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TA&M

Texas A&M 58 at SMU 6

SMU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:45 · Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 6 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior−15.3Home team on offense−53.5Score differential−41.7Garbage-time factor−14.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:12: Trey Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:15: Kenny Hill pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 30 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:43: Trey Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:21: Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 70 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 9:40: Josh Lambo 50 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:54TA&M 4th & 9 at SMU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:41SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:49SMU 4th & 19 at SMU 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:09SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:08SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:36SMU 4th & 12 at TA&M 12, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:34SMU 4th & 3 at TA&M 30, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:52SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 42, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:40TA&M 4th & 12 at SMU 32, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:52SMU 4th & 14 at TA&M 26, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:56SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 33, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:14TA&M 4th & 9 at TA&M 45, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:10SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 32, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:55TA&M 4th & 6 at SMU 6, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:45SMU 4th & 5 at TA&M 35, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 5:12TA&M Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:15TA&M Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:43TA&M Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:26TA&M Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:21TA&M Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:47TA&M Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:01TA&M Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 2:4097% → 96%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
3.1%
Brandon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexAM 16 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Williams) to the TexAM 8Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-1
3.1%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 7Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+38
3.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 38 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
3.3%
Tra Carson run for 8 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+15
3.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 15 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
3.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 10 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
3.6%
Trey Williams run for 1 yd to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
3.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
3.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Malcome KennedySimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
3.7%
Josh Lambo 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:174% → 4%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
3.7%
Kolney Cassel pass complete to Nate Halverson for 2 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
3.8%
Kevin Pope run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
3.9%
Kolney Cassel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
3.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Nick Harvey at the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3INT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:0896% → 95%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
4.0%
Brandon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+4
4.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 4 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+12
4.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 12 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
4.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 6 yds to the 50 yard line TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ricky Seals-Jones) to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 14
OWN 40
+13
4.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Brandon Williams for 13 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+10
4.4%
Tra Carson run for 10 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
4.5%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
4.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-5
4.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 12
OPP 39
0
4.7%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Shakiel Randolph return for no gain to the SMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:265% → 5%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
4.8%
Kolney Cassel pass incomplete to Nate HalversonSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
4.8%
Kolney Cassel pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
4.8%
Kolney Cassel pass incomplete to Nate HalversonSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
4.8%
Jackson Koonce punt for 53 yds, downed at the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:1895% → 96%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
5.0%
Trey Williams run for 9 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+58
5.0%
Kenny Hill run for 58 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
5.0%
Trey Williams run for 1 yd to the SMU 8Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
4.5%
Trey Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:015% → 5%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
4.8%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 19
-3
4.9%
Kolney Cassel sacked by Alonzo Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 12
OWN 16
-7
4.8%
Kolney Cassel sacked by Shaan Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 19
OWN 9
+14
4.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 54 yds , Nick Harvey returns for 14 yds to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:2795% → 96%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
5.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 9 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
5.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
5.1%
Tra Carson run for 1 yd to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
5.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jeremy TabuyoSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
5.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 9 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+30
3.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 30 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:464% → 4%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
4.1%
Kevin Pope run for 4 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-5
4.2%
Kolney Cassel sacked by Qualen Cunningham for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+1
4.2%
Kevin Pope run for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
4.3%
Jackson Koonce punt for 32 yds, downed at the TexAM 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:1796% → 97%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
3.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 9 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
3.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Malcome Kennedy for 2 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
3.8%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Pope, Edward, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Richardson, Jr) 15 yards to the SMU25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
3.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 20 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.9%
Trey Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:303% → 3%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.4%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Kevin PopeSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
3.4%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Nate Halverson for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
3.5%
Garrett Krstich run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 31 Garrett Krstich fumbled, recovered by SMU Garrett KrstichSimilar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
3.4%
Jackson Koonce punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nick Harvey at the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1997% → 97%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
3.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 9 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+11
3.0%
Trey Williams run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
50
+31
2.9%
Trey Williams run for 31 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
2.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 9 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+10
2.9%
Brandon Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12FG
18 plays · 53 yds · 7:502% → 4%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
1.9%
Krstich, Garrett pass complete to Halverson, Nate for 5 yards to the SMU40, PENALTY TEXASAM offside (Bass, Justin) 5 yards to the SMU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 5
OWN 40
-5
2.8%
Garrett Krstich sacked by Justin Manning for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
2.7%
Garrett Krstich run for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
2.7%
Kevin Pope run for 1 yd to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
2.9%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
2.8%
Garrett Krstich run for 8 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+7
2.8%
Kevin Pope run for 7 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
3.1%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+18
3.0%
Kevin Pope run for 18 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
3.1%
Kevin Pope run for 1 yd to the TexAM 17Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+7
3.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Shelby Walker for 7 yds to the TexAM 10Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+2
2.8%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
3.6%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Prescott LineSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 0
OPP 8
-5
3.0%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Kris Weeks) to the TexAM 13Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
3.4%
Garrett Krstich run for 4 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
3.8%
Garrett Krstich sacked by Shaan Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 12Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
3.6%
Cody Rademacher 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:544% → 2%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
3.6%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
3.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Nate Halverson for 2 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+5
2.3%
Kevin Pope run for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
2.1%
Garrett Krstich pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
1.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 70 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
1.4%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:031% → 1%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.3%
Kevin Pope run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
0.9%
Garrett Krstich sacked by Jay Arnold and Alonzo Williams for 0 yards to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
0.9%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 13 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.9%
Kevin Pope run for no gain to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
0.9%
Garrett Krstich run for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
0.9%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+23
0.8%
Jackson Koonce punt for 38 yds, downed at the TEXASAM 20 SMU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:5099% → 99%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.9%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
0.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Boone NiederhoferSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+17
0.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 17 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
0.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 6 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+10
0.8%
Tra Carson run for 10 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
0.8%
Kyle Allen pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
0.7%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy TabuyoSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 12
OPP 32
0
0.8%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Frank IheanachoSimilar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+50
1.1%
Josh Lambo 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:281% → 1%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
0.6%
Garrett Krstich sacked by Jay Arnold for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+4
0.5%
Kevin Pope run for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+53
0.5%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 53 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
0.6%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the TexAM 21Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
0.6%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Nate HalversonSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-5
0.6%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Seaver Myers) to the TexAM 26Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 14
OPP 26
0
0.5%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Prescott LineSimilar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+44
0.5%
Cody Rademacher 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:5399% → 100%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
0.6%
Kyle Allen run for 8 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+16
0.6%
Kyle Allen pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
50
+50
0.5%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 50 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.4%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
0.3%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
0.3%
K.C. Nlemchi run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
0.3%
Jackson Koonce punt for 39 yds , LaQuvionte Gonzalez returns for 4 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
0.4%
James White run for 7 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
0.4%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 5 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Sabian HolmesSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
0.4%
Kyle Allen run for 1 yd to the TexAM 45Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
0.4%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Jamal JefferySimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
0.4%
Drew Kaser punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Daijuan Stewart at the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
0.3%
Garrett Krstich run for 13 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
0.3%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
0.2%
Darius Durall run for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-2
0.2%
Garrett Krstich sacked by Darrell Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+28
0.2%
Jackson Koonce punt for 54 yds , LaQuvionte Gonzalez returns for 28 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
0.3%
James White run for 15 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
0.3%
Brice Dolezal run for 7 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+9
0.3%
Brice Dolezal run for 9 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
0.3%
Kyle Allen pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 18 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
0.3%
James White run for 3 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to Frank IheanachoSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.2%
Kyle Allen pass incomplete to LaQuvionte GonzalezSimilar
Q4 12:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
0.3%
Josh Lambo 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:350% → 0%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+32
0.2%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 17 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
0.2%
K.C. Nlemchi run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 41Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+6
0.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 6 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Garrett Krstich pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+6
0.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 6 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
0.2%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 3 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+20
0.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 20 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
0.2%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 3 yds to the TexAM 3Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
0.2%
Darius Durall run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 8Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-12
0.2%
Garrett Krstich run for 3 yds to the TexAM 5 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Daijuan Stewart) to the TexAM 20Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+37
0.1%
Cody Rademacher 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
0.2%
James White run for 4 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
0.2%
James White run for 7 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
0.1%
Kyle Allen pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 20 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Horton) to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
0.1%
James White run for 20 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
0.1%
Brice Dolezal run for 5 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
0.1%
Brice Dolezal run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.1%
James White run for 8 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26END OF GAME
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
0.1%
Luke Seeker run for 6 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
0.1%
Luke Seeker run for 1 yd to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+7
0.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 7 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
0.1%
Garrett Krstich run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-5
0.1%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Taylor Reich) to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+10
0.1%
Garrett Krstich run for 10 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+4
0.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Stephen Nelson for 4 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.1%
Garrett Krstich pass incomplete to Daijuan StewartSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.1%
Garrett Krstich pass complete to Luke Seeker for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:15
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 30 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)
-1.3
TD · Q2 12:43
Trey Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)
-1
TD · Q2 0:21
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 70 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)
-1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com