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CIN

Cincinnati 28 at Ohio State 50

OSU
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:57 · John Lloyd punt for 39 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 2 yds to the OhSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior+12.8Home team on offense+10.9Score differential+3.1Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:23: Johnny Holton 19 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +5.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:26: Chris Moore 83 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +6.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:20: Chris Moore 78 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick) — CIN win probability +10.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:59: Sean Nuernberger 42 Yd Field Goal — OSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:18: Dontre Wilson 24 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 7:47CIN 4th & 5 at OSU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:30OSU 4th & 1 at CIN 49, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:39CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 28, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:58CIN 4th & 7 at midfield, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:51OSU 4th & 10 at CIN 45, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:03OSU 4th & 8 at CIN 8, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−6.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:59OSU 4th & 7 at CIN 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−8.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:57CIN 4th & 25 at CIN 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−4.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:30CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:56CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 41, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:56OSU 4th & 2 at CIN 23, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:18CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 31, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:36CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:24OSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:32OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:34OSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:23CIN Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:26CIN Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:20CIN Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:18OSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:26OSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 0:5914% → 15%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
85.6%
Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+3
85.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 3 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+15
85.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 15 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
85.0%
Chris Moore 60 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1285% → 85%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 20Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
85.0%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 15 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
84.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+17
84.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 17 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
84.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 9 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+9
84.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 9 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
84.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jeff Heuerman for 24 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.0%
Rod Smith 3 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:3715% → 17%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
84.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+2
84.5%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+7
84.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 7 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
84.2%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+11
84.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 11 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
83.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
83.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+2
83.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+8
83.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 8 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
83.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dontre Wilson at the OhSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 3:1583% → 85%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
83.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 13 yds to the OhSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
83.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 20 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
83.5%
Dontre Wilson run for 21 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
83.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+7
83.6%
Jalin Marshall run for 7 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+18
83.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 13 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeff Luc) to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
83.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.3%
Ezekiel Elliott 3 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5SF
2 plays · -25 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.7%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Joey Bosa for loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 17, fumble by Gunner Kiel recovered by Cincy Eric Lefeld at Cincy 0, Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:1585% → 88%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
84.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
84.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+4
84.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
85.1%
Rod Smith run for 11 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
85.1%
Jalin Marshall run for 12 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
84.9%
Jalin Marshall run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+2
84.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
88.2%
Devin Smith 19 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2914% → 14%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Hosey Williams for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
86.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
86.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny HoltonSimilar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
86.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:0588% → 93%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
88.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+6
88.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
88.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 13 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
88.6%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Terrell Hartsfield for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+10
88.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 10 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+7
88.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
89.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+19
93.3%
Evan Spencer 19 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 2:368% → 7%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.3%
Jarred Evans run for 8 yds to the Cincy 33 Jarred Evans fumbled, recovered by Cincy Jarred EvansSimilar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
92.1%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
92.3%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
92.2%
Jarred Evans run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
92.7%
Hosey Williams run for 7 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
91.9%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the OhSt 45Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-5
92.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 7
50
0
93.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 7
50
0
93.1%
John Lloyd punt for 26 yds, downed at the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10FUMBLE
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:5194% → 95%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
94.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 19Similar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+4
94.3%
Curtis Samuel run for 4 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+8
94.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Curtis Samuel for 8 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+7
94.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 7 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
94.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 5 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-5
94.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
94.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 9 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+15
94.7%
Curtis Samuel run for 15 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.2%
Curtis Samuel run for no gain to the Cincy 42 Curtis Samuel fumbled, forced by Jeff Luc, recovered by Cincy Leviticus PayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:447% → 12%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
93.3%
Tion Green run for 13 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
93.2%
Gunner Kiel run for 19 yds to the OhSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
93.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 7 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
93.0%
Gunner Kiel run for 5 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
93.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
93.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 19Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+19
88.1%
Johnny Holton 19 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 3:3291% → 91%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
90.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 12 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
90.8%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-10
91.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+7
90.9%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+9
90.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 9 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
91.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+9
91.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
91.7%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Dontre WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
91.7%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Ezekiel ElliottSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
91.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Devin SmithSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
91.1%
Cameron Johnston punt for 42 yds, downed at the Cincy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
4 plays · 97 yds · 1:2510% → 16%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
89.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+3
90.0%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+7
89.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 7 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
83.7%
Chris Moore 83 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:2684% → 85%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
84.6%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 10 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 4:5785% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
85.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+14
85.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 14 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
85.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jeff Heuerman for 6 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+8
86.5%
Rod Smith run for 8 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
86.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+7
86.7%
Rod Smith run for 7 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
86.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 8 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+3
86.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
86.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
87.1%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
86.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Evan SpencerSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
89.0%
Sean Nuernberger 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:4312% → 23%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
87.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 7 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+78
76.9%
Chris Moore 78 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2179% → 86%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
80.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 11 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
80.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 12 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
81.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 16 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
82.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
81.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 15
OPP 33
0
80.7%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+8
79.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jeff Heuerman for 8 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
86.4%
Sean Nuernberger 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · -1 yds · 2:0216% → 14%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
84.5%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
84.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+11
85.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 11 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
83.4%
Kiel, Gunner pass incomplete to Holton, Johnny, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Holton, Johnny) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 25
OWN 25
+5
85.0%
Hosey Williams run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 20
OWN 30
-5
85.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 25
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 25
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 25
OWN 25
+2
86.4%
John Lloyd punt for 39 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 2 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:3988% → 95%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
87.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
88.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
88.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 12 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
89.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+2
89.4%
Rod Smith run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+6
88.7%
Rod Smith run for 6 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
94.8%
Dontre Wilson 24 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:488% → 7%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
92.4%
Jarred Evans run for 4 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
92.1%
Jarred Evans pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
92.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
93.3%
John Lloyd punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dontre Wilson at the OhSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:3495% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
94.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 9 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+4
94.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
94.9%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
95.4%
Rod Smith run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
95.6%
J.T. Barrett run for 2 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+6
95.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 6 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.2%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Dontre WilsonSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
96.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 10 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.4%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Evan SpencerSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
96.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jalin Marshall for 1 yd to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-5
96.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+34
99.3%
Devin Smith 34 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:301% → 1%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
98.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 10 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
98.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 4 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
98.9%
John Lloyd punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 4:0099% → 100%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
99.3%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 17 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+14
99.5%
Rod Smith run for 14 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.5%
Rod Smith run for 5 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
99.5%
Rod Smith run for 4 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-1
99.5%
Rod Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
99.5%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.3%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
99.3%
Gunner Kiel run for no gain to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
99.4%
John Lloyd punt for 54 yds, downed at the OhSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 2 yds · 3:18100% → 100%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
99.6%
Curtis Samuel run for 1 yd to the OhSt 16Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
99.6%
Curtis Samuel run for 5 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+6
99.7%
Bri'onte Dunn run for 6 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-20
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the OhSt 7Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 30
OWN 7
+10
99.6%
Cardale Jones run for 10 yds to the OhSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:20
Chris Moore 78 Yd pass from Gunner Kiel (Andrew Gantz Kick)
-10.9
FG · Q3 5:59
Sean Nuernberger 42 Yd Field Goal
+7
TD · Q3 1:18
Dontre Wilson 24 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com