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UNC

North Carolina 41 at East Carolina 70

ECU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:50 · Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 5 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginPregame prior
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 205Home team on offense+35.5Score differential+28.5Garbage-time factor+10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.9Blowout margin+16.4Pregame prior−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:01: Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 26 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +8.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:48: Breon Allen run for 44 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +8.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:20: Marquise Williams pass intercepted for a TD Zeek Bigger return for 46 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +12.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:49: Romar Morris run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +13.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:14: Shane Carden run for 2 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +6.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 11:58UNC 4th & 4 at ECU 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.1%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42ECU 4th & 16 at ECU 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:00UNC 4th & 4 at ECU 4, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:05UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 49, down 1
    Close callPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:47ECU 4th & 6 at UNC 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:15UNC 4th & 5 at ECU 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:04UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:57ECU 4th & 3 at UNC 44, up 1
    Close callPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−1.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:59UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:54UNC 4th & 22 at midfield, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:33ECU 4th & 16 at UNC 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:57UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 45, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:48UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 28, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:21UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 36, down 29
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:50UNC 4th & 3 at ECU 20, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:04ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:43UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:03ECU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:15UNC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:01ECU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:48ECU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:08ECU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 14:20ECU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:49UNC Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:14ECU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 1:46ECU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:07ECU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 9:28UNC Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 7:30ECU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 7:09UNC Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4646% → 46%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 11 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
45.7%
Breon Allen run for 9 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+55
46.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 55 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 2:0254% → 53%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
46.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 11 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
46.2%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
46.3%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Jack TabbSimilar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+10
46.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for 10 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
46.5%
T.J. Logan run for 7 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+29
46.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 29 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
46.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
46.6%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the ECaro 4Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
47.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q1 11:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
46.6%
Nick Weiler 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:5547% → 48%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
46.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
46.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 11 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
46.9%
Breon Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+6
47.0%
Chris Hairston run for 6 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+11
47.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 11 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
47.9%
Shane Carden pass intercepted Brian Walker return for 23 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
45.8%
Ryan Switzer pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 35 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:4146% → 46%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
46.3%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 8Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
46.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
45.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 12
OWN 8
-4
45.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the ECaro 4Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 16
OWN 4
+6
45.7%
Worth Gregory punt for 49 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 6 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FG
15 plays · 43 yds · 3:2054% → 56%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
45.8%
Romar Morris run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+13
46.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 13 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
46.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 3 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
46.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
46.0%
Romar Morris run for no gain to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+21
46.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Romar Morris for 21 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
45.4%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
45.3%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+4
45.7%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the ECaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
45.3%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 4Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
45.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q1 5:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
45.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
44.3%
Nick Weiler 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 0:3746% → 51%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
45.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 22 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
46.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 23 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
46.9%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
50.7%
Breon Allen run for 11 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4651% → 51%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.9%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
48.5%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
48.1%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
48.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+5
48.6%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
48.8%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 43 yds, downed at the ECaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 2:1149% → 51%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+20
49.4%
Breon Allen run for 5 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Devonte Brown) to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
49.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
49.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Marquez Grayson for 1 yd to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+5
49.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ethan Farmer) to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+11
49.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 11 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
51.1%
Breon Allen run for 7 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+19
51.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 19 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
52.0%
Chris Hairston run for 9 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-5
52.2%
Breon Allen run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
51.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
50.7%
Warren Harvey 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Junior Gnonkonde TEAM return for a loss of 20 yards to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:5551% → 58%
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
49.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 9 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
48.2%
Marquise Williams run for 1 yd to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
48.4%
Romar Morris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+8
48.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 8 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
47.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Jack Tabb for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+8
49.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 8 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
48.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+29
42.4%
Tommy Hibbard pass complete to Eric Albright for 29 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0943% → 54%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
44.1%
Breon Allen run for 3 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
43.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 6 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+10
44.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 10 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
44.9%
Anthony Scott run for 6 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
45.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 6 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
45.9%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 4
OPP 21
-5
44.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ike Harris) to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+26
53.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 26 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:5349% → 47%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
50.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
51.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+2
51.5%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
52.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
53.1%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:5852% → 54%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
52.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 18 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
54.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
53.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 7 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
55.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
53.9%
Worth Gregory punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5048% → 46%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
52.1%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-3
52.4%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+6
53.8%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
54.4%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:0255% → 63%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
55.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+30
54.1%
Marquez Grayson run for 30 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
57.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+15
56.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Nazair Jones) to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
57.6%
Breon Allen run for no gain to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-13
57.6%
Shane Carden sacked by Norkeithus Otis for a loss of 13 yards to the NCaro 39 Shane Carden fumbled, recovered by ECaroSimilar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 23
OPP 39
-5
54.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 28
OPP 44
+44
63.2%
Breon Allen run for 44 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:4737% → 34%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.4%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
63.0%
T.J. Logan run for 10 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
62.2%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 8 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Domonique Lennon) to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-9
60.8%
Marquise Williams sacked by Maurice Falls for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 47 Marquise Williams fumbled, recovered by NCaroSimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 19
OPP 47
-3
63.0%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 22
50
0
64.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 22
50
0
65.6%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 1:4065% → 78%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.2%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
65.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for 10 yds to the ECaro 30 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
65.4%
Breon Allen run for 4 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+39
64.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 39 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
69.4%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
69.3%
Breon Allen run for 9 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+9
69.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 9 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
71.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
71.9%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
78.2%
Shane Carden pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 19 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
75.2%
Romar Morris run for 6 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19INT TD
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:3424% → 12%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.2%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
75.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 3 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
75.3%
Marquise Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+46
88.1%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted for a TD Zeek Bigger return for 46 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:2211% → 23%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.0%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
88.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
50
0
88.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
50
+3
89.0%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+13
89.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 13 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
89.3%
Romar Morris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+19
89.4%
Romar Morris run for 19 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
89.3%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
88.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Kiaro Holts) to the ECaro 7Similar
Q3 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
89.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q3 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
76.6%
Romar Morris run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21MISSED FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 3:5783% → 86%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
82.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-1
82.8%
Breon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+4
82.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
83.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+16
83.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 16 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
84.1%
Breon Allen run for 13 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
84.5%
Breon Allen run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+4
85.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+10
85.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (10 Yards) to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
86.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-6
86.5%
Shane Carden sacked by Tyler Powell for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
86.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+49
85.5%
Warren Harvey 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:3217% → 15%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
82.9%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+9
84.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Kendrick Singleton for 9 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
83.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 3 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
83.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
84.4%
Marquise Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
84.7%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
85.4%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:2688% → 96%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
87.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 14Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+84
89.3%
Breon Allen run for 84 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.9%
Shane Carden run for 2 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:205% → 4%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.2%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
95.2%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
95.3%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+32
95.7%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the EASTCRLINA 25 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:5197% → 100%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
96.7%
Marquez Grayson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+24
96.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 24 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
97.5%
Breon Allen run for 5 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
97.7%
Breon Allen run for 7 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 25 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Romar Morris run for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
99.7%
Chris Hairston run for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+22
99.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 22 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
99.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 13 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.8%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
99.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 7 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
99.8%
Shane Carden run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
99.8%
Breon Allen run for 16 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
99.8%
Anthony Scott run for 11 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Shane Carden run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+39
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 39 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+5
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 5 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+5
99.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 5 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
99.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the ECaro 10Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 5
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jack Tabb for 10 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
99.9%
Chris Hairston run for 9 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Marquez Grayson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+43
99.9%
Chris Hairston run for 43 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Kurt Benkert run for 4 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 30TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:050% → 0%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Romar Morris run for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 31END OF GAME
11 plays · 41 yds · 6:25100% → 100%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Anthony Scott run for 9 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 37Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+12
100.0%
Anthony Scott run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
50
+11
100.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jonathon Weymann for 11 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
100.0%
Marquez Grayson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
100.0%
Marquez Grayson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-3
100.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Quay Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:49
Romar Morris run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q3 14:20
Marquise Williams pass intercepted for a TD Zeek Bigger return for 46 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q2 3:48
Breon Allen run for 44 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com