40 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
99.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 11 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
99.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 9 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max Morrison, broken up by Jamal CarterSimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
99.9%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-3
99.9%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Tyriq McCord for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 37 yds , Herb Waters returns for 1 yd to the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
99.9%
Gus Edwards run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Ryan Williams pass incomplete to Herb WatersSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
99.5%
Carter Jacobs 27 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
99.6%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 47 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+3
99.5%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 17
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Gus Edwards run for no gain to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+7
99.5%
Gus Edwards run for 7 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 3 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+2
99.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 2 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+3
99.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 3 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
99.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:15
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted for a TD Tyriq McCord return for 46 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q2 7:57
Phillip Dorsett 28 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)
+4
FG · Q2 0:46
Michael Badgley 42 yd FG GOOD
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com