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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadGRAM aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreGRAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:09 · Johnathan Wallace punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Gramb 13 , Greg Ward Jr. returns for 31 yds to the HOUSTON 45 GRAMBLING Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Gramb 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 3:04: Kyle Bullard 42 yd FG GOOD — GRAM win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:06: Kyle Bullard 38 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:51: Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:32: Ryan Jackson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7GRAM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 14:22GRAM 4th & 6 at GRAM 49, down 7Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:52HOU 4th & 4 at GRAM 47, up 7Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:04HOU 4th & 7 at GRAM 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%66% to makePunt98.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 1:19GRAM 4th & 28 at GRAM 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 12:06GRAM 4th & 4 at GRAM 18, down 13Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 9:32GRAM 4th & 3 at HOU 41, down 27Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.5%52% to convertField goal0.3%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 4:09GRAM 4th & 6 at GRAM 24, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 15:00GRAM 4th & 1 at HOU 1, down 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%59% to convertField goal0.6%−0.294% to makePunt0.1%−0.7average punt
- Q3 10:37HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 2, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.227% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 7:00HOU 4th & 11 at GRAM 18, up 34Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%79% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 7:00GRAM 4th & 8 at GRAM 21, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 2:18HOU 4th & 4 at GRAM 4, up 37Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:54GRAM 4th & 7 at GRAM 33, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 46, up 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 12:24GRAM 4th & 18 at GRAM 18, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:45HOU 4th & 1 at GRAM 1, up 40Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%59% to convertField goal99.7%−0.294% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 14:22HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:51HOU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:32HOU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:37HOU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHOUDrive 1TD4 plays · 80 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
99.5%
GRAMBLING Penalty, sideline interference (13 Yards) to the Gramb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 0:001% → 1%
HOUDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 42 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 11:52
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+5
99.4%
GRAMBLING Penalty, Defensive offside (Donovan McCray) to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+20
99.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 20 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 4 yds to the Gramb 49Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
99.4%
Logan Piper punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Chester Rogers at the Gramb 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 4INT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:29
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+9
99.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Anthony McGhee for 9 yds to the Gramb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
99.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Verlon Hunter for 6 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-15
99.3%
Skinner, Cedric rush over left tackle for 2 yards to the HOU47 (MARK, Tomme;EILAND, Eric), PENALTY GSU face mask (Bazil, Chris) 15 yards to the GSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 18
OWN 36
+5
99.3%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted William Jackson return for 5 yds to the Gramb 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5FG6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0799% → 99%
GRAMDrive 6PUNT10 plays · -5 yds · 1:451% → 1%
Q1 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.0%
D.J. Williams pass complete to Chad Williams for 13 yds to the Gramb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
99.0%
Williams, D.J. out route pass incomplete to Mcghee, Anthony (BOWSER, Tyus), PENALTY GSU crackback (Bazile, Dwight) 15 yards to the GSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+11
99.0%
D.J. Williams pass complete to Chad Williams for 11 yds to the Gramb 34Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 14
OWN 34
-14
99.0%
Anthony McGhee sacked by Eric Eiland and Efrem Oliphant for a loss of 14 yards to the Gramb 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7FG12 plays · 40 yds · 3:2499% → 99%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
98.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+14
98.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 14 yds to the Gramb 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-10
98.8%
JACKSON, Ryan rush over left tackle for 5 yards to the GSU0, clock 13:00, PENALTY HOU holding (COOPER, Alex) 10 yards to the GSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 0
OPP 21
0
98.7%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Tyree HollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD3 plays · 73 yds · 0:5599% → 99%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+67
99.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 67 yds to the Gramb 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0999% → 100%
GRAMDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Chad Williams for 4 yds to the Gramb 30Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+27
99.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ka'Jandre Domino for 27 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
99.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Anthony McGhee for 4 yds to the Houst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FUMBLE8 plays · 98 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q2 7:02
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+14
99.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 14 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
99.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 18 yds to the Gramb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+10
99.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 10 yds to the Gramb 7Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
99.7%
Kenneth Farrow run for 5 yds Kenneth Farrow fumbled, forced by Team, recovered by Gramb Troy RoachSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Chester Rogers for 8 yds to the Gramb 28Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+31
99.8%
Johnathan Wallace punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Gramb 13 , Greg Ward Jr. returns for 31 yds to the HOUSTON 45 GRAMBLING Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Gramb 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD3 plays · 13 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
GRAMDrive 16END OF HALF6 plays · -9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.9%
GRAMBLING Penalty, delay of game (Johnathan Williams) to the Gramb 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 71 yds · 0:000% → 1%
HOUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
GRAMDrive 19INT3 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
HOUDrive 20FG4 plays · -1 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q3 7:47
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
99.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Mike RoachSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:00
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+15
99.9%
Johnathan Wallace punt for 44 yds , Greg Ward Jr. returns for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22FG13 plays · 46 yds · 3:52100% → 100%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 7 yds to the Gramb 43Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 5 yds to the Gramb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.9%
O'KORN, John thrown away pass incomplete, QB hurry by Orisakwe, Steve, PENALTY GSU roughing passer (Mccray, Donovan) 15 yards to the GSU23, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+5
99.9%
GRAMBLING Penalty, Defensive offside (Larry Stalling) to the Gramb 19Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
99.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay Greenberry, broken up by Tyree HollinsSimilar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+11
99.9%
GRAMBLING Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyree Hollins) to the Gramb 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
John O'Korn run for no gain to the Gramb 4 John O'Korn fumbled, recovered by Houst John O'KornSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q3 0:54
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Johnathan Wallace punt for 49 yds , Greg Ward Jr. returns for no gain to the Houst 15 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by Gramb Brandon ByrdsongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 24INT3 plays · -15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-15
99.9%
Williams, D.J. post pass incomplete to Williams, Chad (WHITE, Tyler), PENALTY GSU face mask (Miller, Justin) 15 yards to the HOU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 25
OPP 30
+24
99.9%
D.J. Williams pass intercepted Earl Foster return for 24 yds to the Houst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
99.9%
WEBB, Javin rush over left tackle for 8 yards to the GSU49, out-of-bounds (Roach, Mike), PENALTY HOU holding (WALL, Carter) 10 yards to the HOU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Billy Cosh pass complete to Wayne Beadle for 2 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Dylan Seibert punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chester Rogers at the Gramb 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:24
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-8
100.0%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Jeremiah Farley for a loss of 8 yards to the Gramb 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27DOWNS6 plays · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 28FUMBLE TD3 plays · -1 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 3:30
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
100.0%
Cedric Skinner run for a loss of 1 yard Cedric Skinner fumbled, forced by Earl Foster, recovered by Houst Vincent Hall for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 29FUMBLE4 plays · 22 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
100.0%
Jestin Kelly run for 2 yds to the Gramb 47 Jestin Kelly fumbled, recovered by Houst Vincent HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30END OF GAME3 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:51
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
+0.4
FG · Q2 12:06
Kyle Bullard 38 yd FG GOOD
+0.3
TD · Q2 9:32
Ryan Jackson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)
+0.3