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SMU

SMU 0 at Baylor 45

BAY
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2014 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:52 · Spencer Roth punt for 38 yds, downed at the SMU 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Pregame prior+41.5Home team on offense+12.8Score differential+8.7Blowout margin−0.1Garbage-time factor+4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:23: Shock Linwood run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:40: Bryce Petty pass complete to Tre'Von Armstead for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:40: BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 15 — SMU win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q1 0:28: Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 46 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 10:50: Bryce Petty run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:22SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:38BAY 4th & 5 at SMU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:30SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:21BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:51SMU 4th & 24 at SMU 3, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.3
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:19SMU 4th & 13 at BAY 36, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:07SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 20, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:52BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 43, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:08SMU 4th & 4 at BAY 47, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:22BAY 4th & 19 at SMU 49, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:31SMU 4th & 15 at BAY 46, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:35BAY 4th & 2 at SMU 39, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:53BAY 4th & 8 at SMU 18, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:08SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 36, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:40BAY 4th & 16 at SMU 20, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:49SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 29, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:48SMU 4th & 22 at SMU 2, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:38BAY 4th & 11 at SMU 35, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:34SMU 4th & 4 at BAY 37, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:31BAY 4th & 9 at SMU 38, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:55SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 27, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:23BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:40BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:28BAY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:50BAY Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:36BAY Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:06BAY Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:282% → 2%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.0%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Kevin Pope for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
97.9%
Neal Burcham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
97.9%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Kevin Pope for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
97.8%
Jackson Koonce punt for 34 yds , Levi Norwood returns for 4 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 1:4498% → 98%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
97.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+8
97.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 8 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
97.8%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
97.8%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
97.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 6 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+16
97.8%
Bryce Petty run for 16 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
97.7%
Shock Linwood run for 12 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
97.7%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
97.7%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
97.7%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
97.7%
Chris Callahan 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:572% → 3%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.6%
Neal Burcham pass incomplete to Stephen NelsonSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
97.6%
Neal Burcham pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+11
97.6%
Prescott Line run for 11 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
97.5%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Cedric Lancaster for 2 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
97.5%
Neal Burcham pass incomplete to Kevin PopeSimilar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+4
97.5%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Darius Joseph for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
97.4%
Jackson Koonce punt for 30 yds, downed at the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:0297% → 97%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
97.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 16 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Antwan GoodleySimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
97.4%
Devin Chafin run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
97.3%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 9
OWN 47
+1
97.2%
Spencer Roth punt for 44 yds , Cedric Lancaster returns for 1 yd to the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
97.2%
Matt Davis pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 6 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+6
97.1%
Matt Davis pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 6 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
97.1%
SMU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
97.1%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+11
97.0%
Matt Davis pass complete to Stephen Nelson for no gain Stephen Nelson fumbled, forced by Bryce Hager, recovered by Bayl Aiavion Edwards , return for 11 yds to the SMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2797% → 97%
Q1 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
97.1%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.3%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 2:193% → 3%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
97.3%
Matt Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 14
OWN 13
-1
97.2%
Kevin Pope run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 15
OWN 12
-9
97.2%
Matt Davis sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 3Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 24
OWN 3
+45
97.2%
Jackson Koonce punt for 46 yds , Levi Norwood returns for 45 yds to the SMU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0597% → 98%
Q1 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
97.1%
Devin Chafin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 5Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
97.1%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.7%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Tre'Von Armstead for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 24
OWN 20
-5
97.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:013% → 3%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
97.4%
Neal Burcham sacked by Beau Blackshear for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 15
OPP 38
0
97.5%
Neal Burcham pass incomplete to Darius JosephSimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+2
97.5%
Matt Davis run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 13
OPP 36
0
97.5%
Neal Burcham pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:4798% → 98%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.8%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+14
97.8%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 14 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
98.4%
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 46 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:132% → 2%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
98.2%
Matt Davis sacked by K.J. Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
98.3%
Matt Davis pass incomplete to Cedric LancasterSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+6
98.3%
Kevin Pope run for 6 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
98.3%
Jackson Koonce punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0899% → 98%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
98.5%
Devin Chafin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
98.5%
Devin Chafin run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
98.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Shock LinwoodSimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
98.4%
Spencer Roth punt for 38 yds, downed at the SMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:292% → 2%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
98.3%
Kevin Pope run for 1 yd to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+4
98.3%
Prescott Line run for 4 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
98.3%
Matt Davis pass intercepted Xavien Howard return for no gain to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:1599% → 99%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
98.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 15 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
98.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Jay Lee for 13 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.1%
Bryce Petty run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:301% → 1%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
98.9%
Neal Burcham run for 6 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamal Palmer) to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
98.6%
Kevin Pope run for 5 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-1
98.6%
Kevin Pope run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+2
99.3%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Darius Joseph for 2 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Neal Burcham pass incomplete to Ryheem MaloneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
99.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 13 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.3%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-15
99.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (Johnny Jefferson) to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 23
OWN 47
+4
99.3%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Levi Norwood for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 19
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Bryce Petty pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
99.3%
Spencer Roth punt for 6 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 4 yds · 2:441% → 0%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Neal Burcham pass incomplete to Der'rikk ThompsonSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.5%
Prescott Line run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
99.6%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Der'rikk Thompson for 15 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.6%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Cedric Lancaster for 3 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
99.6%
Neal Burcham pass incomplete to Kevin PopeSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-8
99.6%
Neal Burcham sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 15
OPP 46
-7
99.6%
Neal Burcham sacked by Javonte Magee and Shawn Oakman for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 29 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+8
99.5%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Davion Hall for 8 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+3
99.5%
Johnny Jefferson run for 3 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.6%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Jay LeeSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+16
99.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Johnny Jefferson for 16 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 3 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
99.6%
Bryce Petty pass incomplete to Shock LinwoodSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-10
99.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyle Fuller) to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 17
OPP 27
+9
99.6%
Bryce Petty pass complete to Davion Hall for 9 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
99.6%
Chris Callahan 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.7%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Kevin Pope for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
99.7%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Kevin Pope for 3 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
99.7%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Kevin Pope for 2 yds Kevin Pope fumbled, recovered by SMU Taylor LaseckiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20INT
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 3 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
99.6%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
99.6%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
50
+15
99.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Davion Hall for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
99.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+3
99.7%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+10
99.7%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Hayden Greenbauer return for 10 yds to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 3:120% → 0%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
99.7%
Kevin Pope run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+12
99.7%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Darius Joseph for 12 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.7%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Cedric Lancaster for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-9
99.7%
Neal Burcham sacked by Shawn Oakman for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 32 Neal Burcham fumbled, recovered by SMU Kris Weeks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+4
99.7%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Prescott Line for 4 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Jackson Koonce punt for 52 yds, downed at the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22MISSED FG
19 plays · 68 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
99.8%
Seth Russell run for 5 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+9
99.8%
Seth Russell run for 9 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Davion HallSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+8
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Levi Norwood for 8 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.8%
KD Cannon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+11
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 11 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Levi Norwood for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+11
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 11 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
99.9%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+6
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.9%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the SMU 13Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-2
99.9%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Levi NorwoodSimilar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 11
OPP 15
-5
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Ishmael Wilson) to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+37
99.9%
Chris Callahan 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Andrew McCleneghen Cameron Nwosu return for 3 yds to the SMU 20 Cameron Nwosu fumbled, recovered by Bayl LaQuan McGowanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
99.9%
Shock Linwood run for 13 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds Shock Linwood fumbled, recovered by SMU Ajee MontesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.8%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Darius Durall for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+4
99.9%
Darius Durall run for 4 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
99.9%
Neal Burcham pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 7 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Jackson Koonce punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Levi Norwood at the Bayl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+18
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Tre'Von Armstead for 18 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Levi Norwood for 10 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
99.9%
Seth Russell run for 11 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 10 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 9 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jay Lee for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:380% → 0%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Neal Burcham pass incomplete to Darius DurallSimilar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Neal Burcham pass incomplete to Kevin PopeSimilar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 10
OWN 14
-12
99.9%
Neal Burcham sacked by Beau Blackshear for a loss of 12 yards to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 22
OWN 2
0
99.9%
Jackson Koonce punt for 43 yds , Cal Spangler returns for no gain to the Bayl 2 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (Troy Baker) to the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27MISSED FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 5
50
+16
99.9%
Seth Russell run for 16 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Johnny Jefferson run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+7
99.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Davion Hall for 7 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-10
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+52
99.9%
Chris Callahan 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28DOWNS
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 1 yd to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
100.0%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
100.0%
Kolney Cassel pass complete to Daijuan Stewart for 6 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Kolney Cassel pass incomplete to Daijuan StewartSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
100.0%
Kolney Cassel pass complete to Shelby Walker for 8 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
100.0%
Prescott Line run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
100.0%
Kolney Cassel pass complete to Daijuan Stewart for 6 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
100.0%
Kolney Cassel pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
100.0%
Kolney Cassel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 4
OPP 37
-6
100.0%
Kolney Cassel sacked by Suleiman Masumbuko for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29TD
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
100.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+14
100.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Davion Hall for 14 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
100.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Johnny Jefferson run for no gain to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+13
100.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 13 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
100.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Davion Hall for 12 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
100.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Davion Hall for 8 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+1
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 1 yd to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
100.0%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Silas Nacita 1 Yd Run (Kyle Peterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Kolney Cassel pass incomplete to K.C. NlemchiSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
K.C. Nlemchi run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Kolney Cassel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Jackson Koonce punt for 43 yds, downed at the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 31END OF GAME
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-6
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Pat Colbert) to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 5 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+28
100.0%
Chris Johnson pass complete to Davion Hall for 28 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 4 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-5
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+6
100.0%
Silas Nacita run for 6 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+17
100.0%
Chris Johnson run for 17 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:40
Bryce Petty pass complete to Tre'Von Armstead for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 0:28
Bryce Petty pass complete to KD Cannon for 46 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 10:50
Bryce Petty run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com