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HOU

Houston 25 at BYU 33

BYU
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 11, 2014 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:14 · Scott Arellano punt for 33 yds, downed at the Houst 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior+29.4Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:57: Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 6 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +5.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:17: John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard MISSED) — HOU win probability +8.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:00: John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 45 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard MISSED) — HOU win probability +8.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:47: Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +7.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:09: John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +8.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 14:06HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14BYU 4th & 9 at HOU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:07HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 36, down 9
    Close callPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:11HOU 4th & 4 at BYU 21, down 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.8%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:45BYU 4th & 4 at HOU 38, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.8%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:12HOU 4th & 11 at BYU 11, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:14BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 46, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.4%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:22HOU 4th & 4 at BYU 39, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−1.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:13BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:06HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 27, down 8
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:51BYU 4th & 8 at HOU 8, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−9.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:37HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:18HOU 4th & 2 at BYU 19, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%−0.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−3.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:49BYU 4th & 12 at HOU 40, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:24HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 12, down 8
    Close callPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HOU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 9:12BYU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:24BYU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:57BYU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:47BYU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:09HOU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4319% → 19%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
81.0%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
81.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
80.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+2
80.9%
Dylan Seibert punt for 45 yds , Mitchell Juergens returns for 2 yds to the BYU 27 BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 46 yds · 2:4881% → 80%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
80.8%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
80.8%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+10
80.7%
Hill, Taysom pass incomplete, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Stewart, Trevon) 10 yards to the BYU27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
80.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 10 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
80.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Devin Mahina for 16 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
80.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
80.7%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jordan LeslieSimilar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+6
80.6%
Hill, Taysom pass incomplete to Leslie, Jordan, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Wilson, Brandon) 6 yards to the HOUSTON38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
80.6%
Taysom Hill run for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
80.5%
Taysom Hill run for 4 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-5
80.5%
Hill, Taysom pass complete to Blackmon, Devon for 32 yards to the HOUSTON0, PENALTY BYU illegal formation 5 yards to the HOUSTON37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
80.3%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
80.1%
Scott Arellano punt for 33 yds, downed at the Houst 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3SF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3320% → 20%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
80.0%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the Houst 4Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 4
-4
80.2%
Ryan Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:1780% → 81%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.2%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
80.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+35
80.1%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 35 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
80.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Paul Lasike for 3 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
81.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5319% → 19%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
80.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 4 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+7
80.9%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
80.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
80.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+6
81.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 6 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
80.9%
Dylan Seibert punt for 34 yds, downed at the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:3681% → 85%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
80.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 16 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
81.3%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
81.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+14
81.0%
Taysom Hill run for 14 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
81.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 7 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+19
81.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 19 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
81.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 6 yds to the Houst 5Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
84.8%
Taysom Hill run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7MISSED FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 4:0917% → 17%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
83.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 8 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+1
82.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 1 yd to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+5
82.8%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
82.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 12 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
82.7%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+14
82.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 14 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+20
82.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 20 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
82.0%
Ryan Jackson run for 3 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
82.0%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+3
82.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 3 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
82.9%
Kyle Bullard 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM Teu Kautai return for 1 yd to the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
16 plays · 87 yds · 5:0885% → 93%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
85.3%
Taysom Hill run for 2 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+4
85.7%
Adam Hine run for 4 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+5
85.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 5 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
85.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 4 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+5
85.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Adam Hine for 5 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+23
85.9%
Taysom Hill run for 23 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
86.6%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
86.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 6 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
86.5%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+5
86.1%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 5 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
86.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Kurt Henderson for 11 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
86.9%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+13
86.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 13 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
87.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
87.5%
Adam Hine run for 3 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
92.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 6 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FG
19 plays · 82 yds · 5:358% → 7%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
92.2%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
92.3%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+15
92.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 15 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
92.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 16 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
91.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 9 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
91.5%
Kenneth Farrow run for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
92.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 5 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
92.1%
John O'Korn run for 1 yd to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
92.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+27
92.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 12 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Alani Fua) to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
92.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 7 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
92.2%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+6
92.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 6 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 0
OPP 7
-5
91.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Alex Cooper) to the BYU 12Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
92.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
93.4%
John O'Korn run for 3 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q2 3:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
93.1%
Kyle Bullard 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.5%
Taysom Hill pass intercepted Joey Mbu return for no gain to the BYU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:308% → 16%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+28
92.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 28 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-15
92.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Markeith Ambles) to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 0
OPP 16
0
92.2%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 0
OPP 16
0
92.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 0
OPP 16
+8
92.5%
John O'Korn run for no gain to the BYU 16 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
92.5%
John O'Korn run for 1 yd to the BYU 7Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
84.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 59 yds · 0:5788% → 88%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
87.5%
Taysom Hill run for 9 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+7
87.7%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
87.6%
Taysom Hill run for 5 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
87.9%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Paul LasikeSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+38
87.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 38 yds Mitchell Juergens fumbled, forced by Adrian McDonald, recovered by Houst Adrian McDonald , return for 28 yds to the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
79.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 45 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3683% → 83%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
83.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 7 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
83.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
83.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
84.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Trey Dye for 2 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
83.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Trey Dye for 2 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-1
82.9%
Scott Arellano run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4320% → 19%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
79.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 6 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
79.4%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
80.0%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
81.0%
Logan Piper punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Juergens at the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0083% → 82%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
82.8%
Taysom Hill run for 3 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+8
82.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 8 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
83.1%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jordan Leslie BYU Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Brock Stringham) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
82.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-3
82.5%
Taysom Hill sacked by Derrick Mathews for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 27Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+54
81.6%
Scott Arellano punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the HOUSTON 19 HOUSTON Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Brandon Wilson) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5418% → 17%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
82.1%
John O'Korn run for 2 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-3
82.2%
John O'Korn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+9
83.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 9 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 2
OWN 27
-2
83.2%
Logan Piper punt for 47 yds , Devon Blackmon returns for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 25 HOUSTON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Adrian McDonald) to the BYU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FG
18 plays · 53 yds · 6:0885% → 88%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
84.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
85.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+11
85.7%
Taysom Hill run for 11 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
86.8%
BYU Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Tejan Koroma) to the Houst 49Similar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+3
86.1%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 3 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+11
87.5%
Taysom Hill run for 11 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
87.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
88.1%
Adam Hine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-15
88.0%
Hill, Taysom pass complete to Hine, Adam for 16 yards to the HOUSTON15, PENALTY BYU personal foul (Koroma, Tejan) 15 yards to the HOUSTON46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 26
OPP 46
+23
87.4%
Taysom Hill run for 8 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Trevor Harris) to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
88.4%
Taysom Hill run for 6 yds to the Houst 17 Taysom Hill fumbled, forced by Steven Taylor, recovered by BYU Ului LapuahoSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+2
88.6%
Paul Lasike run for 2 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+5
87.9%
Paul Lasike run for 5 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
88.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 7 yds to the Houst 3Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-10
89.7%
Williams, Jamaal rush for 1 yard to the HOUSTON2, PENALTY BYU holding (Johnson, Kyle) 10 yards to the HOUSTON13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
88.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Paul Lasike for 5 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
88.3%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitch MathewsSimilar
Q3 0:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
87.9%
Trevor Samson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0112% → 11%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.6%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
87.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 2 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
88.5%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:37
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+16
89.1%
Dylan Seibert punt for 44 yds , Devon Blackmon returns for 16 yds to the BYU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:3390% → 98%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
89.9%
Taysom Hill run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 4
50
+15
90.1%
Taysom Hill run for 15 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
90.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+7
90.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 7 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
90.3%
Taysom Hill sacked by Tyus Bowser for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+24
90.2%
Taysom Hill run for 24 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
90.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:183% → 12%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
96.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 8 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+11
96.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 11 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
96.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 22 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
96.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 9 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
96.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
96.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 3 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
88.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4692% → 92%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
92.1%
Taysom Hill sacked by Joey Mbu for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
91.6%
Taysom Hill pass intercepted Trevon Stewart return for no gain to the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5213% → 15%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
87.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Ryan JacksonSimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
87.8%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+8
89.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 8 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+36
84.8%
Kyle Bullard 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:2190% → 94%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
90.2%
Paul Lasike run for 14 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
91.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jamaal Williams for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 1
50
+2
93.4%
Taysom Hill run for 2 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
93.5%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+3
94.0%
Taysom Hill run for 3 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
94.1%
Taysom Hill sacked by Matthew Adams for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+1
93.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 1 yd to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+9
93.8%
Taysom Hill run for 9 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 7
OPP 35
-5
94.2%
BYU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
94.1%
Scott Arellano punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2110% → 8%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
89.9%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
90.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
90.8%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
92.2%
Dylan Seibert punt for 55 yds, downed at the BYU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:1995% → 97%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
94.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
95.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 6 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
96.7%
Taysom Hill run for 2 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
97.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+11
97.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 11 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:17
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard MISSED)
-8.4
TD · Q4 9:09
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 15 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q2 0:00
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 45 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard MISSED)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com