2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Yulman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Tim Byerly run for 2 yds to the Tulan 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:10: Quayshawn Nealy 10 Yd Interception Return (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +5.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 9:38: Tanner Lee pass complete to Xavier Rush for 61 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK) — TULN win probability +8.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:51: Tony Zenon run for 19 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +11.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:14: Tony Zenon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +11.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:05: Tim Byerly run for 1 yd for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +6.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 0:47TULN 4th & 7 at GT 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snapGo for it37.3%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call37.6%89% to makePunt34.5%−3.0average punt
- Q2 11:48GT 4th & 12 at TULN 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snapGo for it58.3%−0.623% to convertField goal58.1%−0.825% to makePuntTheir call58.9%average punt
- Q2 5:30GT 4th & 8 at TULN 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snapGo for it51.9%−0.632% to convertField goalTheir call52.5%81% to makePunt46.6%−5.9average punt
- Q2 0:21TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 44, tiedClose callWent for it · 41.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.8%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt40.8%average punt
- Q3 2:07TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 46, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snapGo for it18.9%−1.032% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.9%average punt
- Q4 10:30TULN 4th & 20 at GT 47, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it12.3%−2.310% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q4 6:25TULN 4th & 6 at GT 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.8%39% to convertField goal4.8%−<0.162% to makePunt3.1%−1.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 13:32TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.0%97% to makeGo for two27.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:29GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.2%97% to makeGo for two70.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:27TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.4%97% to makeGo for two35.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:10GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.8%97% to makeGo for two63.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:38TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.9%97% to makeGo for two41.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:51GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.3%97% to makeGo for two58.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:14GT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.3%97% to makeGo for two78.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:05GT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1FUMBLE2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
21.2%
Justin Thomas sacked by Eric Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 8 Justin Thomas fumbled, forced by Eric Thomas, recovered by Tulan Royce LaFrance , return for 0 yards , return for 10 yds to the GTech 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2TD5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2021% → 22%
GTDrive 3TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4978% → 76%
Q1 10:09
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
24.3%
TULANE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Corey Redwine) to the Tulan 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3325% → 33%
Q1 6:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
25.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 7 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
25.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 11 yds to the Tulan 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
26.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Charles Jones for 3 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-1
26.9%
Leondre James run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 43 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (5 Yards) to the Tulan 48Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+20
27.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 20 yds to the GTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-6
31.1%
Tony Zenon run for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 12 Tony Zenon fumbled, forced by Matthew Bailey, recovered by Tulan Nico MarleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6MISSED FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0033% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 35 yds · 3:3267% → 63%
Q2 11:48
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
36.7%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Darion Monroe at the Tulan 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8INT TD2 plays · -5 yds · 0:3037% → 31%
TULNDrive 9TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2231% → 40%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
40.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Xavier Rush for 61 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10MISSED FG9 plays · 68 yds · 3:3461% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11INT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:0444% → 44%
GTDrive 12TD3 plays · 30 yds · 0:4959% → 71%
Q2 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+4
40.8%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Charles Perkins for 4 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13DOWNS10 plays · 19 yds · 1:5836% → 38%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.4%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 6 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
35.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 6 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-3
39.5%
Tanner Lee sacked by KeShun Freeman for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 37Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+7
36.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Sherman Badie for 7 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14END OF HALF5 plays · 16 yds · 0:1370% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15INT9 plays · 36 yds · 3:2932% → 37%
Q3 14:04
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
31.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Teddy Veal for 11 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
33.8%
Tanner Lee sacked by Tyler Stargel for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 31Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+19
32.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+10
36.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Xavier Rush for 10 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
37.0%
Tanner Lee pass intercepted Lawrence Austin return for no gain to the GTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16TD12 plays · 76 yds · 6:2667% → 83%
TULNDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:0019% → 18%
GTDrive 18INT5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5681% → 83%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
16.7%
Justin Thomas pass intercepted Parry Nickerson return for no gain to the Tulan 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19PUNT13 plays · 39 yds · 4:1018% → 13%
GTDrive 20TD4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2588% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 45 yds · 2:065% → 5%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
4.8%
Devin Powell pass complete to Danté Butler for 4 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
5.0%
Devin Powell pass complete to Justyn Shackleford for 27 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
5.5%
Devin Powell pass complete to Dontrell Hilliard for 4 yds to the GTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22END OF GAME13 plays · 60 yds · 6:1496% → 98%
Q4 1:44
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+5
1.8%
TULANE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
1.7%
Tim Byerly run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 29 Tim Byerly fumbled, recovered by GTech Tim ByerlySimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+15
1.7%
Tim Byerly run for 1 yd to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (14 Yards) to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:51
Tony Zenon run for 19 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q3 4:14
Tony Zenon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q2 9:38
Tanner Lee pass complete to Xavier Rush for 61 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
+8.4