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MEM

Memphis 3 at Ole Miss 24

MISS
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Tearris Wallace run for 5 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:27: Timeout MEMPHIS, clock 00:27 — MISS win probability +3.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 9:58: Paxton Lynch pass incomplete — MEM win probability +5.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:28: Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Memph 26 — MISS win probability +5.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:04: Andrew Fletcher 19 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +9.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:34: Jaylen Walton run for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK) — MISS win probability +11.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:39MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:42MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:44MEM 4th & 17 at MEM 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:17MISS 4th & 14 at MEM 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:50MEM 4th & 17 at MEM 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:18MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:25MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:23MEM 4th & 12 at MISS 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00MEM 4th & 11 at MISS 48, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:07MEM 4th & 2 at MISS 44, down 4
    Close callPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:11MISS 4th & 3 at MEM 26, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−5.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:55MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:04MISS 4th & 2 at MEM 2, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.9%−3.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−14.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:57MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:41MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 37, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:13MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 27, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:34MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:06MEM 4th & 26 at MEM 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 12:01MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 9:34MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:18MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0192% → 91%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
91.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-4
91.7%
Laquon Treadwell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
91.4%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+3
91.4%
Will Gleeson punt for 50 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 3 yds to the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:579% → 9%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
91.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
91.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+5
91.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 5 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+2
91.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 40 yds , Markell Pack returns for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:1991% → 91%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
91.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+63
91.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 63 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:179% → 9%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
91.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
91.2%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-8
91.1%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Bryon Bennett for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
91.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5INT
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:3091% → 91%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
91.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+6
91.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 6 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
91.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 7 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+3
91.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 3 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
91.0%
Jeremy Liggins run for 4 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+12
91.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 12 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
91.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 5 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
90.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+17
90.9%
Bo Wallace pass intercepted Bobby McCain return for 17 yds to the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:4210% → 11%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
90.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 9 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
90.2%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+3
90.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+15
90.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+42
89.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 42 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-12
89.5%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 12 yards to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
-2
89.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
-2
89.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 0
OPP 23
+40
88.7%
Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7MISSED FG
19 plays · 52 yds · 6:2889% → 87%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
88.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 8 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
88.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 10 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
88.6%
Bo Wallace run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+2
88.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 2 yds Cody Core fumbled, forced by Cortez Crosby, recovered by Miss Vince Sanders , return for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+14
87.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 14 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
88.3%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the Memph 44Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
88.3%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+13
87.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 13 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
88.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Memph 24 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 13
OPP 34
0
87.8%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+15
87.5%
Wallace, Bo pass incomplete, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference 15 yards to the MEMPHIS19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
87.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 14
OPP 23
0
87.6%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 14
OPP 23
0
87.2%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+40
86.5%
Andrew Fletcher 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2314% → 14%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
86.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
86.3%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-7
86.3%
Paxton Lynch sacked by C.J. Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
86.5%
Spencer Smith punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2387% → 86%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.3%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
87.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
86.7%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 15
OWN 43
0
86.2%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 15
OWN 43
+3
85.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 54 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 3 yds to the Memph 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3515% → 14%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
85.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the Memph 7Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
85.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 9
OWN 7
0
85.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 9
OWN 7
-7
86.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 40 yds , Markell Pack returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 46 Markell Pack fumbled, recovered by Memph Reggis BallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3716% → 15%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
83.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 8 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-1
83.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 39Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-9
83.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
84.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 46 yds, downed at the Miss 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12INT
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:4285% → 85%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
85.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the Miss 6Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+4
85.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
85.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 11 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+22
84.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 22 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
85.9%
Mark Dodson run for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
85.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 10 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
86.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 6 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+5
86.1%
Mark Dodson run for 5 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
85.4%
Mark Dodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+13
84.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 13 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
85.2%
Bo Wallace pass intercepted Bobby McCain return for no gain to the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 1:2617% → 15%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
83.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
82.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
82.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 15 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
81.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Adrian Henderson for 11 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
79.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Sam CraftSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-4
80.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+3
83.5%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
85.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:3817% → 20%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 3 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
82.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
83.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 9 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
81.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 8 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
80.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 3 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
80.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
80.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 4 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+4
79.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
80.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 29 yds, downed at the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0982% → 84%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
81.6%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+11
81.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 11 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
83.5%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
83.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+16
82.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 16 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-9
83.5%
Bo Wallace run for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 30 Bo Wallace fumbled, recovered by Memph Cortez CrosbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0322% → 21%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
78.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
78.3%
Jarvis Cooper run for 8 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-5
78.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+47
79.1%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Trae Elston return for 47 yds to the Memph 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1785% → 83%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
85.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-6
84.9%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+6
83.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Markell Pack for 6 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
82.5%
Andrew Fletcher 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0719% → 18%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
80.6%
Jarvis Cooper run for no gain to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
80.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-1
81.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
82.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FG
18 plays · 75 yds · 7:3182% → 89%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
81.5%
Mark Dodson run for 6 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-1
81.7%
Mark Dodson run for 9 yds to the Miss 38 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+1
81.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+6
80.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Markell Pack for 6 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
81.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Nicholas Parker for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-3
81.0%
Bo Wallace sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+15
79.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 15 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
82.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 9 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+15
83.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
83.5%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
83.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 9 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
82.2%
Jeremy Liggins run for 3 yds to the Memph 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
83.2%
Bo Wallace run for 4 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+7
83.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 7 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
83.0%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Memph 22Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+4
82.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+16
80.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 16 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q4 13:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
89.1%
Andrew Fletcher 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5514% → 13%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
85.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
86.8%
Jarvis Cooper run for 3 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
87.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4989% → 89%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
88.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
89.1%
Bo Wallace run for 3 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
89.5%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
88.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4814% → 15%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
85.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 16Similar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+15
85.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
84.9%
Jarvis Cooper run for 2 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-10
84.6%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 10 yards to the Memph 23 Paxton Lynch fumbled, recovered by Miss Issac Gross , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
96.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:156% → 6%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Jarvis Cooper run for no gain to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Jarvis Cooper for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
94.5%
Spencer Smith punt for 53 yds , Markell Pack returns for no gain to the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2696% → 96%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
96.4%
Mark Dodson run for 4 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:286% → 5%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
94.4%
Jarvis Cooper run for 8 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+6
93.9%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-16
93.8%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Lavon Hooks for a loss of 16 yards to the Memph 29 MEMPHIS Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 26
OWN 29
0
94.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 26
OWN 29
0
94.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 26
OWN 29
0
95.0%
Spencer Smith punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Anthony Alford at the Miss 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 3:4897% → 100%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
97.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+18
97.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 18 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
97.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 11 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
97.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the Memph 36 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
97.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
98.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the Memph 17Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
99.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Laquon Treadwell for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.4%
Tearris Wallace run for 5 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
99.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tearris Wallace for 1 yd to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+5
99.4%
Tearris Wallace run for 5 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:34
Jaylen Walton run for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Fletcher KICK)
+11.8
FG · Q4 13:04
Andrew Fletcher 19 yd FG GOOD
+9
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:28
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Memph 26
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com