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UCF

UCF 10 at Missouri 38

MIZ
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:50 · Christian Brinser punt for 36 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 7 yds to the UCF 46 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (15 Yards) to the UCF 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior+12.7Home team on offense+3.5Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:11: Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 11 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +1.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:17: Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for 2 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +4.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:12: Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 10 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +5.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:43: Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 21 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +9.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:32: Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 22 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK) — MIZ win probability +8.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:57UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:30UCF 4th & 2 at MIZ 2, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−2.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:17UCF 4th & 2 at MIZ 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:48UCF 4th & 11 at MIZ 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:50MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:28UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:25MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:06UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 29, down 11
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:48UCF 4th & 3 at MIZ 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:13MIZ 4th & 5 at UCF 8, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:46MIZ 4th & 2 at UCF 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:11MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:17UCF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:12MIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:43MIZ Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:32MIZ Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:13MIZ Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:4324% → 25%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
75.7%
Breshad Perriman run for no gain to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-10
75.6%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+5
75.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 5 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 15
OWN 16
0
75.4%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
75.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:1976% → 77%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
75.5%
MISSOURI Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 20
50
+1
75.3%
Marcus Murphy run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+15
75.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 15 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+12
75.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 12 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
75.4%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
75.3%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+9
75.1%
Maty Mauk run for 9 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
76.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 11 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3FG
16 plays · 73 yds · 6:2824% → 25%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.9%
Rannell Hall run for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
75.8%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
75.9%
Josh Reese run for 7 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+20
75.7%
Justin Holman run for 20 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
75.5%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-6
75.3%
Rannell Hall run for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 14
OPP 41
-5
76.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Torrian Wilson) to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 19
OPP 46
+27
76.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 27 yds to the Misso 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
75.0%
William Stanback run for 4 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+11
75.0%
William Stanback run for 11 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
75.0%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the Misso 3Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
74.9%
William Stanback run for 1 yd to the Misso 2Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
75.5%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Rannell HallSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
74.7%
Shawn Moffitt 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:5075% → 75%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the Misso 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MissoSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+31
74.5%
Maty Mauk pass intercepted Jacoby Glenn return for 31 yds to the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
10 plays · 31 yds · 5:1427% → 31%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
73.3%
Justin Holman run for 1 yd to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+3
73.2%
Justin Holman run for 3 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+6
73.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 6 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-7
72.9%
William Stanback run for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 17
OPP 28
+5
73.3%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+18
73.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 18 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.7%
William Stanback run for no gain to the Misso 5Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.4%
William Stanback run for no gain to the Misso 5Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
73.0%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the Misso 2Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for 2 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5270% → 76%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
69.6%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
68.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Sean Culkin for 18 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
70.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 8 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
71.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for no gain to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
70.3%
Maty Mauk run for 3 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
70.5%
Russell Hansbrough run for 7 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
71.2%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
70.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 5 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
71.0%
Maty Mauk run for 9 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
70.1%
Marcus Murphy run for 3 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
70.0%
Maty Mauk run for 6 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
69.8%
Russell Hansbrough run for 2 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
75.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 10 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7MISSED FG
16 plays · 36 yds · 5:0427% → 25%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
73.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jordan Akins for 6 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
72.2%
Justin Holman run for 5 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
72.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 5
50
+11
71.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 11 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
71.5%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-6
71.4%
Justin Holman sacked by Markus Golden and Lucas Vincent for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+16
73.3%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 16 yds to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
70.2%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+10
71.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 10 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
69.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-5
70.7%
UCF Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+2
74.4%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+47
75.5%
Shawn Moffitt 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
74.3%
Maty Mauk sacked by Thomas Niles for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:0073% → 71%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
72.5%
Maty Mauk run for 12 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
73.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 2 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
73.8%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
72.2%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+7
71.0%
Christian Brinser punt for 36 yds , J.J. Worton returns for 7 yds to the UCF 46 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (15 Yards) to the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:0228% → 26%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
71.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 9 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+5
70.3%
William Stanback run for 5 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
70.9%
Rannell Hall run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+6
70.6%
Justin Holman run for 6 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+6
69.2%
William Stanback run for 6 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
70.4%
William Stanback run for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
69.8%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-3
71.2%
Justin Holman sacked by Shane Ray for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
73.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:0374% → 74%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.4%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
74.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
73.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 12 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+13
74.1%
Mauk, Maty pass incomplete to White, Darius, PENALTY UCF pass interference 13 yards to the MISSOURI44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.9%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
75.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 4 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
75.2%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
73.6%
Christian Brinser punt for 41 yds, fair catch by J.J. Worton at the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 3:3627% → 32%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
72.6%
Justin Holman run for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+12
72.6%
Justin Holman run for 12 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
72.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
71.3%
William Stanback run for no gain to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+10
72.2%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 10 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
69.4%
Josh Reese run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
68.2%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Josh Augusta return for no gain to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:4777% → 88%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
77.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 17 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
78.0%
Russell Hansbrough run for 5 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
78.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Russell Hansbrough for 2 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+21
87.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 21 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5413% → 12%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
86.7%
Justin Holman sacked by Markus Golden for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+9
87.1%
Rannell Hall run for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
86.6%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
88.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Murphy at the Misso 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:2988% → 97%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
88.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 9 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+11
89.2%
Russell Hansbrough run for 11 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.1%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the Misso 49Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
89.3%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Darius White for 6 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+7
89.1%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 7 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
89.7%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Marcus MurphySimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
89.7%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 7 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+9
89.4%
Marcus Murphy run for 9 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
97.4%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 22 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16FUMBLE
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:393% → 3%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.6%
Holman, Justin pass incomplete to Worton, J.J., PENALTY MISSOURI roughing passer 15 yards to the UCF40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
96.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 13 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
96.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 8 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+7
96.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for 7 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
96.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 7 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
96.0%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
96.4%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 3
OPP 25
-12
96.6%
Justin Holman sacked by Shane Ray for a loss of 12 yards to the Misso 37 Justin Holman fumbled, recovered by Misso Michael Scherer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:1598% → 99%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.6%
Marcus Murphy run for 5 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+29
97.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 29 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.0%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
98.2%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+16
98.2%
Marcus Murphy run for 16 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
98.3%
Marcus Murphy run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
98.5%
Marcus Murphy run for no gain to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+6
98.8%
Marcus Murphy run for 6 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
99.4%
Andrew Baggett 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18INT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:081% → 0%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.4%
Justin Holman pass complete to Rannell Hall for 16 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
99.4%
Justin Holman sacked by Lucas Vincent for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+4
99.5%
Justin Holman pass complete to William Stanback for 4 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+32
99.6%
Justin Holman pass intercepted Braylon Webb return for 32 yds to the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.6%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.6%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+3
99.7%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 2
OPP 14
0
99.7%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
99.8%
Holman, Justin pass incomplete, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference 7 yards to the UCF21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
99.8%
Holman, Justin pass incomplete, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference 15 yards to the UCF36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
99.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Jackie Williams for 17 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 7 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+10
99.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 10 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.8%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+12
99.8%
Justin Holman run for 12 yds to the Misso 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-60
100.0%
Duron Singleton 60 Yd Fumble Return (Andrew Baggett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
100.0%
William Stanback run for 3 yds to the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:43
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 21 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q4 11:32
Maty Mauk pass complete to Bud Sasser for 22 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
+8
TD · Q2 6:12
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jimmie Hunt for 10 yds for a TD, (Andrew Baggett KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com