Try the model
TXST

Texas State 37 at Tulsa 34

TLSA
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Chapman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT2OTOT3OTOT3TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:40 · Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for no gain to the TexSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingDefense timeouts
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT2OTOT3OTOT3Play 77Home team on offense−4.2Pregame prior+6.6Garbage-time factor−1.9Score differential−1.7Time remaining−0.3Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 0:10: Dane Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +39.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · OT 0:00: Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +36.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · OT2 0:00: Ben Ijah 35 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Will Johnson Kick) — TXST win probability +34.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · OT2 0:00: Zack Langer 4 Yd Run (Carl Salazar Kick) — TLSA win probability +36.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT3 0:00: Terrence Franks 2 Yd Run — TXST win probability +67.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 12TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:01TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:02TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:07TXST 4th & 8 at TLSA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:32TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 8:09TXST 4th & 14 at TLSA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  7. Q1 5:46TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 27 at TLSA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:29TLSA 4th & 14 at TXST 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:40TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:38TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:05TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:26TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−2.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:56TLSA 4th & 3 at TXST 3, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−8.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:58TXST 4th & 10 at TLSA 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at TXST 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−10.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:08TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:19TXST 4th & 7 at TLSA 39, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%−1.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:10TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.8%−3.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:10TLSA 4th & 5 at TXST 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−2.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−3.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:10TLSA 4th & 1 at TXST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−28.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−25.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:40TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:55TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:56TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:10TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−7.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
61.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 2 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
61.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-5
61.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
61.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
61.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.9%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
60.9%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
60.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus Gaines, broken up by Craig SuitsSimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
61.0%
Will Johnson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Demarco Nelson at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
61.0%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+5
60.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Mandel Dixon for 5 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-3
60.9%
Dane Evans sacked by Mershad Dillon for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
60.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
60.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
60.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to David Lewis for 14 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
60.4%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
60.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+2
60.7%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
60.9%
Will Johnson punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
60.9%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
60.8%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
60.7%
Dalton Parks punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
60.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+2
60.5%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+14
60.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 14 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
60.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
60.0%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-10
60.1%
Franks,T rush for 11 yards to the TLS28 (SIZELOVE, J.), PENALTY TXST holding (Tuttle,Charlie) 10 yards to the TLS49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 14
OPP 49
0
60.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Terrence FranksSimilar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
60.9%
Will Johnson punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
60.5%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+4
60.5%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+4
60.1%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
60.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Zack Langer for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+11
60.6%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
60.7%
Keevan Lucas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
60.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 5 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
60.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
60.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:0040% → 40%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
59.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 6 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+20
59.1%
C.J. Best run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
58.5%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+8
58.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 8 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
58.2%
Tim Gay run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+8
57.8%
Terrence Franks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
57.6%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-7
57.8%
Tyler Jones sacked by Derrick Alexander for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 32 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by TexSt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 32
-10
59.3%
Tyler Jones sacked by Jeremy Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 27
OPP 42
0
60.2%
Will Johnson punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tulsa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 52 yds · 0:2960% → 61%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
60.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris Garrett, broken up by David MimsSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
60.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+39
59.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 39 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
62.6%
James Flanders run for 17 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
63.3%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-4
63.4%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 9
OPP 42
-5
62.8%
EVANS, D. pass complete to GARRETT, K. for 14 yards to the TXST28 (Mims,David), PENALTY TLS illegal formation 5 yards to the TXST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
61.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
60.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 3:2339% → 53%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
60.6%
Terrence Franks run for 11 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
59.9%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
60.3%
Terrence Franks run for 13 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
59.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to David Lewis for 11 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
58.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 9 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+7
57.6%
Tim Gay run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+29
57.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brice Gunter for 29 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
57.1%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
57.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to David Lewis for 5 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.1%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
49.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28 TULSA Penalty, clipping (Zack Langer) to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 21
OWN 14
+6
49.7%
Zack Langer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
49.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for no gain to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+13
48.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 13 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
49.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 44 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for no gain to the TexSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
48.5%
Terrence Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+5
48.7%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+2
48.6%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+45
49.4%
Will Johnson punt for 45 yds , Conner Floyd returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.1%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
47.8%
Dane Evans sacked by Dallas McClarty for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+6
46.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 62 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 6 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0355% → 54%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
45.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for no gain to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
44.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 6 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-3
44.8%
Terrence Franks run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
46.0%
Will Johnson punt for 33 yds , James Flanders returns for no gain to the Tulsa 48 James Flanders fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Jake HanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0048% → 49%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
47.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
48.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 7 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
48.5%
Dane Evans pass intercepted, touchback. Craig Mager return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:5858% → 74%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
42.4%
C.J. Best run for 15 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
40.7%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+8
41.2%
Terrence Franks run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
50
+23
40.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 23 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
39.8%
Terrence Franks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
39.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 0
0
40.4%
Jones,Tyler pass incomplete to Garrey,Ryan, PENALTY TXST personal foul off-setting, PENALTY TLS personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+10
40.4%
Jones,Tyler pass complete to Smith,Brandon for 6 yards to the TLS15 (NELSON, D.), PENALTY TLS holding 10 yards to the TLS11, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
39.8%
Tyler Jones run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
25.8%
Terrence Franks run for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 5:5929% → 31%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
29.3%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
30.1%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
30.1%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
31.7%
Tavarreon Dickerson run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43 Tavarreon Dickerson fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Blake BelcherSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
31.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+6
31.9%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
32.5%
Dane Evans sacked by Michael Odiari for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+10
30.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 10 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+6
31.9%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
32.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
32.5%
James Flanders run for 11 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
32.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
32.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
32.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 5:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
30.8%
Carl Salazar 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5171% → 83%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
28.8%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+19
28.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 19 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
26.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Terrence FranksSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
26.8%
C.J. Best run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
26.2%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
26.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-3
26.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Terrence Franks for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
17.3%
Will Johnson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:5820% → 20%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.5%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
19.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Mandel Dixon for 18 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
21.8%
Zack Langer run for 9 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+16
22.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 16 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
23.1%
Zack Langer run for 20 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
23.1%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
20.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
19.9%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.6%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
12.6%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+5
12.7%
Terrence Franks run for 5 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
13.1%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+5
13.4%
Will Johnson punt for 43 yds , Conner Floyd returns for 5 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:4118% → 36%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
17.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 12 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
18.2%
James Flanders run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+4
18.2%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
17.8%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
18.5%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
35.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 17 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 2:3777% → 79%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.7%
Tim Gay run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
22.3%
Tyler Jones run for 12 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
20.4%
Tyler Jones run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 1
50
+8
19.2%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
19.4%
Franks,T rush for 3 yards to the TLS39 (SIZELOVE, J.), PENALTY TXST holding (Freeman,Matt) 10 yards to the TXST48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 20
OWN 48
0
20.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+10
21.0%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+8
19.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 8 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 2
OPP 34
-5
20.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Charlie Will Tuttle) to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+14
20.8%
Will Johnson punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 10 TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (David Lewis) to the Tulsa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 7:0027% → 60%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.6%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
27.4%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
28.0%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+10
26.1%
Mandel Dixon run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
29.8%
Mandel Dixon run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-1
31.0%
Mandel Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+8
29.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 8 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
32.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
32.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
31.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua Atkinson, broken up by Mershad DillonSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+8
29.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 8 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
35.1%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+26
35.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 26 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.1%
Mandel Dixon run for no gain to the TexSt 3Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
35.1%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.7%
Zack Langer run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.9%
Dane Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
48.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 80%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
64.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+12
64.7%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to DIXON, M., PENALTY TXST roughing passer 12 yards to the TXST12, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
64.7%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
64.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner Floyd, broken up by Germod WilliamsSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
79.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 10 yds for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26TD
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 50%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
82.4%
Terrence Franks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+1
85.8%
C.J. Best run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 17Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+9
88.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 9 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
79.3%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
79.3%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 7Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
86.0%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 5 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+35
15.5%
Ben Ijah 35 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Will Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 15:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
28.1%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
28.1%
Zack Langer run for 5 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
28.1%
Zack Langer run for 2 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
28.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 7 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+1
25.8%
Mandel Dixon run for 1 yd to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
28.1%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.7%
Zack Langer 4 Yd Run (Carl Salazar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 30:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
64.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 9 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+3
64.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
64.7%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-4
64.7%
Dane Evans sacked by Kris Petersen for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 14Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
62.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
OT3 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
78.6%
Carl Salazar 31 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 30TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 30:0029% → 89%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
70.9%
C.J. Best run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 27Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+1
74.1%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+24
79.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 24 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.3%
Terrence Franks 2 Yd RunSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT3 0:00
Terrence Franks 2 Yd Run
-67.9
TD · Q4 0:10
Dane Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carl Salazar KICK)
+39.5
TD · OT2 0:00
Zack Langer 4 Yd Run (Carl Salazar Kick)
+36.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com