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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 17 at Memphis 36

MEM
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDFGTDFGFGTDFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:06 · Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the MTnSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior+13.7Home team on offense+9.8Score differential+3.6Garbage-time factor+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:33: Shane Tucker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:34: Doroland Dorceus run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +6.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:09: Jake Elliott 29 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +2.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:51: Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 50 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +8.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 11:13: Austin Grammer run for 13 yds Austin Grammer fumbled, forced by Tank Jakes, recovered by Memph Bobby McCain , return for 59 yds, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +4.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:41MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55MEM 4th & 9 at MTSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00MEM 4th & 11 at MTSU 41, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 11, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:43MEM 4th & 8 at MTSU 10, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:38MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 22, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:34MTSU 4th & 3 at MEM 42, down 12
    Close callPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:06MEM 4th & 2 at MTSU 31, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−1.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 19 at MTSU 16, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−2.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:28MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 44, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:08MEM 4th & 8 at MTSU 46, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    82.7%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:57MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 4, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:09MEM 4th & 1 at MTSU 12, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%−1.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−7.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:33MTSU 4th & 9 at MEM 19, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−5.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:02MEM 4th & 6 at MTSU 33, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.0%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:02MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 37, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:13MTSU 4th & 3 at MEM 34, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:06MEM 4th & 6 at MTSU 46, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:41MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:33MTSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:34MEM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:51MEM Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:17MTSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 3:1974% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
74.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 9 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
74.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
74.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
74.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
74.4%
Brandon Hayes run for no gain to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
74.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Brandon HayesSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+15
74.4%
SMITH, Spencer punt 42 yards to the MT22, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties, PENALTY MT personal foul 15 yards to the MT49, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
74.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
74.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Joe Craig for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+15
74.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 15 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
74.2%
LYNCH, Paxton pass complete to MONTIEL, Daniel for 24 yards to the MT0, clock 12:05, PENALTY MEM illegal touching (MONTIEL, Daniel) 0 yards to the MT24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+17
74.2%
Sam Craft run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
74.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
74.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+11
74.6%
Zachary Lopez punt for 48 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 11 yds to the Memph 45 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the Memph 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
75.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+6
75.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 6 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
75.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 14
50
0
75.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 14
50
+5
74.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 5 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 9
OPP 45
+43
74.8%
Nick Jacobs punt for 42 yds, downed at the MTnSt 3 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block (Brent Stockstill) to the MTnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4SF
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:3125% → 25%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
75.0%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+2
75.0%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 7
OWN 5
-5
75.5%
Austin Grammer sacked by Tank Jakes for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5INT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
75.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+11
75.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
75.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Doroland Dorceus) to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 25
OPP 45
+2
75.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 23
OPP 43
+3
75.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+35
75.2%
Paxton Lynch pass intercepted Xavier Walker return for 35 yds to the Memph 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:4026% → 29%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
74.5%
Reggie Whatley run for 31 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
74.0%
Reggie Whatley run for 4 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+6
74.0%
Shane Tucker run for 6 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.0%
Shane Tucker run for 2 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
73.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, offside defense (Jackson Dillon) to the Memph 1Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.7%
Shane Tucker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:2772% → 72%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
72.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+12
72.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 12 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
73.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+19
72.8%
Sam Craft run for 19 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
73.5%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
73.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Sam CraftSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
73.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Joe Craig) to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
72.7%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
71.6%
Nick Jacobs punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
71.9%
Reggie Whatley run for no gain to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+1
72.0%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
72.5%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Shane TuckerSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
72.9%
Zachary Lopez punt for 36 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for no gain to the MTnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:3473% → 74%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
73.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Sam Craft, broken up by Khari BurkeSimilar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
72.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+12
72.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 12 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
73.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+6
73.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
73.4%
Sam Craft run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
73.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
73.4%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-5
72.8%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
73.9%
Jake Elliott 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
72.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shannon Smith for 6 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
72.1%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-2
72.7%
Austin Grammer sacked by Terry Redden for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+18
73.5%
Zachary Lopez punt for 36 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 18 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:3876% → 82%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
75.8%
Sam Craft run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
76.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+32
82.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
80.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 26 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
79.5%
Shane Tucker run for 8 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-1
79.3%
Shane Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
79.6%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Terry PettisSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
80.0%
Zachary Lopez punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:4582% → 82%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+13
82.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Joe Craig for 13 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
82.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 13 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
82.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 24 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
83.2%
Mose Frazier run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+4
83.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
83.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
83.3%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
82.8%
Brandon Hayes run for no gain to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
81.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the MTnSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14END OF HALF
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:4420% → 17%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
80.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jeremiah Bryson for 6 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
79.9%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
80.4%
Austin Grammer run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
80.3%
Austin Grammer run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+6
79.4%
Reggie Whatley run for 6 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
81.7%
Austin Grammer sacked by Latarius Brady for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 45 Austin Grammer fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Austin Grammer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+3
83.4%
Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 17
OWN 48
+1
83.5%
Austin Grammer run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus HenrySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
82.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Adam Stickel) to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
83.1%
Austin Grammer sacked by Genard Avery for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+1
83.4%
Zachary Lopez punt for 42 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 1 yd to the Memph 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0086% → 84%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
85.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Brandon HayesSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
85.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 3 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-2
84.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
83.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 8 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the MTnSt 48 TEAM fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by Memph Latarius BradySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
86.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 1 yd to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
86.1%
Brandon Hayes run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
85.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Joe CraigSimilar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
84.6%
Nick Jacobs punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 10 , Ed'Marques Batties returns for no gain to the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
83.9%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
84.1%
Austin Grammer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 10
-6
84.3%
Austin Grammer sacked by Tank Jakes for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 4 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 16
OWN 4
+3
84.7%
Zachary Lopez punt for 53 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 3 yds to the Memph 7 MEMPHIS Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:5286% → 88%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
86.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+22
85.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 22 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
86.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+14
86.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 14 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
86.9%
Mose Frazier run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
86.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 7 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
86.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+29
88.3%
Jake Elliott 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:3613% → 16%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
87.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 17 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
86.3%
Shane Tucker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
86.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for no gain to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+8
86.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 8 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
85.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 9 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+17
84.8%
Jordan Parker run for 17 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
84.0%
Reggie Whatley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+2
84.7%
Reggie Whatley run for 2 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
85.7%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Devin Clarke, broken up by Bakari HollierSimilar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
84.5%
Cody Clark 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2089% → 89%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
89.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+8
89.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 8 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
89.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
89.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
88.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin Jones, broken up by Cavellis LuckettSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+50
88.6%
Jake Elliott 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
85.3%
Reggie Whatley run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+8
87.0%
Austin Grammer run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
85.5%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+9
86.3%
Zachary Lopez punt for 44 yds , Keiwone Malone returns for 9 yds to the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:0589% → 98%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.2%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
89.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+7
89.1%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 7 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
90.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 45 Doroland Dorceus fumbled, forced by Jared Singletary, recovered by Memph Doroland DorceusSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-1
90.3%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
89.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
50
+50
97.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 50 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24FUMBLE TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:384% → 0%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.5%
Austin Grammer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
95.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 6 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+4
95.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 4 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+59
99.7%
Austin Grammer run for 13 yds Austin Grammer fumbled, forced by Tank Jakes, recovered by Memph Bobby McCain , return for 59 yds, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25INT
11 plays · 46 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Christian Collis for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 8 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-1
99.7%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+16
99.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 16 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.7%
Austin Grammer run for no gain to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
99.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 7 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
99.6%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+5
99.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 5 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Marcus Henry, broken up by Bobby McCainSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Austin Grammer pass intercepted Tank Jakes return for no gain to the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.7%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+20
99.7%
Brandon Hayes run for 20 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
99.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
50
0
99.8%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
50
+7
99.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
99.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-5
99.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Nick Jacobs punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 1:460% → 3%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
99.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 11 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 7 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+19
99.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
50
0
99.8%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Christian CollisSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 10
50
+15
99.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 15 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+32
99.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 32 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.3%
Shane Tucker run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
99.0%
Brandon Hayes run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+4
99.0%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-2
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:51
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 50 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+8
TD · Q2 7:34
Doroland Dorceus run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+6.1
FUMBLE · Q4 11:13
Austin Grammer run for 13 yds Austin Grammer fumbled, forced by Tank Jakes, recovered by Memph Bobby McCain , return for 59 yds, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com