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M-OH

Miami (OH) 24 at Cincinnati 31

CIN
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Paul Brown Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:59 · Gunner Kiel punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+45.6Home team on offense−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score differential−0.2Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:15: Paul Moses run for 18 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +2.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:52: Andrew Gantz 21 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +2.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: CIN +2 timeouts on the defense).
  3. TD · Q2 0:31: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +2.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:06: Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 74 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +4.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:08: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 29 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +6.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:59CIN 4th & 7 at M-OH 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:03M-OH 4th & 10 at CIN 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:54M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:52CIN 4th & 3 at M-OH 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:52M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:30CIN 4th & 5 at M-OH 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:52CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:21M-OH 4th & 21 at CIN 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:37CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:47M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:20M-OH 4th & 17 at CIN 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:20CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:59M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:54CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:15M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:25CIN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:31CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:06M-OH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:08CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
97.0%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
97.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-6
97.0%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Bryson Albright for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 7Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 7
0
97.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 41 yds, fair catch by David Frazier at the Cincy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:383% → 4%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
96.8%
Andrew Hendrix run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+14
96.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 14 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
96.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 6 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
96.8%
Spencer McInnis run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+1
96.8%
Paul Moses run for 1 yd to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
96.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 23 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
96.2%
WILLIAMS, Hosey rush for 16 yards to the MIAMI49 (JONES, Jarrell), PENALTY CIN holding (MORRISON, Max) 10 yards to the CIN25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+16
96.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 16 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+14
96.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 14 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
96.2%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
96.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
96.2%
Gunner Kiel punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
95.6%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Zach Lewis) to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+4
95.7%
Andrew Hendrix run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
95.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Alex WelchSimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+15
95.7%
Andrew Hendrix run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
95.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 19 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.5%
Dawan Scott run for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
95.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
95.6%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to David FrazierSimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+52
95.7%
Christian Koch punt for 47 yds for a touchback CINCINNATI Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3895% → 95%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Hosey Williams for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
94.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 6 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jarrell Jones) to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
95.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 8 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+7
95.1%
Hosey Williams run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
95.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 27 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.1%
Andrew Hendrix run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
95.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Alex Welch for 7 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
95.1%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Silverberry Mouhon and Brandon Mitchell for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
95.2%
Christian Koch punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
94.6%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Quinten Rollins return for no gain to the MiaOh 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:326% → 8%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.5%
Dawan Scott run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-12
94.3%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Jeff Luc for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+41
94.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 41 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
93.7%
Fred McRae run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
93.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by Howard WilderSimilar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+15
94.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 15 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
93.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
93.1%
Spencer McInnis run for 8 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+18
91.2%
Paul Moses run for 18 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
91.7%
PATTERSON, K. kickoff 65 yards to the CIN0, HOLTON, Johnny return to the CIN20 (OKAFOR, Buchi;CLIFTON, Tre), PENALTY MIAMI offside 5 yards to the MIAMI30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FG
18 plays · 70 yds · 6:1092% → 90%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
92.0%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
92.3%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
92.1%
Gunner Kiel run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
92.2%
KIEL, Gunner pass incomplete to GREEN, Tion, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (KERN, Kent) 3 yards to the CIN44, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
92.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
92.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 1 yd to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+13
92.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 13 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
92.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
92.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+15
92.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 15 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
92.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny Holton, broken up by Marshall TaylorSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
92.7%
Gunner Kiel run for no gain to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+14
92.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 14 yds to the MiaOh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
92.7%
Tion Green run for no gain to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
92.7%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q2 7:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
90.2%
Andrew Gantz 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.4%
Dawan Scott run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
89.4%
Spencer McInnis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
89.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
89.9%
Christian Koch punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Shaq Washington at the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 4:0589% → 92%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
89.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 13 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
89.8%
WILLIAMS, Hosey rush for no gain to the CIN47 (ALLEN, Ikeem), PENALTY CIN holding (SCHLOEMER, K.) 10 yards to the CIN37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+12
89.0%
Gunner Kiel run for 12 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
89.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 6 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
89.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 3 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
90.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
89.9%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Ralph Abernathy for 5 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
89.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Johnny Holton, broken up by Jimmy RousherSimilar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+12
89.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 12 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
90.4%
Gunner Kiel run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 26 Gunner Kiel fumbled, recovered by Cincy Gunner KielSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
90.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq Washington, broken up by Quinten RollinsSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+13
89.8%
Gunner Kiel run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
90.4%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
91.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 12 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.8%
Spencer McInnis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
90.6%
Dawan Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 31 Dawan Scott fumbled, forced by Leviticus Payne, recovered by Cincy Mike TysonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:0691% → 95%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
91.4%
Tion Green run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
91.4%
Tion Green run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
91.4%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 2Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-5
92.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (N/A) to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:547% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Alex Welch, broken up by Zach EdwardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.8%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+74
88.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 74 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
88.9%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Quinten Rollins return for 8 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1714% → 14%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
86.1%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Dawan Scott) to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+10
87.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 10 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+5
86.0%
Fred McRae run for 5 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
85.7%
Spencer McInnis run for 1 yd to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+14
85.7%
Andrew Hendrix pass intercepted Zach Edwards return for 14 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
88.1%
Gunner Kiel run for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 10 Gunner Kiel fumbled, recovered by Cincy Gunner KielSimilar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 17
OWN 10
0
88.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 17
OWN 10
+10
87.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Rod Moore for 10 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
87.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0015% → 13%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
85.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 9 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+13
84.9%
Spencer McInnis run for 13 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
84.4%
Andrew Hendrix run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-6
84.3%
Fred McRae run for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 12
OPP 34
-9
85.8%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Brad Harrah for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 21
OPP 43
0
87.3%
Christian Koch punt for 35 yds, downed at the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
86.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Ralph Abernathy for 17 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.2%
Gunner Kiel run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris Moore, broken up by Marshall TaylorSimilar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+11
85.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 54 yds , David Frazier returns for 11 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
84.2%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem Williams, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
84.6%
Dawan Scott run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+6
84.5%
Andrew Hendrix run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
83.1%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-10
83.4%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Silverberry Mouhon and Camaron Beard for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaOh 29 Andrew Hendrix fumbled, recovered by Cincy Terrell Hartsfield , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 1:2387% → 93%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
87.3%
Hosey Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+4
86.3%
Hosey Williams run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+29
93.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 29 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:488% → 9%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.5%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 15 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
91.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Jared Murphy for 8 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
91.4%
Dawan Scott run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
91.4%
Paul Moses run for no gain to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
92.4%
Dawan Scott run for 3 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
91.9%
Andrew Hendrix run for 2 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+21
92.4%
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to Dawan Scott for 21 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
91.9%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Brad Harrah for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
92.0%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-6
92.8%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Camaron Beard and Terrell Hartsfield for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 17
OPP 32
+49
91.4%
Kaleb Patterson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
92.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
92.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris Moore, broken up by Quinten RollinsSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
91.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 25 yds, downed at the MiaOh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25MISSED FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 6:3210% → 9%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
90.0%
Dawan Scott run for 9 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+5
88.7%
Spencer McInnis run for 5 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.9%
Andrew Hendrix pass incomplete to Alvonta JenkinsSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+17
89.1%
Dawan Scott run for 17 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
87.8%
Spencer McInnis run for 10 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
87.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Marcus Matthews) to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+4
88.2%
Andrew Hendrix run for 4 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+4
88.0%
Dawan Scott run for 4 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+11
87.9%
Andrew Hendrix run for 11 yds to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
86.4%
Paul Moses run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
86.4%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Brad Harrah and Jeff Luc for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-9
87.9%
Andrew Hendrix sacked by Leviticus Payne for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 13Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 0
OPP 13
+30
91.3%
Kaleb Patterson 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
93.6%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
93.5%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+16
93.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 16 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
94.3%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
94.5%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
94.5%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+9
94.4%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-1
94.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:08
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 29 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
+6.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+5.6
TD · Q3 14:06
Andrew Hendrix pass complete to David Frazier for 74 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com