2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Lincoln Financial Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreDSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:49 · TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Artrel Foster return for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- PUNT · Q1 11:49: TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Artrel Foster return for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — DSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:57: Jamie Gilmore run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:22: P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 31 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — DSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:45: Gilbert Rivera pass intercepted for a TD Sharif Finch return for 65 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4DSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 11:49DSU 4th & 10 at DSU 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q1 6:18DSU 4th & 5 at DSU 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 6:10TEM 4th & 3 at DSU 29, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.5%52% to convertField goal98.5%−0.158% to makePunt98.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:57DSU 4th & 4 at DSU 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 1:00DSU 4th & 11 at DSU 2, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 10:39DSU 4th & 5 at DSU 28, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 15:00TEM 4th & 17 at DSU 39, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.115% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 9:53DSU 4th & 5 at DSU 16, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 3:16TEM 4th & 7 at DSU 8, up 49Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%90% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 15:00DSU 4th & 13 at DSU 29, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 10:47DSU 4th & 18 at DSU 27, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:15TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 18, up 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 5:55DSU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 59Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 10:19TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:57TEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:22TEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:45TEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:01TEM Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:54TEM Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDSUDrive 1PUNT TD8 plays · 11 yds · 3:111% → 1%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.0%
Gilbert Rivera pass complete to Marquel Knight for 5 yds to the DelSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.0%
Gilbert Rivera pass complete to Marquel Knight for 1 yd to the DelSt 37Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+15
98.8%
TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Artrel Foster return for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 2FUMBLE3 plays · -22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
TEMDrive 3TD2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4199% → 99%
DSUDrive 4PUNT RETURN TD9 plays · 19 yds · 4:011% → 1%
Q1 10:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
98.8%
Gilbert Rivera pass complete to Nagee Jackson for 7 yds to the DelSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+7
98.8%
Gilbert Rivera pass complete to Marquel Knight for 7 yds to the DelSt 44Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
98.8%
Gilbert Rivera pass incomplete to Marquel Knight DELAWARE ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+84
98.8%
Jeremiah McGeough punt for 40 yds , Khalif Herbin returns for 84 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 5INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Gilbert Rivera pass intercepted Nate D. Smith return for no gain to the Temp 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6TD9 plays · 54 yds · 3:1399% → 99%
DSUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 2:57
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+9
99.3%
Gilbert Rivera pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 9 yds to the DelSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.3%
P.J. Walker pass intercepted Ronald Robinson return for no gain to the DelSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 1:00
4TH & 11
OWN 2
0
99.3%
Jeremiah McGeough punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DelSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10TD2 plays · 35 yds · 0:3899% → 99%
DSUDrive 11INT TD9 plays · 41 yds · 3:281% → 0%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
99.4%
Gilbert Rivera pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 9 yds to the DelSt 30Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Gilbert Rivera pass incomplete to Joseph Ceravolo, broken up by Anthony RobeySimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+30
99.5%
Gilbert Rivera pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 15 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, roughing passer (N/A) to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
99.4%
Gilbert Rivera pass complete to Marquel Knight for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 38Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+65
99.6%
Gilbert Rivera pass intercepted for a TD Sharif Finch return for 65 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TEMDrive 13INT12 plays · 57 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Khalif Herbin for 5 yds to the Temp 40Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
99.6%
WALKER,P.J. pass complete to OMUSO,Wanemi for 10 yards to the 50 yardline (WILLIAMS,E.;DAVIS,M.), PENALTY TU illegal touching (OMUSO,Wanemi) 5 yards to the TU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+26
99.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 26 yds to the DelSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jamie Gilmore for 7 yds to the DelSt 32Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
99.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Khalif Herbin for 10 yds to the DelSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Saledeem Major for 6 yds to the DelSt 12Similar
Q2 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.7%
P.J. Walker pass intercepted, touchback. Willie Burton return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 14INT3 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TEMDrive 15TD5 plays · 36 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
DSUDrive 16END OF HALF3 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TEMDrive 17PUNT12 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+11
99.8%
Connor Reilly pass complete to Jahad Thomas for 11 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-10
99.8%
THOMAS,Jahad rush for 7 yards to the DSU16 (COLSTON,T.), PENALTY TU holding (CALDERONE,Peter) 10 yards to the DSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-7
99.8%
Connor Reilly run for a loss of 7 yards to the DelSt 42 Connor Reilly fumbled, recovered by Temp Connor ReillySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 42
+3
99.8%
Connor Reilly pass complete to Jamie Gilmore for 3 yds to the DelSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Alex Starzyk punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Marquel Knight at the DelSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q3 9:53
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Jeremiah McGeough punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DelSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19FG10 plays · 27 yds · 4:52100% → 100%
DSUDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 3:090% → 0%
Q3 3:09
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+9
100.0%
KELLY,M. pass incomplete to WILLIAMS,Mi., PENALTY TU pass interference (JEFFERSON,C) 9 yards to the DSU32, 1ST DOWN DSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-10
99.9%
KELLY,M. rush for 2 yards to the DSU37 (LOVETT,Shahid), PENALTY DSU holding (WILLIAMS,K.) 10 yards to the DSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 17
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
Marlon Kelly sacked by Haason Reddick for a loss of 2 yards to the DelSt 23Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 19
OWN 23
+6
100.0%
Marlon Kelly pass complete to Marquel Knight for 6 yds to the DelSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+14
100.0%
Jeremiah McGeough punt for 48 yds , Khalif Herbin returns for 14 yds to the Temp 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21TD8 plays · 63 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
DSUDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+18
100.0%
Marlon Kelly run for 3 yds to the DelSt 20 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Kiser Terry) to the DelSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-6
100.0%
Marlon Kelly sacked by Jullian Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the DelSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:15
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
100.0%
Alex Starzyk punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marquel Knight at the DelSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:55
2ND & 4
50
-1
100.0%
Marlon Kelly pass complete to Marquel Knight for a loss of 1 yard to the DelSt 49Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-5
100.0%
DELAWARE ST Penalty, false start (Marquel Knight) to the DelSt 44Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
Marlon Kelly pass complete to Malcolm Williams for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25END OF GAME6 plays · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:57
Jamie Gilmore run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
+0.4
PUNT · Q1 11:49
TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Artrel Foster return for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
-0.2
TD · Q2 10:45
Gilbert Rivera pass intercepted for a TD Sharif Finch return for 65 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
+0.2