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SMU

SMU 24 at East Carolina 45

ECU
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:21 · Cody Rademacher 40 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+20.8Home team on offense+12.4Score differential+5.4Garbage-time factor+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:24: Prescott Line run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK) — SMU win probability +2.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:01: Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 30 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:45: Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 7 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK) — SMU win probability +2.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:20: Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 9 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK) — SMU win probability +4.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 12:00: Warren Harvey 24 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +2.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 12:15ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:28SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:41SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:59SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:04SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:39SMU 4th & 4 at ECU 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:20SMU 4th & 1 at ECU 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:32SMU 4th & 1 at ECU 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04SMU 4th & 9 at ECU 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:03ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 10, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:57ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.3%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:07SMU 4th & 5 at ECU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:21SMU 4th & 7 at ECU 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:00ECU 4th & 5 at SMU 7, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:14SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 30, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:31SMU 4th & 9 at ECU 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:14SMU 4th & 10 at ECU 10, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:00ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:45ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:28ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:24SMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:01ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:45SMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:31ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:20SMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:49ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2899% → 98%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
98.5%
Breon Allen run for 3 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+7
98.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Quay Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
98.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 5 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
98.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for no gain to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+2
98.4%
Breon Allen run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+10
98.3%
Worth Gregory punt for 51 yds , Daijuan Stewart returns for 10 yds to the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:322% → 2%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
98.3%
Kevin Pope run for 1 yd to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
98.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 8 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
98.1%
Kevin Pope run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
98.1%
Jackson Koonce punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:2298% → 98%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
98.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.0%
Chris Hairston run for no gain to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
98.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+13
97.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 13 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
97.9%
Breon Allen run for 2 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+13
97.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 13 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
97.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 11 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.8%
Shane Carden run for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
97.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 9 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+2
97.7%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
97.6%
Chris Hairston run for 7 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+11
97.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 11 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:062% → 2%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.7%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
97.7%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 11 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
97.6%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 6 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-5
97.5%
Garrett Krstich sacked by Brandon Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
97.5%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
97.6%
Jackson Koonce punt for 43 yds , Justin Hardy returns for no gain to the ECaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:4298% → 98%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
97.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 15 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.5%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
97.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Davon Grayson for 5 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
97.4%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Hardy, Justin, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Sanders, Stephon) off-setting, PENALTY EASTCRLINA Personal Foul (Levingston, Dontae) off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+21
97.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 21 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
97.4%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+25
97.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Steve Baggett for 25 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
97.4%
Chris Hairston run for 3 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
97.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 9 yds for a TD SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside declined, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:332% → 3%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.6%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
97.5%
K.C. Nlemchi run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
97.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+20
97.5%
Jackson Koonce punt for 54 yds , Justin Hardy returns for 20 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:1998% → 99%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
97.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 4 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+13
97.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 13 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
97.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 6 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
97.7%
Quay Johnson run for 5 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+38
97.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 38 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 2 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
21 plays · 79 yds · 7:422% → 4%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.5%
Kevin Pope run for no gain to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+16
98.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 16 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
98.4%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 6 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
98.4%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 3 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-10
98.4%
Krstich, Garrett pass complete to Nelson, Stephen for 5 yards to the EASTCRLINA49, PENALTY SMU holding (Weeks, Kris) 10 yards to the SMU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+9
98.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 9 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+7
98.4%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 7 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
98.3%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 6 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
98.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Stephen NelsonSimilar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+9
98.3%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 9 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.2%
K.C. Nlemchi run for no gain to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
98.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 5 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+4
98.0%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 4 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+11
98.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 11 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.0%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
98.0%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+11
98.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Shelby Walker for 11 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.7%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:1096% → 99%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
96.4%
Quay Johnson run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
50
0
96.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Brandon BishopSimilar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 10
50
+12
96.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 12 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
96.6%
Breon Allen run for 8 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+30
98.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 30 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 32 yds · 1:352% → 2%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
98.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 6 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
98.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 10 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
98.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 3 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
98.1%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+6
98.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 6 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+6
98.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 6 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
97.9%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 1 yd to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
97.9%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
98.0%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+44
98.1%
Cody Rademacher 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by K'Hadree HookerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
98.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:092% → 5%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Stephen NelsonSimilar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+34
98.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 19 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Lamar Ivey) to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
98.3%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 2 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+9
98.3%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 9 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
98.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 11 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
98.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Shelby Walker for 12 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
95.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 7 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:5297% → 99%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
96.5%
Breon Allen run for 5 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-10
96.5%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (McKinney, Quincy) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+17
96.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 17 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
96.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 30 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
96.7%
Breon Allen run for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+18
96.6%
Shane Carden run for 18 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
96.7%
Chris Hairston run for 6 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+4
96.7%
Shane Carden run for 4 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:251% → 1%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
98.6%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 30 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
98.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Jeremiah Gaines for 6 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
98.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 7 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
98.4%
Krstich, Garrett pass complete to Gaines, Jeremiah for 19 yards to the EASTCRLINA13, PENALTY SMU ineligible downfield on pass (Brown, Evan) 5 yards to the EASTCRLINA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
98.6%
Garrett Krstich pass intercepted Travon Simmons return for no gain to the ECaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4899% → 99%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
98.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+5
98.7%
Chris Hairston run for 5 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
98.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+11
98.7%
Worth Gregory punt for 46 yds , Daijuan Stewart returns for 11 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:131% → 6%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
98.6%
Der'rikk Thompson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
98.5%
Garrett Krstich run for no gain to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
98.6%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 5 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.4%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Stephen NelsonSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-7
98.6%
Garrett Krstich sacked by Brandon Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+21
98.8%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 21 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
98.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Deion Sanders Jr. for 11 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.6%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Deion Sanders Jr.Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 9 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1396% → 97%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
96.3%
Hairston, Chris rush for 9 yards to the EASTCRLINA35, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (McKinney, Quincy) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+8
96.8%
Chris Hairston run for 8 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+11
96.5%
Shane Carden run for 11 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
96.5%
Shane Carden run for no gain to the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:326% → 8%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
93.6%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
93.5%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+6
93.9%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to K.C. Nlemchi for 6 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
93.4%
Krstich, Garrett pass incomplete to Joseph, Darius, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Ivey, Lamar) 9 yards to the EASTCRLINA15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
93.5%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
93.4%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 5 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
94.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Stephen NelsonSimilar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
92.1%
Cody Rademacher 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19MISSED FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3410% → 8%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
90.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 3 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
90.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
91.4%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Jordan MillerSimilar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
92.2%
Cody Rademacher 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:1294% → 97%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+28
93.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 28 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
94.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 11 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
94.5%
Anthony Scott run for 12 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
94.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
94.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 9 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+5
94.1%
Breon Allen run for 5 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
94.3%
Shane Carden run for 5 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
94.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
94.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Chris HairstonSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
96.9%
Warren Harvey 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:345% → 5%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.3%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
94.8%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Stephen NelsonSimilar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.3%
Jackson Koonce punt for 38 yds, downed at the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:1797% → 100%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
97.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Chris Hairston for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+30
96.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 30 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
97.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 13 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
97.5%
Chris Hairston run for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+9
97.5%
Shane Carden run for 9 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
97.4%
Chris Hairston run for 4 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
99.6%
Chris Hairston run for 8 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23DOWNS
18 plays · 74 yds · 4:081% → 1%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.3%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+9
99.3%
Garrett Krstich run for 9 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.3%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Cedric Lancaster for 1 yd to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+17
99.4%
Garrett Krstich run for 17 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
99.4%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 22 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
99.3%
K.C. Nlemchi run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 13
OPP 34
0
99.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Cedric LancasterSimilar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+4
99.4%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Nate Halverson for 4 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+10
99.4%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Nate Halverson for 10 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.3%
K.C. Nlemchi run for no gain to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
99.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Nate HalversonSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+10
99.4%
Krstich, Garrett pass incomplete to Gaines, Jeremiah, PENALTY EASTCRLINA roughing passer (Pratt, Dayon) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Nate HalversonSimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Nate HalversonSimilar
Q4 3:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.4%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Jeremiah GainesSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.4%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Cedric LancasterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 17 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
99.8%
Chris Hairston run for 1 yd to the ECaro 11Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+8
99.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Quay Johnson for 8 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
99.8%
Chris Hairston run for 3 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.8%
Chris Hairston run for 3 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:20
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 9 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)
-4.1
FG · Q4 12:00
Warren Harvey 24 yd FG GOOD
+2.9
TD · Q3 12:45
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Darius Joseph for 7 yds for a TD, (Cody Rademacher KICK)
-2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com