2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadSELA aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreSELA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:48 · Ryan Adams 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:21: Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 15 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +6.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:33: Lazedrick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +9.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:04: Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +8.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:27: Tanner Lee pass complete to Xavier Rush for 74 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +4.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:43: Bryan Bennett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Adams KICK) — SELA win probability +4.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SELA made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 15:00TULN 4th & 28 at SELA 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snapGo for it63.2%−0.27% to convertField goal63.3%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call63.4%average punt
- Q1 9:48SELA 4th & 5 at SELA 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it36.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.7%average punt
- Q1 4:30SELA 4th & 14 at SELA 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it32.8%−0.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.4%average punt
- Q1 0:34TULN 4th & 18 at TULN 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snapGo for it64.9%−1.511% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00SELA 4th & 11 at TULN 46, down 7Close callWent for it · 32.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.5%−0.427% to convertField goal32.3%−0.723% to makePunt32.9%average punt
- Q2 13:21SELA 4th & 8 at SELA 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snapGo for it26.3%−0.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.2%average punt
- Q2 4:48SELA 4th & 7 at TULN 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.7% before the snapGo for it12.1%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call12.3%62% to makePunt8.6%−3.7average punt
- Q2 2:31SELA 4th & 7 at TULN 26, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snapGo for it16.1%−0.436% to convertField goalTheir call16.5%64% to makePunt12.1%−4.4average punt
- Q3 15:00SELA 4th & 11 at SELA 24, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.5%−1.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%average punt
- Q3 10:50TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 43, up 25Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it97.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:42SELA 4th & 9 at SELA 8, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q3 3:59TULN 4th & 13 at SELA 17, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.619% to convertField goalTheir call98.5%80% to makePunt96.3%−2.2average punt
- Q4 12:29SELA 4th & 10 at TULN 33, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call4.3%49% to makePunt3.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 11:13SELA 4th & 2 at TULN 13, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%56% to convertField goal1.3%−0.185% to makePunt-0.7%−2.2average punt
- Q4 8:33TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 17, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it94.4%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q4 7:05TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 17, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.9%average punt
- Q4 5:12SELA 4th & 14 at SELA 44, down 15Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.3%average punt
- Q4 3:02TULN 4th & 14 at SELA 38, up 15Close callWent for it · 97.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.1%−0.219% to convertField goal97.3%38% to makePunt97.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:24SELA 4th & 2 at TULN 6, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%52% to convertField goal2.9%−<0.191% to makePunt1.6%−1.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SELA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 4:30TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.8%97% to makeGo for two65.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:21TULN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.4%97% to makeGo for two73.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:33TULN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.1%97% to makeGo for two87.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:04TULN Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:35SELA Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.3%97% to makeGo for two4.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:27TULN Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:43SELA Touchdown, down 16 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call4.6%−0.197% to makeGo for two4.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTULNDrive 1PUNT13 plays · 33 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
67.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Danté Butler for no gain to the Tulan 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
67.5%
[GUN], LEE, Tanner deep pass incomplete to SHACKLEFORD, J., PENALTY SLU offside defense (Miller, H.) 5 yards to the SLU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+22
67.5%
Sherman Badie run for 7 yds to the SELa 39 for a 1ST down SE LOUISIANA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (N/A) to the SELa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-10
67.5%
LEE, Tanner deep pass incomplete to SHACKLEFORD, J. (Raymond, D.), PENALTY TLN holding (DONNELLY, Sean) 10 yards to the SLU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 33
-9
67.5%
Tanner Lee sacked by Tyler Stoddard for a loss of 9 yards to the SELa 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 28
OPP 42
-7
67.5%
Peter Picerelli punt for 28 yds , Devante Scott returns for a loss of 7 yards to the SELa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3TD9 plays · 46 yds · 3:3767% → 71%
Q1 8:07
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+12
66.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 12 yds to the SELa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
67.5%
[GUN], HILLIARD, D. rush over right end for 5 yards to the SLU30 (Price, A.;Sutton, M.), PENALTY TLN holding (DONNELLY, Sean) 10 yards to the SLU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+25
66.8%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 25 yds to the SELa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 4PUNT9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
TULNDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5770% → 70%
SELADrive 6DOWNS4 plays · -5 yds · 0:2131% → 29%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
69.5%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Kody Sutton for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 46
-4
71.1%
Bryan Bennett run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Bryan Bennett fumbled, recovered by SELa Bryan Bennett , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7TD2 plays · 35 yds · 1:0673% → 79%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
72.5%
Sherman Badie run for 2 yds to the SELa 33 for a 1ST down SE LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal helmet contact (Isiah Corbett) to the SELa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
78.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 15 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 13:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-3
76.5%
Bryan Bennett sacked by Nico Marley for a loss of 3 yards to the SELa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD5 plays · 70 yds · 1:3979% → 89%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
79.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 9 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+45
79.7%
Sherman Badie run for 30 yds to the TULANE 31 for a 1ST down SE LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal helmet contact (Ryan Sigers) to the SELa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
79.9%
[GUN], LEE, Tanner deep pass incomplete to RUSH, Xavier, PENALTY SLU pass interference (Sigers, R.) 14 yards to the SLU2, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 10FG14 plays · 38 yds · 4:4513% → 17%
Q2 9:33
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
86.7%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Chris Malott for 5 yds to the SELa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
86.2%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Xavier Roberson for 12 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+14
86.4%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Xavier Roberson for 14 yds to the Tulan 21Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
86.1%
Bryan Bennett pass incomplete to Jeff Smiley, broken up by Darion MonroeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
85.3%
Sherman Badie run for 12 yds to the Tulan 29 Sherman Badie fumbled, forced by Denzel Thompson, recovered by SELa Micah EugeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 12MISSED FG4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0318% → 16%
TULNDrive 13TD13 plays · 74 yds · 2:2786% → 94%
Q2 2:31
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+10
85.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Devon Breaux for 10 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Justyn Shackleford, broken up by Derrick RaymondSimilar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+29
86.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 29 yds to the SELa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+27
86.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 27 yds to the SELa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 0
OPP 7
+4
85.1%
LEE, Tanner post pass incomplete to JAMES, Leondre, PENALTY SLU roughing passer (Bowen, A.) 4 yards to the SLU3, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 15PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
93.5%
Bryan Bennett run for a loss of 7 yards to the SELa 24 Bryan Bennett fumbled, recovered by SELa N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
SELADrive 17INT5 plays · 18 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
95.3%
[GUN], Bennett, B. rush over right end for no gain to the TLN49 (SCOFIELD, Sam), PENALTY SLU crackback (Williams, D.) 15 yards to the SLU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 25
OWN 36
+19
95.0%
Eugene Bethea run for 4 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, personal foul (Tanzel Smart) to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
95.3%
Bryan Bennett pass intercepted Nico Marley return for 3 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 10:50
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
97.1%
Peter Picerelli punt for 43 yds , Devante Scott returns for no gain to the SELa 43 SE LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (7 Yards) to the SELa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 19PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20MISSED FG7 plays · 24 yds · 2:4398% → 99%
SELADrive 21TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:242% → 6%
Q3 3:59
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+19
98.1%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Jeff Smiley for 19 yds to the SELa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+42
98.0%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Devante Scott for 42 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
93.8%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Jeremy Meyers for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Adams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22INT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:3395% → 96%
SELADrive 23FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:225% → 8%
TULNDrive 24TD3 plays · 76 yds · 0:5394% → 99%
SELADrive 25TD11 plays · 21 yds · 2:302% → 6%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
98.4%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Devante Scott for 8 yds to the Tulan 13Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+10
98.6%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Devante Scott for 10 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
98.2%
[GUN], Sutton, K. rush over left end for no gain to the TLN3 (THOMAS, Eric;MONROE, Darion), PENALTY TLN personal foul (MARLEY, Nico) 2 yards to the TLN1, 1ST DOWN SLU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.7%
Bryan Bennett run for no gain to the Tulan 1 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nico Marley) to the Tulan 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 8:33
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
95.8%
Peter Picerelli punt for 31 yds , Devante Scott returns for no gain to the SELa 17 SE LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal block (Eugene Bethea) to the SELa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 27INT2 plays · 15 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
95.6%
[GUN], Bennett, B. deep pass incomplete to Bossier, D., PENALTY TLN roughing passer (WILLIAMS, Daren) 15 yards to the TLN42, 1ST DOWN SLU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.5%
Bryan Bennett pass intercepted Sam Scofield return for no gain to the Tulan 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
SELADrive 29FUMBLE5 plays · -4 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
96.4%
Bryan Bennett pass incomplete to Devante Scott, broken up by Nico MarleySimilar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-4
96.5%
Bryan Bennett sacked by Ade Aruna for a loss of 4 yards to the SELa 44 Bryan Bennett fumbled, recovered by SELa Rasheed Harrell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
96.9%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Devante Scott for no gain Devante Scott fumbled, recovered by Tulan Taurean NixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 30DOWNS9 plays · 14 yds · 1:3498% → 98%
Q4 3:09
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-5
98.3%
THOMPSON, L. rush over left tackle for 2 yards to the SLU31 (Eugene, M.;Corbett, I.), PENALTY TLN illegal formation 5 yards to the SLU38, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 31DOWNS8 plays · 64 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
99.1%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Devante Scott for 33 yds to the TULANE 37 for a 1ST down SE LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal block (Xavier Roberson) to the SELa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+22
99.2%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Jeff Smiley for 22 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
98.9%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Jeff Smiley for 16 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
98.8%
Bryan Bennett pass complete to Jeff Smiley for 8 yds to the Tulan 6Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
98.9%
Bryan Bennett pass incomplete to Chris Malott, broken up by Sam ScofieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 32Uncategorized1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:33
Lazedrick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q2 0:04
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q2 13:21
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 15 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+6.2