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TLSA

Tulsa 17 at Colorado State 42

CSU
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:20 · Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds , Dee Hart returns for 11 yds to the Tulsa 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense+25.5Score differential+9.4Garbage-time factor+6.8Blowout margin+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:11: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 31 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:54: Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 73 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:20: Dane Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +3.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:19: Dee Hart run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK) — CSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:50: Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 62 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +2.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 12:36TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:29TLSA 4th & 4 at CSU 5, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:50TLSA 4th & 19 at CSU 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:46CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:51TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:19TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:18CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 28, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:21TLSA 4th & 3 at CSU 8, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 36, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:45CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 41, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:20TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 18, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:20TLSA 4th & 20 at TLSA 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:56TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:08CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 23, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:36CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:59CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:11CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:54CSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:20TLSA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:19CSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:50TLSA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:02CSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2485% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
84.8%
Garrett Grayson run for 7 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+53
84.8%
Dee Hart run for 53 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
84.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Mason Myers) to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+2
84.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Dee Hart for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+14
84.7%
Dee Hart run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK), (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.5%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
84.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Preston HodgesSimilar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
84.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to James Flanders, broken up by Bryan Ohene-GyeniSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
84.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 62 yds , Dee Hart returns for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
84.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 6 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+3
84.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+2
84.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
84.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Steven Walker for 4 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
84.5%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-9
84.4%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Chris Hummingbird for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 12Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 15
OWN 12
0
84.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
50
+3
83.8%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
83.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 7
OPP 0
0
83.9%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to ATKINSON, J., PENALTY TLS IB off-setting, PENALTY CS pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+12
83.9%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Preston Hodges return for 12 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:3485% → 86%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
84.5%
Dee Hart run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
86.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 28 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 38 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
85.7%
Dane Evans run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+2
85.7%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+9
85.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 9 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
85.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
85.6%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
85.6%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
85.6%
Dane Evans run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+12
85.6%
Dane Evans run for 12 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-3
85.5%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-3
85.7%
Dane Evans sacked by Joe Kawulok for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 16
OWN 48
+3
85.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 41 yds , Dee Hart returns for 3 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:4987% → 92%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+63
86.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 63 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
86.8%
GRAYSON, Garrett pass complete to HIGGINS, Rashard for 26 yards to the TLS4, out-of-bounds (WILLIAMS, D.), PENALTY CS IB off-setting, PENALTY TLS face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
87.4%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+15
87.4%
Garrett Grayson run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-15
87.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 9 COLORADO ST Penalty, IB (Sam Carlson) to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+31
92.0%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 31 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8INT
12 plays · 70 yds · 0:429% → 8%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
91.9%
Dane Evans run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
91.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+18
91.7%
Zack Langer run for 18 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
91.6%
Zack Langer run for 9 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+16
91.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 6 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Joe Hansley) to the ColSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
91.2%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
91.2%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
91.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Aaron DavisSimilar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 4
OPP 5
0
91.6%
Dane Evans pass intercepted, touchback. Trent Matthews return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
94.0%
Dee Hart run for 14 yds to the ColSt 40 Dee Hart fumbled, forced by Zik Asiegbu, recovered by Tulsa Demarco NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.5%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
92.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Mandel DixonSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+15
92.8%
EVANS, D. sacked for loss of 11 yards to the TLS49 (JAMES, Cory), PENALTY CS personal foul (JAMES, Cory) 15 yards to the CS25, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
92.2%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-4
92.3%
Dane Evans sacked by Joe Kawulok and Terry Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 14
OPP 29
-5
93.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Chris Wallace) to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 19
OPP 34
0
93.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 19
OPP 34
0
93.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:0895% → 98%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
94.7%
TULSA Penalty, IM (5 Yards) to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.7%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
94.7%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 8
OWN 0
0
94.5%
GRAYSON, Garrett pass complete to HIGGINS, Rashard for 3 yards to the CS30 (THOMAS, K.), PENALTY CS holding off-setting, PENALTY TLS personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+73
97.9%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 73 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:342% → 6%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+65
98.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Derek Patterson for 65 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
98.0%
Zack Langer run for 8 yds to the ColSt 2Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.5%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.7%
Dane Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:2696% → 96%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
95.5%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 13
OWN 28
-8
95.4%
Garrett Grayson sacked by Derrick Alexander for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 18 Garrett Grayson fumbled, recovered by ColSt Sam Carlson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 23
OWN 18
+7
95.3%
Dee Hart run for 7 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 63 yds, downed at the Tulsa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:425% → 5%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
94.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Tavarreon Dickerson for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+7
94.8%
Dane Evans run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+3
94.9%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+11
94.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 43 yds , Dee Hart returns for 11 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:4097% → 97%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.7%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Charles Lovett, broken up by Trent MartinSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
96.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Xavier Williams for 9 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+6
96.7%
Dee Hart run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Xavier Williams) to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
96.8%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Joe Hansley for 8 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
96.8%
Garrett Grayson pass incomplete to Joe HansleySimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+13
96.7%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 13 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+33
96.9%
Jared Roberts 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.9%
Dane Evans run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
94.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
94.7%
Dane Evans sacked by Joe Kawulok for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
95.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 24 yds, downed at the Tulsa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
96.4%
Dee Hart run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
96.4%
Garrett Grayson run for no gain to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+39
96.2%
Garrett Grayson pass intercepted Kerwin Thomas return for 39 yds to the ColSt 25 Kerwin Thomas fumbled, forced by Fred Zerblis, recovered by ColSt Dee HartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:5697% → 100%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
96.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+62
96.4%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Charles Lovett for 62 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.5%
Dee Hart run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.3%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
99.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 11 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by DeAndre ElliottSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Trent MatthewsSimilar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.6%
Dee Hart run for 4 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Nolan Peralta for 5 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-2
99.5%
Dee Hart run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+2
99.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 48 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 2 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:020% → 1%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
99.6%
Bishop Louie run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.6%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
99.5%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
99.5%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 9 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+4
99.5%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
99.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Derek Patterson for 22 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.5%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
99.4%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the ColSt 11Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+3
99.5%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
98.9%
Carl Salazar 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:1699% → 99%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
99.3%
GRAYSON, Garrett pass incomplete to HANSLEY, Joe, PENALTY TLS pass interference (McDANIEL, A.) 10 yards to the CS34, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.3%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 0
0
99.4%
GRAYSON, Garrett sacked for loss of 6 yards to the CS30 (MUDOH, M.;MARTIN, T.), fumble by GRAYSON, Garrett recovered by CS TEAM at CS30, PENALTY CS holding off-setting, PENALTY TLS holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Nolan PeraltaSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+9
99.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 50 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 9 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:231% → 4%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.1%
Dane Evans run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
99.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 8 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.0%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
99.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 1 yd to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+62
96.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 62 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
97.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
97.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Xavier Williams, broken up by Michael MudohSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+8
97.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Charles Lovett for 8 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+7
97.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 57 yds , Bishop Louie returns for 7 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
97.1%
Dane Evans run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 10
-2
97.0%
Dane Evans sacked by Joe Kawulok for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+10
97.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+2
97.0%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for no gain to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
97.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-10
97.1%
Dane Evans sacked by Kevin Davis for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+11
97.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds , Dee Hart returns for 11 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:4198% → 100%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
98.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-5
98.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+9
97.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nolan Peralta for 9 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+4
97.9%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard HigginsSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
98.0%
Eric Williams run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+36
99.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 36 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+20
99.7%
Joseph Calcagni pass complete to Bishop Louie for 20 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.7%
Joseph Calcagni run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Joseph Calcagni pass incomplete to D UmblanceSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-2
99.7%
Joseph Calcagni sacked by SteveO Michel for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
99.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
99.8%
Deron Thompson run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 14
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Deron Thompson run for no gain to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+9
99.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Eric Williams for 9 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+19
99.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 43 yds , Bishop Louie returns for 19 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.8%
Joseph Calcagni run for 5 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Joseph Calcagni pass incomplete to D UmblanceSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+21
99.8%
Joseph Calcagni pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for 21 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.7%
Joseph Calcagni pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
99.7%
Joseph Calcagni pass incomplete to Bishop Louie, broken up by Kevin Pierre-LouisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:11
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 31 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 3:20
Dane Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)
-3.8
TD · Q2 4:54
Garrett Grayson pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 73 yds for a TD, (Jared Roberts KICK)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com