Try the model
MEM

Memphis 35 at UCLA 42

UCLA
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Rose Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 5 yds to the UCLA 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:05: Brandon Hayes 18 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +4.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:51: Myles Jack 4 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) — UCLA win probability +5.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:21: Doroland Dorceus 40 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +11.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:44: Fritz Etienne 17 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +19.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:52: Thomas Duarte 33 Yd pass from Brett Hundley (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) — UCLA win probability +18.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:22MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:04UCLA 4th & 19 at MEM 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:51MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:50MEM 4th & 1 at UCLA 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:28MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 43, down 6
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:01UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 22, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:23MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13UCLA 4th & 10 at MEM 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:02UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:57MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:16MEM 4th & 8 at UCLA 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:10UCLA 4th & 20 at UCLA 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:30UCLA 4th & 1 at MEM 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−8.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−6.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:13MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 49, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:41UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:25MEM 4th & 16 at MEM 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:45UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:17UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:25MEM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:09UCLA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:39MEM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:46UCLA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:39UCLA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:05MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:51UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:21MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:44MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:52UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:307% → 7%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
93.3%
Brandon Hayes run for no gain to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+9
93.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 9 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 1
OWN 31
-3
92.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 42 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:0193% → 92%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
92.9%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Paul Perkins for 5 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+6
92.8%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 6 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
92.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 9 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
92.7%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
92.7%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
92.6%
Paul Perkins run for 1 yd to the Memph 47Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+6
92.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 6 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
92.4%
Brett Hundley run for 11 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
92.4%
Myles Jack run for 1 yd to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-7
92.2%
Brett Hundley sacked by Cortez Crosby for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 16
OPP 36
-3
92.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Paul Perkins for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
91.7%
Matt Mengel punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:048% → 8%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+28
91.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 28 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-15
91.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Memph 23Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 25
OWN 23
+1
91.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 24
OWN 24
+11
91.7%
Brandon Hayes run for 11 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
91.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 36 yds, downed at the UCLA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:2792% → 92%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
91.5%
Jordon James run for 2 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+10
91.4%
Brett Hundley run for 10 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordon James for no gain to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
91.2%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+10
91.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
91.3%
Paul Perkins run for 13 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
91.4%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+2
91.4%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 2 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
91.3%
Brett Hundley run for 2 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
91.4%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 6 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+2
91.3%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Logan Sweet for 2 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+17
91.9%
Paul Perkins 17 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:409% → 12%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
91.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
91.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 11 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
91.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
91.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+17
90.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 17 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
90.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Joe Craig for 12 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
90.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 13 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
90.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the UCLA 8Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
87.6%
Paxton Lynch 8 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
91.1%
Kenneth Walker 62 Yd pass from Brett Hundley (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:219% → 15%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.8%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
90.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 14 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
90.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 5 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
90.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
90.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
89.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
89.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 3 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
89.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 3 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
89.4%
Sam Craft run for 2 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+18
89.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 18 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
88.9%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 4 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
88.9%
UCLA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UCLA 11Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+4
88.7%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 4 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
84.8%
Sam Craft 7 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5387% → 91%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
87.3%
Nate Starks run for 11 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
87.5%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Jordan PaytonSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+35
87.3%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 20 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
90.7%
Thomas Duarte 14 Yd pass from Brett Hundley (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:1210% → 11%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
89.6%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+10
89.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 10 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
89.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 13 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.1%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
89.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 5 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+1
89.1%
Paxton Lynch run for 1 yd to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
89.5%
Spencer Smith punt for 39 yds, downed at the UCLA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:4990% → 93%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
89.8%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 13Similar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+5
89.7%
Paul Perkins run for 5 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
89.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 6 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+6
89.4%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 6 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
89.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 3 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
89.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Lucien for 4 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
89.6%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 7 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+52
90.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 52 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.3%
Paul Perkins 4 Yd Run (Brett Hundley Pass to Tyler Scott for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:057% → 13%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
92.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 30 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
92.3%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Tevin Jones for 33 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
91.6%
Paxton Lynch run for 4 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+18
87.1%
Brandon Hayes 18 Yd pass from Paxton Lynch (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3889% → 88%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
89.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 9 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
89.2%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
88.8%
Jordon James run for no gain to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
88.1%
Matt Mengel punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3712% → 11%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
87.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
87.4%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
88.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
88.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:1089% → 88%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
88.8%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 9 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+16
89.2%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 16 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
89.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
89.7%
Brett Hundley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
89.6%
Brett Hundley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
89.0%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin FullerSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
88.3%
Matt Mengel punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
88.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4888% → 87%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
88.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Paul Perkins for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 10Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+11
87.8%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 11 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
87.9%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
87.7%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+5
87.1%
Brett Hundley run for 5 yds to the UCLA 25 Brett Hundley fumbled, recovered by UCLA Brett HundleySimilar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
86.5%
Matt Mengel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5513% → 13%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
86.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
86.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
86.8%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Mose Frazier for 6 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
85.9%
Paxton Lynch run for no gain to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
85.9%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-5
86.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+5
86.7%
Paxton Lynch run for 5 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
86.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:4488% → 95%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
87.9%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
87.7%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
88.2%
Paul Perkins run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
89.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Tyler Scott for 12 yds to the MEMPHIS 48 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+28
89.3%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 28 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
89.7%
Brett Hundley run for 3 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-2
89.7%
Brett Hundley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+9
89.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 9 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
89.5%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
89.5%
Brett Hundley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+7
88.8%
Paul Perkins run for 7 yds to the Memph 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
89.4%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.5%
Myles Jack 4 Yd Run (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:357% → 6%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
92.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 15 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
92.4%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+18
92.5%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 18 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
91.6%
Keiwone Malone pass incomplete to Paxton LynchSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
91.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Sam CraftSimilar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+2
93.8%
Brandon Hayes run for 2 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+50
93.9%
Jake Elliott 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:0096% → 95%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.7%
Brett Hundley pass incomplete to Devin LucienSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
95.7%
Nate Starks run for no gain to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-10
95.8%
Brett Hundley sacked by Tank Jakes for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 23 Brett Hundley fumbled, recovered by UCLASimilar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 20
OWN 23
0
95.4%
Matt Mengel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:346% → 17%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
94.0%
Sam Craft run for 9 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
93.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
94.6%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+8
94.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 8 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+40
83.5%
Doroland Dorceus 40 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2690% → 71%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
90.3%
Paul Perkins run for no gain to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+17
70.8%
Fritz Etienne 17 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4671% → 93%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
71.3%
Brett Hundley run for 13 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
73.0%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 11 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
74.4%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 1 yd to the 50 yard line UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 40Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 19
OWN 40
-3
71.5%
Brett Hundley sacked by Tank Jakes for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 22
OWN 37
+17
70.5%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 17 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
73.9%
Brett Hundley run for 4 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
71.9%
Myles Jack run for 2 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
73.9%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Devin Fuller for 7 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+33
92.6%
Thomas Duarte 33 Yd pass from Brett Hundley (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 3:2713% → 12%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
87.5%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Alan CrossSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
87.8%
Paxton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-5
88.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Roderick Proctor) to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+11
88.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 11 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
86.6%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
87.0%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Daniel MontielSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
87.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Sam CraftSimilar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+15
88.4%
UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Kenny Orjioke) to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
85.2%
Brandon Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+4
86.2%
Brandon Hayes run for 4 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+2
87.0%
Paxton Lynch run for 2 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
87.7%
Spencer Smith punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCLA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1792% → 92%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
91.5%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 5Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+6
91.4%
Paul Perkins run for 6 yds to the UCLA 11Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+16
91.4%
Brett Hundley pass complete to Jordan Payton for 16 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
92.7%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
92.6%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
92.3%
Brett Hundley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
92.0%
Matt Mengel punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:0212% → 9%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
88.0%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Sam Craft for 7 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-10
86.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-2
90.4%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+15
91.2%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Priest Willis) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
50
0
87.3%
Paxton Lynch pass incomplete to Tevin JonesSimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
50
0
87.7%
Paxton Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
50
-6
88.8%
Paxton Lynch sacked by Ellis McCarthy and Matt Dickerson for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
91.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1595% → 96%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
95.3%
Paul Perkins run for 10 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
95.3%
Paul Perkins run for 3 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
95.2%
Paul Perkins run for 2 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-2
96.2%
Paul Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 20Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
95.7%
Matt Mengel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Keiwone Malone at the Memph 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:399% → 9%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
91.2%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for 5 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+9
90.4%
Brandon Hayes run for 9 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
89.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Brandon Hayes for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+5
90.6%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Keiwone Malone for 5 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:44
Fritz Etienne 17 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)
-19.5
TD · Q4 10:52
Thomas Duarte 33 Yd pass from Brett Hundley (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)
+18.8
TD · Q4 14:21
Doroland Dorceus 40 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)
-11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com