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BYU

BYU 24 at UCF 31

UCF
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 9, 2014 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:11 · Scott Arellano punt for 58 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 7 yds to the UCF 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 41Home team on offense+3.6Pregame prior+5.0Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:30: Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 15 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +14.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:05: Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 14 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +19.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:37: William Stanback run for 2 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +18.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:17: Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 37 yds for a TD BYU Penalty, Offside Defense (AJ Moore) declined, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +29.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for 4 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +14.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 10BYU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 8:54UCF 4th & 1 at BYU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.9%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    59.6%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:37UCF 4th & 2 at BYU 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:35BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:23UCF 4th & 4 at BYU 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:11BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:49UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:28BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 39, down 10
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:27UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 9, up 10
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:35UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 27, up 10
    Close callPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:12BYU 4th & 4 at UCF 14, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−5.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:00UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:42BYU 4th & 8 at BYU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:56BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:45UCF 4th & 1 at BYU 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−2.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−8.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:09UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:32BYU 4th & 18 at BYU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−4.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:16BYU 4th & 8 at BYU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−4.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:11UCF 4th & 5 at BYU 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−17.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:14BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−3.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:25BYU 4th & 8 at UCF 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.1 ptsPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−5.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:54UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:56BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:30BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:05BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:37UCF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:17UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:4157% → 60%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
56.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 8 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-2
56.8%
William Stanback run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
56.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Justin Tukes for 5 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
56.9%
William Stanback run for 9 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+1
57.1%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
57.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 19 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
57.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 11 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
57.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 14 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
57.7%
William Stanback run for 8 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
57.7%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the BYU 5Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
57.8%
William Stanback run for no gain to the BYU 5Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
59.5%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3441% → 40%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
59.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
59.3%
Christian Stewart run for no gain to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
59.7%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+32
60.1%
Scott Arellano punt for 40 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 32 yds to the BYU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0561% → 62%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
60.6%
Stanback, William rush for loss of 1 yard to the BYU45, PENALTY UCF holding (Dickey, Chavis) 10 yards to the UCF46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+6
60.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 6 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+15
60.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 15 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
61.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Kevin Miller for 6 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+1
61.6%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+1
61.6%
Justin Holman run for 1 yd to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
62.0%
Shawn Moffitt 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5039% → 37%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
61.1%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
61.3%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-2
61.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Adam Hine for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 19 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Edward Fusi) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
63.0%
Scott Arellano punt for 44 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0463% → 63%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
62.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
62.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
63.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 5 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
63.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 6 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
63.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
63.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Juergens at the BYU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0537% → 35%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
63.3%
Paul Lasike run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 10Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+4
63.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 4 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
64.3%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+7
64.7%
Scott Arellano punt for 58 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 7 yds to the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1164% → 64%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
64.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 5 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
64.8%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
64.4%
William Stanback run for no gain to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 13:49
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
63.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0735% → 34%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
64.8%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
64.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Algernon Brown for 5 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+7
65.1%
Algernon Brown run for 7 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
64.7%
Adam Hine run for 1 yd to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
64.9%
Christian Stewart run for 5 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
64.9%
Christian Stewart run for no gain to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
65.9%
Scott Arellano punt for 59 yds, downed at the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5266% → 64%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
65.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+7
65.7%
Justin Holman run for 7 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
65.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
64.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0435% → 37%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
64.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Paul Lasike for 19 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
63.5%
Christian Stewart pass intercepted, touchback. Jacoby Glenn return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0366% → 65%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
66.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 8 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-1
67.1%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
66.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+17
65.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 45 yds , Keanu Nelson returns for 17 yds to the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:0034% → 35%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
66.5%
Algernon Brown run for 9 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
65.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 3 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
66.2%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
66.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Colby Pearson for 9 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
65.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Algernon Brown for 1 yd to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+9
65.7%
Paul Lasike run for 9 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
65.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 9 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 11
-2
65.6%
Paul Lasike run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 13 Paul Lasike fumbled, recovered by BYU Paul LasikeSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-1
66.8%
Paul Lasike run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
65.3%
Trevor Samson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3868% → 66%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
67.9%
William Stanback run for no gain to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
67.7%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
66.9%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
66.0%
Caleb Houston punt for 45 yds , Devon Blackmon returns for no gain to the BYU 26 BYU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the BYU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0933% → 31%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
67.1%
Adam Hine run for 2 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
67.4%
Adam Hine run for no gain to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
68.6%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+2
69.2%
Scott Arellano punt for 43 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 2 yds to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:5870% → 71%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
69.6%
William Stanback run for 5 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
70.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Justin TukesSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+14
69.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for 14 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
70.9%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+16
71.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 16 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
71.3%
Justin Holman run for 3 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-8
70.9%
Justin Holman sacked by Sione Takitaki for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 28 Justin Holman fumbled, forced by Sione Takitaki, recovered by BYU Sione Takitaki , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:2733% → 32%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
67.0%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 6 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
65.7%
Algernon Brown run for 5 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
66.0%
Stewart, Christian pass complete to Mathews, Mitch for 8 yards to the BYU47, PENALTY BYU holding (Mulitalo, Manu) 10 yards to the BYU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+9
67.7%
Algernon Brown run for 9 yds to the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 2:4332% → 49%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
67.7%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 8 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+10
66.3%
Algernon Brown run for 10 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
66.0%
Christian Stewart run for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+11
65.5%
Christian Stewart run for 11 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
64.7%
Paul Lasike run for 13 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
64.2%
Paul Lasike run for 1 yd to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+10
64.4%
Paul Lasike run for 10 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
64.4%
Adam Hine run for 4 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
64.6%
Adam Hine run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
50.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Colby Pearson for 4 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3258% → 56%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
57.5%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
57.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Kevin MillerSimilar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
56.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4848% → 45%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
52.2%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
51.9%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Keanu Nelson for 3 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
51.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Keanu NelsonSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
54.7%
Scott Arellano punt for 27 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the UCF 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BYU Algernon BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:1551% → 66%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
49.2%
Paul Lasike run for 10 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
34.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 15 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
39.5%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Skye PoVey return for 15 yds to the UCF 39 UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Campbell) to the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22TD
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
20.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 14 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:0327% → 44%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
27.2%
William Stanback run for 7 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+10
26.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jackie Williams for 10 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
26.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
26.5%
Justin Holman run for 4 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
25.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 5 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
25.1%
Justin Holman run for 1 yd to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
25.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to Justin Tukes for 8 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.2%
William Stanback run for 2 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24FUMBLE
16 plays · 67 yds · 5:1265% → 74%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
34.8%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
34.5%
Christian Stewart run for 15 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
32.0%
Christian Stewart sacked by Thomas Niles for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 18
OWN 29
0
33.6%
Christian Stewart run for no gain to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+20
34.3%
Christian Stewart run for 20 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
29.6%
Paul Lasike run for 3 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+8
29.1%
Algernon Brown run for 8 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
29.0%
BYU Penalty, False Start (De'Ondre Wesley) to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+5
29.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 5 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
28.5%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Colby Pearson for 9 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+4
28.4%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
27.5%
BYU Penalty, False Start (De'Ondre Wesley) to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+13
27.6%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 13 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+4
26.1%
Paul Lasike run for 4 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
26.0%
Algernon Brown run for 2 yds to the UCF 13 Algernon Brown fumbled, forced by Terrance Plummer, recovered by UCF Terrance PlummerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:0932% → 28%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
31.7%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+14
30.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 14 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
31.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+17
30.9%
Justin Holman run for 17 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
33.8%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
31.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
30.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+5
28.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds , Keanu Nelson returns for 5 yds to the BYU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2873% → 72%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
26.7%
Mitchell Juergens run for 2 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-5
26.7%
Christian Stewart sacked by Terrance Plummer for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 13Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 13
OWN 13
-7
27.9%
Stewart, Christian rush for no gain to the BYU13, PENALTY BYU illegal block (Lasike, Paul) 7 yards to the BYU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 20
OWN 6
+2
27.6%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 18
OWN 8
+29
28.5%
Scott Arellano punt for 58 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 29 yds to the BYU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:1333% → 63%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
32.9%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
62.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 37 yds for a TD BYU Penalty, Offside Defense (AJ Moore) declined, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2047% → 43%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
53.0%
Algernon Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 12Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+9
53.5%
Algernon Brown run for 9 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
54.2%
Christian Stewart run for no gain to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 3
OWN 21
-5
56.1%
BYU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 8
OWN 16
+7
56.8%
Scott Arellano punt for 37 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 7 yds to the BYU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29MISSED FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3563% → 59%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
63.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 12 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
64.4%
Holman, Justin pass incomplete to Perriman, Breshad, PENALTY BYU offside defense (Tuiloma, Travis) 5 yards to the BYU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 5
OPP 29
-2
64.5%
William Stanback run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
64.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Justin Tukes for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
62.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
59.0%
Shawn Moffitt 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5450% → 45%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
50.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Colby PearsonSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
50.8%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
52.5%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Colby PearsonSimilar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
54.6%
Scott Arellano punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 31INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:3860% → 65%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
59.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 20 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
63.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
63.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 12 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
64.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 4 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
64.8%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Kai Nacua return for 15 yds to the BYU 11 UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Tukes) to the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 32PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 1:4553% → 55%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
47.4%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
47.7%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Algernon BrownSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+12
50.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
50
+8
44.1%
Algernon Brown run for 8 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
41.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
41.4%
Paul Lasike run for 3 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
40.1%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
40.2%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
40.7%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
45.1%
Scott Arellano punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 33MISSED FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 1:1355% → 58%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
55.4%
Justin Holman sacked by Sione Takitaki for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+10
54.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 10 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
52.0%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Torrian Wilson) to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+20
52.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 20 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
56.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 16 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
62.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+23
61.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 8 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Harvey Langi) to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
65.4%
William Stanback run for no gain to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-7
66.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 17
OPP 33
+50
57.5%
Shawn Moffitt 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Mitch MathewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 34END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
47.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 35TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
64.7%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the BYU 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+15
64.7%
Justin Holman run for 6 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Kai Nacua) to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
64.7%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
64.7%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the BYU 4Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for 4 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 36Uncategorized
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0020% → 11%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
80.4%
Christian Stewart run for 7 yds to the UCF 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+5
79.3%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 5 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
80.4%
Christian Stewart pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 5 yds to the UCF 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
79.3%
Christian Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+2
86.0%
Christian Stewart run for 2 yds to the UCF 6Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 6
0
88.9%
Christian Stewart pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:17
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 37 yds for a TD BYU Penalty, Offside Defense (AJ Moore) declined, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)
+29.8
TD · Q3 9:05
Christian Stewart pass complete to Devin Mahina for 14 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
-19.3
TD · Q3 5:37
William Stanback run for 2 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)
+18.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com