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NAVY

Navy 31 at Temple 24

TEM
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLEFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:18 · Alex Starzyk punt for 39 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 4 yds to the Navy 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Home team on offense+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:49: Geoffrey Whiteside run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:03: P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +13.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 8:14: Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:47: DeBrandon Sanders run for 24 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:49: P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +17.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 9 of 11NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:18NAVY 4th & 2 at TEM 11, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:18TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:41TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.8%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:41TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 45, down 10
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:53TEM 4th & 1 at NAVY 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−1.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:21NAVY 4th & 1 at TEM 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%−1.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:08TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:41TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:48TEM 4th & 10 at NAVY 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−8.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 46, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:08NAVY 4th & 1 at TEM 26, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.3%−1.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−6.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:08TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.3%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:31TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%−3.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:31TEM 4th & 1 at NAVY 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−7.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−7.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:05NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:49NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:03TEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:14NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:47NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:49TEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEMDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
44.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to John Christopher for 3 yds to the Temp 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
44.0%
P.J. Walker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+19
44.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brandon Shippen for 19 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
44.0%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
44.0%
P.J. Walker run for 7 yds to the Temp 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
44.0%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Kenneth HarperSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+49
44.0%
Alex Starzyk punt for 49 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FUMBLE TD
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
45.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards Keenan Reynolds fumbled, forced by Sharif Finch, recovered by Temp Sharif Finch for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:4955% → 54%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
45.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+19
45.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 19 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
45.1%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+16
45.0%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Nate D. Smith) to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
44.9%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 16 yds to the Temp 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
44.9%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Temp 19Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
44.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 4 yds to the Temp 15Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+4
45.0%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 4 yds to the Temp 11Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+29
46.4%
Nick Sloan 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
46.5%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
46.9%
Kenneth Harper run for 2 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
46.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 2 yds to the Temp 38Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
46.7%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Brandon Shippen, broken up by Quincy AdamsSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+1
46.4%
P.J. Walker run for 1 yd to the Temp 39Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+4
46.2%
Alex Starzyk punt for 39 yds , DeBrandon Sanders returns for 4 yds to the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:0152% → 55%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
47.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 8 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+6
47.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
47.1%
Chris Swain run for 12 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
46.7%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Geoffrey WhitesideSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+48
44.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 48 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:0045% → 47%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.2%
Kenneth Harper run for 3 yds to the Temp 28Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
45.3%
Kenneth Harper run for 2 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
45.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 9 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
45.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Dion Dawkins for 7 yds to the Temp 46Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
46.4%
Jahad Thomas run for 5 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
46.6%
Jahad Thomas run for 3 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
46.6%
Jahad Thomas run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+7
46.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Nate Hairston for 7 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
46.6%
P.J. Walker pass intercepted, touchback. Parrish Gaines return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0755% → 61%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
45.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+56
45.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 56 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
43.3%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Temp 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
43.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+10
44.3%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Noah Copeland for 10 yds to the Temp 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
39.3%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0039% → 40%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
39.2%
Jamie Gilmore run for 5 yds to the Temp 15Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+6
39.3%
P.J. Walker pass complete to John Christopher for 6 yds to the Temp 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
39.3%
P.J. Walker run for 5 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
39.6%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Nate HairstonSimilar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+4
39.0%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Nate Hairston for 4 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+7
39.0%
Jamie Gilmore run for 7 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
39.8%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Jalen FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
39.7%
Kenneth Harper run for no gain to the Temp 37Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+8
38.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 8 yds to the Temp 45Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
39.6%
Alex Starzyk punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
39.4%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 5 yds to the Navy 24 Ryan Williams-Jenkins fumbled, forced by Jihaad Pretlow, recovered by Temp Sharif FinchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
40.4%
Jamie Gilmore run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+4
40.4%
Jamie Gilmore run for 4 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+3
39.4%
P.J. Walker run for 3 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
38.7%
P.J. Walker run for no gain to the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 65 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
38.9%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+7
38.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
38.9%
Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 8 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
38.5%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 9 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
37.4%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
37.4%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 3 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+6
37.6%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
37.4%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 19 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
37.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Temp 25Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
37.1%
Keenan Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+6
37.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 6 yds to the Temp 19Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 1
OPP 19
-1
38.3%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 1:4033% → 49%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
33.3%
TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Sean Chandler) to the Temp 10Similar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
33.1%
P.J. Walker pass complete to John Christopher for 9 yds to the Temp 19Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+18
33.8%
Kenneth Harper run for 18 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
34.1%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete, broken up by Paul QuessenberrySimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+26
33.9%
P.J. Walker run for 11 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Daniel Gonzales) to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
35.8%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Khalif Herbin for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
37.4%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Nate HairstonSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+11
35.6%
P.J. Walker run for 11 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
37.4%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 8 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+8
34.9%
Kenneth Harper run for 8 yds to the Navy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
48.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:4657% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
43.1%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 12 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
42.1%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 8 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
41.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
41.0%
Keenan Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Temp 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
40.2%
Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Temp 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+7
40.6%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
40.6%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 5 yds to the Temp 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+1
39.5%
Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Temp 30Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+8
38.7%
Noah Copeland run for 8 yds to the Temp 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
37.2%
Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
37.8%
Noah Copeland run for 7 yds to the Temp 15Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+7
38.7%
Noah Copeland run for 7 yds to the Temp 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
37.2%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Temp 6 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Brandon Chudnoff) to the Temp 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.4%
Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
25.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jamie Gilmore for 12 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
26.7%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 5 yds to the Temp 25Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-1
27.3%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jamie Gilmore for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 24Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
25.9%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Brandon ShippenSimilar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
25.5%
Alex Starzyk punt for 54 yds, downed at the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:1373% → 88%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+31
27.3%
Noah Copeland run for 31 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
25.1%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 18 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
24.5%
Chris Swain run for 5 yds to the Temp 24Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+24
11.8%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 24 yds for a TD, (Nick Sloan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
15.0%
Kenneth Harper run for 6 yds to the Temp 25Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
15.1%
Kenneth Harper run for no gain to the Temp 25Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
15.0%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Kenneth HarperSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
14.8%
Alex Starzyk punt for 62 yds, downed at the Navy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
12.6%
Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 22 Chris Swain fumbled, forced by Jyquis Thomas, recovered by Temp Tyler MatakevichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:4017% → 10%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
16.8%
Jalen Fitzpatrick run for 2 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
16.8%
Kenneth Harper run for 6 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+4
16.3%
Kenneth Harper run for 4 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
16.8%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Wanemi OmusoSimilar
Q3 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
16.8%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Saledeem MajorSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
16.0%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Romond Deloatch, broken up by Quincy AdamsSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
10.0%
Austin Jones 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:4287% → 88%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
13.3%
Ryan Williams-Jenkins run for 6 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+5
13.3%
Keenan Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
13.2%
Noah Copeland run for 7 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
13.1%
Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
12.5%
DeBrandon Sanders run for 6 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
10.8%
Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
11.1%
Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
11.9%
Pablo Beltran punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 3:397% → 26%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
7.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to John Christopher for 7 yds to the Temp 19Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+7
7.2%
P.J. Walker run for 7 yds to the Temp 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
7.3%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jamie Gilmore for 13 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
7.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Nate Hairston for 5 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-10
8.1%
WALKER,P.J. rush for 5 yards to the TU49 (Britton, James), PENALTY TU holding (DAWKINS,Dion) 10 yards to the TU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+30
7.6%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 30 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
8.5%
P.J. Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+12
8.3%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 12 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
8.9%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Brandon Shippen for 9 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+3
8.9%
Kenneth Harper run for 3 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
26.3%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22MISSED FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 7:3681% → 91%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
19.1%
Noah Copeland run for 2 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+9
19.5%
Geoffrey Whiteside run for 9 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
18.2%
Noah Copeland run for 3 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+8
18.1%
Noah Copeland run for 8 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
16.6%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+7
16.3%
Chris Swain run for 7 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
15.6%
Chris Swain run for 9 yds to the Temp 39Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+4
10.7%
Noah Copeland run for 4 yds to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
10.5%
Noah Copeland run for 1 yd to the Temp 34Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+4
10.6%
Tago Smith run for 4 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
10.7%
Demond Brown run for 4 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+43
9.2%
Nick Sloan 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23FUMBLE
19 plays · 64 yds · 0:3715% → 17%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
14.5%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Brandon ShippenSimilar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
14.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 3 yds to the Temp 29Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+6
14.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 6 yds to the Temp 35Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+1
13.8%
Kenneth Harper run for 1 yd to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.5%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Brandon ShippenSimilar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
15.3%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 7 yds to the Temp 43Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
15.7%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Khalif Herbin, broken up by Jordan DrakeSimilar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+4
11.5%
P.J. Walker run for 4 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
13.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to John Christopher for 7 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
16.9%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to John ChristopherSimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
13.9%
P.J. Walker run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+11
13.2%
P.J. Walker pass complete to Kenneth Harper for 11 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
17.8%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+14
17.2%
P.J. Walker run for 14 yds to the Navy 10 Brendan McGowan Brendan McGowan fumbled, recovered by Navy Chris JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
13.2%
Kenneth Harper run for 2 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
14.8%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to John Christopher, broken up by Quincy AdamsSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
13.9%
P.J. Walker pass incomplete to Romond DeloatchSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
17.3%
P.J. Walker run for 7 yds to the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:49
P.J. Walker pass complete to Jalen Fitzpatrick for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
+17.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.3
TD · Q2 0:03
P.J. Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com