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TOL

Toledo 34 at Cincinnati 58

CIN
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 12, 2014 · Paul Brown Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:44 · Jeremiah Detmer 28 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense+3.2Pregame prior+24.4Score differential+1.6Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:37: Tion Green run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +4.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:56: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 8 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +3.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:38: Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK) — TOL win probability +7.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:48: Jeremiah Detmer 36 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +5.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:59: Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 18 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:43TOL 4th & 8 at CIN 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:44TOL 4th & 7 at CIN 11, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:05TOL 4th & 5 at CIN 33, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:03CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 49, up 27
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:44CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 15, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:40TOL 4th & 2 at CIN 15, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.6
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:37CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 25, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:33TOL 4th & 4 at CIN 6, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.7%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:22CIN 4th & 9 at TOL 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:48TOL 4th & 5 at CIN 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−7.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:06TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 20, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:57CIN 4th & 10 at TOL 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:14CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:37CIN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56CIN Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:14CIN Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:55TOL Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:17CIN Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:13TOL Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:19TOL Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:38TOL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:59CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:36CIN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 0:2279% → 80%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+52
79.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 52 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
79.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
79.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:2721% → 21%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
79.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+5
79.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
79.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+16
79.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 16 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
79.2%
Logan Woodside run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
79.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
79.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 8
OPP 39
+20
79.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 14 TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:5079% → 81%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
79.4%
Hosey Williams run for 9 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
79.5%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
79.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 6 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+21
79.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 21 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
79.8%
Hosey Williams run for 15 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
79.9%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+4
79.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Ralph Abernathy for 4 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+22
81.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 22 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:4419% → 18%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
80.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
80.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 1 yd to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+7
80.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 7 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+7
80.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 7 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
80.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
80.8%
Marc Remy run for 17 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
80.7%
Marc Remy run for 22 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
80.3%
Marc Remy run for 1 yd to the Cincy 13Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
80.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+2
80.8%
Logan Woodside run for 2 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
82.0%
Jeremiah Detmer 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0383% → 88%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
82.8%
Tion Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+13
82.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 13 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
83.0%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+14
83.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 14 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
83.9%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 9
50
+46
83.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 46 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.3%
Tion Green run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0489% → 92%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
88.6%
Gunner Kiel run for 6 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
92.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 8 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:447% → 6%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
93.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
93.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
93.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 12 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
93.7%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+8
93.9%
Marc Remy run for 8 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
94.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+2
94.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 2 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
94.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:4395% → 94%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
95.1%
Gunner Kiel run for 24 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+41
95.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 41 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.8%
Rod Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:064% → 5%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
95.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 19 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
96.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 7 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+21
95.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 21 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
96.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
96.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Zach YouseySimilar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+12
96.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 12 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
96.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 6 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+13
96.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 4:1797% → 98%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
96.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 5 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+18
96.8%
Hosey Williams run for 18 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
97.1%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+12
97.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 12 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
97.3%
Hosey Williams run for 8 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+7
97.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 7 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
97.6%
Jarred Evans run for 3 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
97.6%
Jarred Evans run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+15
97.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chris Moore for 15 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
97.8%
Hosey Williams run for 2 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
98.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 11 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:572% → 2%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+37
98.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 37 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
98.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 38 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:5598% → 98%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
98.1%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Tion Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+5
98.1%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Max Morrison for 5 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+12
98.2%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Mekale McKay for 12 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.3%
Munchie Legaux run for 5 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
98.6%
Munchie Legaux pass complete to Johnny Holton for 3 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
98.5%
Munchie Legaux pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
98.4%
Sam Geraci punt for 48 yds, downed at the Toled 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
98.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:353% → 6%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
96.7%
Marc Remy run for 8 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
95.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
95.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 2 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
96.2%
Logan Woodside sacked by Terrell Hartsfield for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+5
97.4%
Marc Remy run for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+54
94.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 54 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3196% → 96%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
96.2%
Ralph Abernathy run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+8
96.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 8 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-8
96.1%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Allen Covington for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+21
96.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 44 yds , Corey Jones returns for 21 yds to the Cincy 38 CINCINNATI Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mike Tyson) to the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:426% → 12%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
94.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
94.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
95.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+2
95.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 2 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
95.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
95.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Justin OlackSimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
88.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4890% → 90%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
90.2%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
90.2%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
90.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Max MorrisonSimilar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:5712% → 15%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
88.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+29
88.1%
Corey Jones run for 29 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
87.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
87.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 1 yd to the Cincy 6Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
88.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
85.3%
Jeremiah Detmer 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:5687% → 86%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
87.4%
Kiel, Gunner pass incomplete to McKay, Mekale, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Haynes, Juwan) 15 yards to the TOLEDO46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
87.8%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
87.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
87.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Chris MooreSimilar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
86.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 yds, downed at the Toled 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FG
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:2613% → 19%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
87.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+10
86.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+42
86.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Justin Olack for 42 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
84.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
83.9%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+6
85.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Zach Rogers for 6 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
85.2%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
85.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 2 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
86.2%
Dwight Macon pass incomplete to Logan WoodsideSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
80.8%
Jeremiah Detmer 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3987% → 96%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.3%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
87.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 9 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 3 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+7
88.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 7 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
89.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Max Morrison for 15 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
89.6%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+18
89.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mekale McKay for 18 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
96.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 18 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:296% → 5%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
94.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
94.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-10
94.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jeff Myers) to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+7
94.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 7 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+11
95.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 35 yds , Shaq Washington returns for 11 yds to the Toled 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23FG
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:0196% → 97%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
96.4%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+24
96.4%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Johnny Holton for 24 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
96.5%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
96.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Alex ChisumSimilar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
96.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
97.0%
Andrew Gantz 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24MISSED FG
13 plays · 37 yds · 4:123% → 2%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
96.6%
Marc Remy run for 8 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
96.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 3 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
96.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Marc Remy for 11 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
96.7%
Corey Jones run for 7 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+15
96.6%
Woodside, Logan pass incomplete to Russell, Alonzo, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Wilder, Howard) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
96.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Dwight Macon for 5 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+10
96.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 10 yds to the Cincy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
96.7%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Zach RogersSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 0
OPP 6
-15
96.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Alonzo Russell) to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 0
OPP 21
-10
97.3%
Logan Woodside sacked by Terrell Hartsfield and Clemente Casseus for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 0
OPP 31
+48
97.8%
Jeremiah Detmer 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:4498% → 100%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
98.3%
Hosey Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
98.3%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
98.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
98.6%
Gunner Kiel run for 2 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.6%
Hosey Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
98.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Shaq WashingtonSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+33
98.8%
Hosey Williams run for 33 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.9%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Mekale McKaySimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.7%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Shaq Washington for 22 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.6%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
99.6%
Michael Julian pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 1 yd to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-7
99.6%
Michael Julian sacked by Chris Burton for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:38
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Jeremiah Detmer KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q4 11:59
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Alex Chisum for 18 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
+6.4
FG · Q4 14:48
Jeremiah Detmer 36 yd FG GOOD
-5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com