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ECU

East Carolina 28 at Virginia Tech 21

VT
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-29VT 4.3%Shane Carden run for 1 yd for a TD,(Warren Harvey KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 21 · Q4 0:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:16 · Shane Carden run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 206Home team on offense−38.4Pregame prior+0.1Score differential−4.2Garbage-time factor−14.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:47: Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 21 yds for a TD EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference declined, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +10.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:31: Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 15 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +25.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:20: Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 18 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +46.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:04: VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the VTech 29 — ECU win probability +10.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:16: Shane Carden run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK) — ECU win probability +29.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ECU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:28VT 4th & 5 at VT 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:28VT 4th & 9 at VT 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:53ECU 4th & 19 at ECU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:24VT 4th & 10 at VT 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:47VT 4th & 17 at VT 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:31ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:43VT 4th & 10 at VT 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:24ECU 4th & 2 at VT 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−1.0
    87% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:06ECU 4th & 9 at VT 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:52VT 4th & 10 at ECU 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:23ECU 4th & 21 at ECU 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−2.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:26VT 4th & 17 at ECU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:06ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−3.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:34VT 4th & 5 at VT 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:22ECU 4th & 25 at ECU 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−5.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:41ECU 4th & 16 at VT 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:57ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:30VT 4th & 13 at ECU 43, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−1.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:17ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:32ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:44ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:47VT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:31VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%−2.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:20VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−3.9
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:16ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3322% → 23%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
78.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+35
78.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 35 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
78.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
78.0%
Shane Carden run for 8 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+22
77.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 22 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
77.7%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the VTech 4Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Bryce Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4977% → 77%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.1%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
76.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
76.6%
A.J. Hughes punt for 40 yds, downed at the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 0:5623% → 25%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
76.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+47
76.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 47 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
76.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 8 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
75.8%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+15
74.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 15 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0475% → 73%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.9%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
74.6%
Deon Newsome run for 6 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-6
74.3%
Michael Brewer sacked by Montese Overton and Brandon Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-2
72.9%
A.J. Hughes punt for 43 yds , Justin Hardy returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3528% → 30%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
72.5%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+21
72.5%
Breon Allen run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
50
-4
72.0%
Shane Carden sacked by Deon Clarke for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-3
71.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Breon Allen for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 17
OWN 43
-2
70.7%
Cory Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 19
OWN 41
0
70.0%
Worth Gregory punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2970% → 69%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
70.3%
Michael Brewer run for no gain to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
69.6%
Shai McKenzie run for no gain to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
69.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 10
OWN 13
0
68.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 1:4032% → 38%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
67.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 11 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
67.5%
Cory Hunter run for 7 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+15
66.9%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Hardy, Justin, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Fuller, Kendall) 15 yards to the VATECH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
66.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
66.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+23
66.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 23 yds to the VTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Bryce WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 0
OPP 2
0
65.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) to the VTech 2Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.9%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q1 2:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 2 yds for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:5762% → 56%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Joshua Stanford for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
60.5%
Marshawn Williams run for 10 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
59.9%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-5
57.7%
Michael Brewer sacked by Fred Presley for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 17
OWN 33
0
56.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
55.7%
A.J. Hughes punt for 53 yds, downed at the ECaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:1645% → 46%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
54.9%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+11
54.8%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 11 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.6%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
53.9%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
54.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (4 Yards) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
54.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
54.5%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
54.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 44 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 25 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:4854% → 48%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
53.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
53.0%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+9
51.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Donovan Riley for 9 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
50.5%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
50.2%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
49.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Marshawn Williams for no gain to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
48.4%
A.J. Hughes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:1952% → 54%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+36
47.6%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 36 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
45.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Justin Hardy for 18 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
45.5%
Breon Allen run for 6 yds to the VTech 13 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 23Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 14
OPP 23
0
45.3%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 14
OPP 23
0
45.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 14
OPP 23
+12
45.5%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 12 yds to the VTech 11Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 2
OPP 11
0
45.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:3846% → 44%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
46.2%
Shai McKenzie run for 3 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+1
44.4%
Shai McKenzie run for 1 yd to the VTech 15Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+4
43.6%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted Josh Hawkins return for 4 yds to the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
41.6%
Shane Carden run for 23 yds to the VTech 1 Shane Carden fumbled, recovered by VTech Kendall FullerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4043% → 42%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
43.2%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the VTech 1Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+17
41.8%
Michael Brewer pass intercepted Josh Hawkins return for 7 yds to the VTech 8 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5060% → 58%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
40.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
40.4%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
40.6%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
41.7%
Warren Harvey 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:1441% → 41%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
41.0%
Marshawn Williams run for 5 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+40
40.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 40 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
42.7%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
42.4%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
41.6%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+52
40.7%
Joey Slye 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:2862% → 63%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.0%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
37.3%
Breon Allen run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-12
37.2%
Shane Carden sacked by Ken Ekanem and Dadi Nicolas for a loss of 12 yards to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 21
OWN 24
+11
37.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 60 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 11 yds to the VTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:3637% → 47%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
36.7%
Shai McKenzie run for 3 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
36.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Deon Newsome for 4 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+6
35.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 6 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
35.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
50
+16
35.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Sam Rogers for 16 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
36.6%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Joshua StanfordSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
36.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 13 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
46.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 21 yds for a TD EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference declined, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19END OF HALF
5 plays · 68 yds · 0:4558% → 62%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.6%
Shane Carden run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+24
40.7%
Breon Allen run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
50
+43
38.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 43 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:1942% → 36%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
41.8%
Deon Newsome run for 8 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+3
42.5%
Marshawn Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
41.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Deon Newsome for no gain to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+21
40.5%
Marshawn Williams run for 6 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Josh Hawkins) to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
42.1%
Michael Brewer run for 1 yd to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+13
41.0%
Marshawn Williams run for 13 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-13
40.4%
Michael Brewer sacked by Johnathon White and Terry Williams for a loss of 13 yards to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 23
OWN 48
+6
38.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Ryan Malleck for 6 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 17
OPP 46
0
37.1%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Joshua StanfordSimilar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 17
OPP 46
0
36.1%
A.J. Hughes punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Justin Hardy at the ECaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2066% → 69%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
34.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Davon GraysonSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+19
34.0%
Shane Carden pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 19 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
31.1%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
31.0%
Breon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
31.2%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Cam WorthySimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+27
31.5%
Worth Gregory punt for 42 yds EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the VTech 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3235% → 32%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
35.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for no gain to the VTech 42Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
34.1%
Shai McKenzie run for 5 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
32.7%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Joshua StanfordSimilar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
32.1%
A.J. Hughes punt for 29 yds, downed at the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 2:1272% → 74%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
28.1%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-10
27.4%
Scott, Anthony rush for 14 yards to the EASTCRLINA42, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 16
OWN 18
-7
26.1%
Shane Carden sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 11Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 23
OWN 11
-2
26.2%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 9Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 25
OWN 9
+1
25.6%
Worth Gregory punt for 53 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 1 yd to the VTech 10 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the VTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24DOWNS
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:5228% → 22%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
27.8%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
25.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+13
24.5%
Brewer, Michael pass incomplete to Ford, Isaiah, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference 13 yards to the VATECH39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
26.7%
Marshawn Williams run for 9 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
27.7%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+21
26.9%
Marshawn Williams run for 21 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
27.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 5 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+2
27.5%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+5
25.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 5 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
25.7%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 6 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
25.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 3 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
23.8%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
24.2%
Isaiah Ford run for 5 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
23.5%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 5Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
22.1%
Michael Brewer run for 3 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT
12 plays · 55 yds · 2:1087% → 89%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
13.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+7
13.4%
Shane Carden pass complete to Trevon Brown for 7 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
12.7%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Justin HardySimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
12.5%
Shane Carden pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+39
12.9%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 39 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
10.4%
Carden, Shane pass incomplete to Hardy, Justin, PENALTY VATECH holding (Bonner, Detrick) 10 yards to the VATECH37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
10.4%
Shane Carden run for 4 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
9.4%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
9.9%
Shane Carden pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 6
OPP 33
-5
11.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 11
OPP 38
-5
11.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
11.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:1014% → 35%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
14.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Deon Newsome for 9 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
13.6%
Shai McKenzie run for 5 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
13.0%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 7 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+1
12.0%
Shai McKenzie run for 1 yd to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
10.5%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 3 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
10.0%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+17
9.6%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 17 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
10.2%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
9.3%
Brewer, Michael pass incomplete to Ford, Isaiah, PENALTY EASTCRLINA pass interference (Hawkins, Josh) 11 yards to the EASTCRLINA27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
10.4%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
9.9%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Willie ByrnSimilar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+12
9.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 12 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
34.8%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 15 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3478% → 82%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
22.0%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-7
19.3%
Shane Carden sacked by Deon Clarke for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+3
20.2%
Shane Carden run for 3 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 9
OWN 18
+5
18.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 37 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2726% → 20%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
50
+10
26.3%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 10 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
28.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Willie Byrn for 7 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
30.3%
Michael Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
28.3%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Willie ByrnSimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 3
OPP 33
-10
24.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Laurence Gibson) to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
19.8%
A.J. Hughes punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:1386% → 86%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
13.6%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
12.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+1
12.4%
Shane Carden run for 1 yd to the ECaro 16Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+2
13.6%
Shane Carden run for 2 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 0:5520% → 66%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
20.2%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
16.8%
Michael Brewer pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+17
15.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 17 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
18.5%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+7
20.2%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
66.4%
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 18 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 31TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:0452% → 96%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+31
48.3%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 31 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
37.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+28
36.7%
Shane Carden pass complete to Cam Worthy for 28 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
33.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, 12 Men on the Field ( Yards) to the VTech 1Similar
Q4 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.3%
Shane Carden run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:20
Michael Brewer pass complete to Cam Phillips for 18 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+46.2
TD · Q4 0:16
Shane Carden run for 1 yd for a TD, (Warren Harvey KICK)
-29
TD · Q4 6:31
Michael Brewer pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 15 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+25.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com