Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 21 at Florida Atlantic 50

FAU
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · FAU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:13 · Dalton Parks punt for 32 yds, downed at the FlAtl 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense+26.0Score differential+16.9Blowout margin+11.5Garbage-time factor+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Pregame prior−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:35: Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 9 yds for a TD (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:16: Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 14 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +13.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:30: Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 59 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +9.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:01: Mandel Dixon run for 3 yds for a TD (Carl Salazar KICK) — TLSA win probability +11.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:18: Jaquez Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +6.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:54FAU 4th & 4 at TLSA 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:54TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:23FAU 4th & 2 at TLSA 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    50.7%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:09TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 41, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:15FAU 4th & 10 at TLSA 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−7.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:15TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:56FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 15, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−1.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 40, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:20FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 30, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:13TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 29, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:43FAU 4th & 14 at FAU 35, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:18TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 37, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:06FAU 4th & 2 at TLSA 24, up 26
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:05TLSA 4th & 16 at FAU 40, down 36
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:52FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 22, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:38TLSA 4th & 10 at FAU 42, down 29
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:24FAU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:09FAU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:35TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:16FAU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:30FAU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:01TLSA Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:18FAU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:57FAU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:52TLSA Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0645% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
45.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 12 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
45.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky WhiteheadSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
45.2%
Tony Moore run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+59
45.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 59 yds to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
45.2%
Tony Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
45.2%
Tony Moore run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
45.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky WhiteheadSimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
46.5%
Greg Joseph 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
46.3%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
46.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+14
46.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Trevon Coley) to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
46.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for no gain to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
46.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-4
46.3%
Dane Evans sacked by Trey Hendrickson for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 14
OWN 40
+1
46.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 35 yds , Henry Bussey returns for 1 yd to the FlAtl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
49.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 74 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
49.4%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Kamrin Solomon) to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-1
49.2%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+15
49.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jay Warren for 15 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-1
49.3%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
49.0%
Ryan Rickel punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2150% → 45%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
49.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 16 D'Angelo Brewer fumbled, forced by Damian Parms, recovered by TulsaSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
50.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+23
55.2%
Dane Evans pass intercepted for a TD D'Joun Smith return for 23 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
55.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Christian MilsteadSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-5
55.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Keevan Lucas) to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+5
55.1%
Dane Evans run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+11
55.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Bishop Louie for 11 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
54.9%
James Flanders run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+10
54.6%
James Flanders run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
54.7%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to FLOYD, C., PENALTY FAU pass interference (KIRK, Andrae) 3 yards to the TULSA49, 1ST DOWN TULSA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
54.6%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
54.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
54.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
55.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:4960% → 65%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
59.6%
Tony Moore run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
59.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 6 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
59.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 4 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
59.7%
Jay Warren run for no gain to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
59.6%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive offside (Trent Martin) to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
59.9%
Jaquez Johnson run for no gain to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+4
59.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
64.6%
Dalton Schomp punt for 48 yds, downed at the Tulsa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 4:1335% → 43%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
64.7%
Keevan Lucas run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
64.6%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
64.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+23
64.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
50
0
63.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Nigel Carter, broken up by D'Joun SmithSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
50
+7
63.9%
Dane Evans run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
66.7%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
66.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 33 yds to the FlAtl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
65.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
57.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 9 yds for a TD (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:2060% → 60%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
59.8%
Lucky Whitehead run for 47 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
61.6%
Jay Warren run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+6
61.6%
Jaquez Johnson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
61.6%
Lucky Whitehead run for no gain to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
61.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Alex DeleonSimilar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
60.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to William DukesSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
60.0%
Greg Joseph 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.6%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
61.3%
James Flanders run for no gain to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
62.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to James Flanders, broken up by Andrae KirkSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+32
62.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 55 yds , Henry Bussey returns for 32 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:2964% → 77%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+33
63.5%
Jay Warren run for 33 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
76.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 14 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12SF
3 plays · -20 yds · 0:3927% → 24%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
72.8%
Dane Evans sacked by Josh Ballesteros for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
73.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete, broken up by Shalom OgbondaSimilar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-19
75.9%
Dane Evans sacked by Robinson Eugene for a loss of 19 yards for a SAFETY TULSA Penalty, intentional grounding (N/A) to the Tulsa 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:0778% → 90%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
77.9%
Tony Moore run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
77.7%
Lucky Whitehead run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+7
80.4%
Jaquez Johnson run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
90.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 59 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14FUMBLE
9 plays · 71 yds · 1:337% → 7%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
92.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to James Flanders for 19 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
92.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 2 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
92.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 7 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+7
91.4%
James Flanders run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Joshua AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+18
91.5%
Zack Langer run for 18 yds to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
93.9%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete to BREWER, D., PENALTY FAU pass interference (LOZANDIER, D.) 15 yards to the FAU7, 1ST DOWN TULSA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+5
93.0%
James Flanders run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 9 James Flanders fumbled, forced by Brandin Bryant, recovered by FlAtl D'Joun Smith , return for 5 yds to the FlAtl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4591% → 92%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
90.5%
Tony Moore run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+3
90.0%
Tony Moore run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+2
92.4%
Tony Moore run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
91.9%
Dalton Schomp punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 12 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
95.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 12 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Mandel Dixon for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
94.9%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
95.0%
EVANS, D. pass complete to LUCAS, K. for 18 yards to the FAU46 (NEASMAN, Sharro), PENALTY TULSA pass interference (ATKINSON, J.) 15 yards to the TULSA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 21
0
95.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 21
+19
95.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 19 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
95.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Zach EppsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
95.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cre'von LeBlanc at the FlAtl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
95.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 6 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-1
95.4%
Lucky Whitehead run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-1
95.4%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
94.9%
Dalton Schomp punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Conner Floyd at the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
95.4%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
95.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Zach Epps, broken up by Cre'von LeBlancSimilar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
95.5%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Conner FloydSimilar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
95.5%
Dalton Parks punt for 32 yds, downed at the FlAtl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
96.5%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Derrick Alexander and Chris Hummingbird for a loss of 10 yards to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 20
OWN 29
-1
96.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 21
OWN 28
+7
96.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jeremy Gaskins for 7 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
96.1%
TEAM punt, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:372% → 14%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
97.7%
Zack Langer run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
97.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+6
97.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 6 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
97.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keyarris Garrett for 30 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.0%
Mandel Dixon run for 3 yds for a TD (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:4392% → 99%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
91.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 15 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
92.3%
Jay Warren run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
92.4%
Jay Warren run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
92.4%
Henry Bussey run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
92.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 4 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+33
92.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 33 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
92.5%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.6%
Jaquez Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 12 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
98.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Andrae KirkSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
99.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keyarris GarrettSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+35
99.0%
Dalton Parks punt for 45 yds , Lucky Whitehead returns for 35 yds to the Tulsa 43 Lucky Whitehead fumbled, forced by Jake Hanks, recovered by FlAtl Jeremy GaskinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:2399% → 100%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
98.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 11 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
98.8%
Jay Warren run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+5
98.8%
Jay Warren run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+6
98.8%
Jaquez Johnson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
99.6%
Greg Joseph 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.7%
Zack Langer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
99.7%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+13
99.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 13 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Mandel DixonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.7%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Trevon Coley return for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.7%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Derek Moise for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+10
99.7%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to DJ Juste for 10 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.7%
Jay Warren run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+6
99.7%
Jay Warren run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.8%
Greg Hankerson pass complete to Derek Moise for 9 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:050% → 0%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Nigel Carter, broken up by Cre'von LeBlancSimilar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
99.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+12
99.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Nigel Carter for 12 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.8%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
99.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Conner Floyd for 6 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
99.8%
Zack Langer run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Nigel Carter, broken up by Marc MauroSimilar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-6
99.8%
Dane Evans sacked by Haiden Nagel for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 16
OPP 40
+28
99.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Joshua Atkinson for 28 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
99.9%
James Flanders run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 3Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Zack Langer run for 3 yds for a TD (Carl Salazar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Tony Moore run for no gain to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
Jeremy Gaskins run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 4
OWN 24
-2
99.9%
Jeremy Gaskins run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Dalton Schomp punt for 20 yds, downed at the FlAtl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Joseph Calcagni pass incomplete to Nigel Carter, broken up by Raekwon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Joseph Calcagni pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Joseph Calcagni pass incomplete to Nigel CarterSimilar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 40 yds, downed at the FlAtl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
99.9%
Jeremy Gaskins run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 8Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+1
99.9%
Jeremy Gaskins run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+7
99.9%
Andrew Matyk run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
99.9%
Andrew Matyk run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+5
99.9%
Henry Bussey run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Andrew Matyk run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
99.9%
TULSA Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) to the FlAtl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:16
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 14 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q3 8:01
Mandel Dixon run for 3 yds for a TD (Carl Salazar KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q2 3:30
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 59 yds for a TD (Greg Joseph KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com