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UCF

UCF 17 at Houston 12

HOU
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 2, 2014 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:04 · Caleb Houston punt for 42 yds , Greg Ward Jr. returns for 10 yds to the Houst 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−18.6Pregame prior+2.9Garbage-time factor−6.2Score differential−8.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:27: Justin Holman pass complete to Jackie Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +5.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:27: Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 52 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +17.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:25: Shawn Moffitt 42 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +2.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:46: Kyle Bullard 49 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +10.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 19 — UCF win probability +14.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:35HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35HOU 4th & 1 at UCF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:50HOU 4th & 10 at UCF 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:45UCF 4th & 6 at HOU 35, down 3
    Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:10HOU 4th & 1 at UCF 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:09UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:42HOU 4th & 17 at UCF 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:07UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 29, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:24HOU 4th & 24 at HOU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:52UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:58HOU 4th & 3 at UCF 25, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.5%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−5.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:03UCF 4th & 7 at HOU 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:36HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 19, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:25UCF 4th & 2 at HOU 25, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%−1.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−8.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:04UCF 4th & 7 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:06HOU 4th & 16 at UCF 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:02UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 36, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−3.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:46HOU 4th & 26 at UCF 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−4.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−4.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:47UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:27UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:27UCF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1561% → 60%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
60.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-4
60.5%
John O'Korn run for 10 yds to the Houst 29 HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (John O'Korn) to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
60.5%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
60.4%
Logan Piper punt for 47 yds , J.J. Worton returns for no gain to the UCF 38 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:1040% → 40%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
60.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+7
60.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 7 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
60.4%
Jackie Williams run for 8 yds to the UCF 49 Jackie Williams fumbled, recovered by Houst Efrem OliphantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:1561% → 61%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
60.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
60.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 8 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
61.0%
John O'Korn run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+18
60.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 18 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
61.1%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
61.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 4 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 6
OPP 18
-4
61.0%
John O'Korn sacked by Jaryl Mamea for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
61.1%
Kyle Bullard 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:2039% → 39%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
61.3%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
61.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+17
61.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 17 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
60.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 14 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
60.7%
Josh Reese run for no gain to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
60.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
60.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
61.5%
Caleb Houston punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:2462% → 63%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
61.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 22 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
62.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 5 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+1
62.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
62.4%
John O'Korn run for 5 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+36
62.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 36 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
63.3%
John O'Korn run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 14Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
63.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Clayton GeathersSimilar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+12
62.8%
O'Korn, John pass incomplete to Spencer, Daniel, PENALTY UCF pass interference (Griffin, Shaquill) 12 yards to the UCF2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTONSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Kenneth FarrowSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.5%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3638% → 36%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
62.5%
Justin Holman run for 1 yd to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
62.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 5
-2
63.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Tarik Cook) to the UCF 3Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
63.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
63.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 37 yds, downed at the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1864% → 62%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
63.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-10
64.1%
Spencer, Daniel rush for 4 yards to the UCF30, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Greenberry, Deontay) 10 yards to the UCF44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 14
OPP 44
-3
62.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 17
OPP 47
0
62.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Shane RosSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
61.6%
Logan Piper punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1938% → 37%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
62.4%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+10
62.7%
Justin Holman run for 10 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
62.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
63.3%
Caleb Houston punt for 53 yds, downed at the Houst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
62.4%
John O'Korn pass intercepted Clayton Geathers return for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:2640% → 46%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
60.0%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+12
60.0%
William Stanback run for 12 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
60.0%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the Houst 5Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
59.9%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 6Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
54.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jackie Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:4658% → 54%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
58.2%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-11
57.3%
John O'Korn sacked by Jaryl Mamea for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 21
OWN 32
-3
54.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Ryan Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 24
OWN 29
+1
53.6%
Logan Piper punt for 37 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 1 yd to the UCF 35 UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (Cedric Thompson) to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2446% → 44%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
54.4%
William Stanback run for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
53.4%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
53.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad Perriman, broken up by William JacksonSimilar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-5
54.0%
UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (Justin Holman) to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
55.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jackie WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
55.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 49 yds , Greg Ward Jr. returns for no gain to the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 3:4355% → 59%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
54.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Javin Webb for 4 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
54.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+6
53.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 6 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
54.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 13 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Markeith AmblesSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+13
55.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 13 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
57.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 6 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+7
57.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 7 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
59.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
59.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+5
57.3%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Thomas Niles) to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
57.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
59.2%
Kyle Bullard 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:2245% → 46%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.5%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
54.9%
William Stanback run for 5 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
54.6%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
54.4%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15FUMBLE
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4248% → 46%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
52.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 6 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
51.3%
Rannell Hall run for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
51.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
51.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
51.3%
Rannell Hall run for 3 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
51.1%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
53.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 38 yds , Greg Ward Jr. returns for no gain to the Houst 11 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by Houst Greg Ward Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1955% → 53%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
55.0%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+3
54.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 19
0
53.5%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 2
OWN 19
+12
52.6%
Logan Piper punt for 45 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 12 yds to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
34.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 52 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0538% → 38%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
38.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
38.0%
John O'Korn pass intercepted Brandon Alexander return for no gain to the Houst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3266% → 69%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
33.8%
Justin Holman run for 3 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+6
32.8%
Justin Holman run for 6 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-1
33.2%
Cedric Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
30.7%
Shawn Moffitt 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:5331% → 30%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
31.3%
Kenneth Farrow run for 6 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
30.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
31.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 6 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Drico Johnson) to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
33.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
33.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Delay of Game (Greg Ward Jr.) to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 15
OPP 45
-12
31.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 42 HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Rowdy Harper) to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 27
OWN 43
+9
30.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 9 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+18
29.7%
Logan Piper punt for 33 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 15 HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Earl Foster) to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0072% → 74%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
28.2%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
27.2%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+11
26.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 11 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
24.7%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
24.7%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+3
24.8%
Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 7
50
+10
26.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 42 yds , Greg Ward Jr. returns for 10 yds to the Houst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 5:4925% → 23%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
25.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 14 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
25.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rowdy Harper) to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 20
OWN 22
0
24.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
23.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 20
OWN 22
+15
22.4%
Ward Jr., Greg rush for no gain to the HOUSTON22, PENALTY UCF face mask (Anderson, Demetris) 15 yards to the HOUSTON37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
24.3%
Ryan Jackson run for 12 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
25.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 9
50
+7
24.2%
Javin Webb run for 7 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+16
25.2%
Ryan Jackson run for 16 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
26.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Ben Dew) to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+5
23.6%
Ryan Jackson run for 5 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
24.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-9
22.7%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Thomas Niles for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 16
OPP 33
+51
22.5%
Kyle Bullard 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4880% → 83%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.5%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
19.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 9 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.9%
William Stanback run for no gain to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
18.0%
William Stanback run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
15.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+8
16.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 32 yds , Greg Ward Jr. returns for 8 yds to the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:0923% → 27%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
23.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 8 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
23.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
50
-5
21.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Rowdy Harper) to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+39
18.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 39 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
22.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+3
21.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 12
OPP 18
-14
21.0%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jaryl Mamea for a loss of 14 yards to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 26
OPP 32
0
16.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 26
OPP 32
+49
26.7%
Kyle Bullard 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2480% → 83%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.9%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
18.5%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
18.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Aaron Evans) to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
16.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
16.7%
Caleb Houston punt for 37 yds , Greg Ward Jr. returns for 2 yds to the Houst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26FUMBLE
14 plays · 61 yds · 2:1328% → 21%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
27.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
29.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+21
25.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 21 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
31.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Daniel Spencer, broken up by Brandon AlexanderSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
31.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 9 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
32.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
34.2%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+12
22.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 12 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+11
24.6%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to Ayers, Demarcus, PENALTY UCF pass interference (Ozerities, Jordan) 11 yards to the UCF10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON. Similar
Q4 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
29.2%
Ward Jr., Greg rush for 5 yards to the UCF5, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Cross, Travis) 10 yards to the UCF20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+19
20.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 19 yds Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
6.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:27
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 52 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)
-17.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 19
-14.4
FG · Q4 4:46
Kyle Bullard 49 yd FG GOOD
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com