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MEM

Memphis 41 at Cincinnati 14

CIN
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Paul Brown Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:14 · Sam Geraci punt for 55 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense−28.0Score differential−13.5Pregame prior+4.8Garbage-time factor−5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:06: Paxton Lynch run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +8.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:19: Jake Elliott 20 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +11.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:49: Rod Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +8.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:20: Sam Craft run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +17.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:00: Paxton Lynch run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +5.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 10:38CIN 4th & 2 at MEM 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10MEM 4th & 2 at CIN 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:03CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 18, down 10
    Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00MEM 4th & 2 at CIN 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CIN 4th & 6 at MEM 42, down 17
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:19MEM 4th & 3 at CIN 3, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−11.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:19CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 36, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:46MEM 4th & 7 at CIN 25, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−5.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:10CIN 4th & 20 at MEM 21, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:49MEM 4th & 6 at CIN 44, up 20
    Close callPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:31CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 20, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:55MEM 4th & 24 at MEM 8, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−3.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:14CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:00CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 39, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 33, up 27
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:35CIN 4th & 10 at MEM 40, down 27
    Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:55MEM 4th & 7 at CIN 33, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:43CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:44MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 10:38MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:06MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:49CIN Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:20MEM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:00MEM Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
63.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 80 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:4837% → 37%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
63.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 5 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
63.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
63.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 4 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+11
63.2%
Sam Craft run for 11 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
63.2%
Sam Craft run for 9 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 1
OPP 6
-3
63.2%
Mose Frazier run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
62.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 9 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
63.1%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+12
63.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 12 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
63.1%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Bakari Hollier return for no gain to the Cincy 36 CINCINNATI Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Chris Moore) to the Cincy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:5638% → 39%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
62.5%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
62.5%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+29
60.9%
Adrian Henderson 29 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick), (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
61.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 13 yds Max Morrison fumbled, forced by Wynton McManis, recovered by Cincy Max Morrison for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
61.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Hosey Williams for 18 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
61.8%
Gunner Kiel run for 7 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
61.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+1
61.8%
Gunner Kiel run for 1 yd to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
61.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max Morrison, broken up by Wynton McManisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FG
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:3040% → 42%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
59.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 20 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+33
59.6%
Mose Frazier run for 33 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
59.6%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
59.6%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+1
59.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Cincy 3 Paxton Lynch fumbled, forced by Zach Edwards, recovered by Memph Paxton LynchSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
58.5%
Jake Elliott 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
58.8%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+5
58.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 5 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
58.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Ricky HunterSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
58.4%
Sam Geraci punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
57.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 9 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
57.3%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
57.6%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
50
0
57.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
50
+8
57.4%
Sam Craft run for 8 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
57.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Adrian HendersonSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
57.9%
Nick Jacobs punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
56.4%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-5
56.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Mekale McKay) to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+12
56.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 12 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
56.6%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Tank Jakes for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 15
OWN 25
-7
56.3%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Tank Jakes for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 11 Gunner Kiel fumbled, recovered by Memph Cortez Crosby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:3745% → 54%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
54.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Cincy 10Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
54.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
46.2%
Paxton Lynch run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:5848% → 48%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
48.0%
Gunner Kiel run for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
48.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
48.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 5 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
48.5%
Rod Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+20
46.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 20 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
48.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
48.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 4 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
48.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKay, broken up by Fritz EtienneSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
47.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 32 yds, downed at the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12FG
12 plays · 87 yds · 5:3257% → 69%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+43
43.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 43 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
42.4%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
42.4%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+17
42.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 17 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
42.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 12 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
42.3%
Sam Craft run for 4 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
42.3%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+4
42.6%
Sam Craft run for 4 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
42.1%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
42.6%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 3Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
31.0%
Jake Elliott 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
35.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
35.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
35.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
35.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
35.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:5969% → 71%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
31.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 26 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
30.3%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+14
30.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 14 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
29.8%
Sam Craft run for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-1
29.8%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
30.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Keiwone MaloneSimilar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
29.2%
Jake Elliott 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 2:3633% → 30%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.7%
Rod Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
32.8%
Gunner Kiel run for 11 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
34.0%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
34.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+36
33.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 36 yds to the CINCINNATI 22 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
35.4%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to GLADNEY, Casey (HARRIS, Charles), PENALTY MEM roughing passer (REDDEN, Terry) 11 yards to the MEM11, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
35.4%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Memph 6Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-15
33.9%
KIEL, Gunner pass complete to WASHINGTON, S. for 6 yards to the MEM0, clock 03:25, PENALTY CIN pass interference (MCKAY, Mekale) 15 yards to the MEM21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 20
OPP 21
0
31.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny Holton, broken up by Dion WittySimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 20
OPP 21
0
30.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Rod MooreSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 20
OPP 21
+38
30.0%
Andrew Gantz 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:2175% → 80%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
25.1%
Sam Craft run for 6 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+16
25.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 16 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
24.4%
Sam Craft run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 2
50
+2
23.7%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
24.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
24.1%
Sam Craft run for 6 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-2
24.7%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
20.1%
Nick Jacobs punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1225% → 27%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
25.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Eric Lefeld) to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
24.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+3
24.5%
Rod Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+6
24.3%
Rod Moore run for 6 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
26.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 24 yds, downed at the Cincy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:1476% → 83%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
23.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Tyler Uselton) to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+12
24.2%
Sam Craft run for 12 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+55
16.9%
Jake Elliott 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0728% → 28%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
28.2%
Rod Moore run for 14 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
28.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · -14 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
22.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Alan Cross) to the Memph 17Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+4
23.0%
Sam Craft run for 4 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-10
23.0%
LYNCH, Paxton pass incomplete to HENDERSON, A., PENALTY MEM pass interference (HENDERSON, A.) 10 yards to the MEM11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 21
OWN 11
+3
23.1%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 18
OWN 14
0
24.0%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 18
OWN 14
-6
24.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, personal foul (Taylor Fallin) to the Memph 8Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 24
OWN 8
0
24.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 35 yds , Shaq Washington returns for no gain to the Memph 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:4129% → 38%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
28.6%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Shaq Washington for 4 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
28.9%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Mekale McKay for 9 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
29.1%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+5
29.3%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
29.3%
Munchie Legaux run for 6 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+9
29.3%
Rod Moore run for 9 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
37.6%
Rod Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2972% → 90%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.5%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
29.8%
Sam Craft run for 9 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
27.0%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+11
27.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
50
+23
26.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 23 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
25.9%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
26.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Sam Craft, broken up by Brad HarrahSimilar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+16
27.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 16 yds to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
9.9%
Sam Craft run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
15.2%
Munchie Legaux run for 9 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+9
15.8%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Alex Chisum for 9 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
16.4%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
16.3%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Rod MooreSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
15.7%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
15.4%
Sam Geraci punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:0190% → 97%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
10.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 25 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
9.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Keiwone MaloneSimilar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
9.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 19 yds to the CINCINNATI 36 MEMPHIS Penalty, illegal block (Keiwone Malone) to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-10
8.6%
CRAFT, Sam rush for 2 yards to the CIN44 (LUC, Jeff;TEMPLE, Nick), PENALTY MEM holding (STANNARD, M.) 10 yards to the MEM44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+7
9.1%
Sam Craft run for 7 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+13
8.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 13 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
8.8%
Sam Craft run for 14 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
8.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 6 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+6
8.5%
Jarvis Cooper run for 6 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
2.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.6%
Munchie Legaux run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
4.4%
Rod Moore run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
4.4%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Shaq Washington for 7 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.8%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Chris Moore, broken up by Bobby McCainSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
4.5%
Rod Moore run for 6 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
4.5%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Johnny Holton, broken up by Charles HarrisSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
-5
4.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
4.4%
Sam Geraci punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3597% → 98%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.9%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
2.6%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
2.7%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
2.5%
Spencer Smith punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
3.4%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Casey Gladney for 10 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.1%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Mekale McKay, broken up by Dontrell NelsonSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
3.9%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Casey Gladney, broken up by Tank JakesSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
3.8%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Rod MooreSimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
3.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28END OF GAME
20 plays · 76 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
0.9%
Sam Craft run for 4 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+2
0.9%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+6
0.9%
Sam Craft run for 6 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
0.9%
Mose Frazier run for 3 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
0.9%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+4
0.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
0.8%
Sam Craft run for 5 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+9
0.8%
Sam Craft run for 9 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
0.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 6 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+6
0.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 6 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
0.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 1 yd to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+2
0.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
0.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for no gain to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+14
1.2%
Jason Stewart run for 14 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
0.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
0.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 5 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
0.7%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
0.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
0.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 8Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
0.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:20
Sam Craft run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-17.4
FG · Q2 8:19
Jake Elliott 20 yd FG GOOD
-11.6
TD · Q1 1:06
Paxton Lynch run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com