Try the model
WCU

Western Carolina 31 at South Florida 36

USF
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Raymond James Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadWCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreWCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-12.2USF 84.0%Spearman Robinson 6 Yd pass from TroyMitchell (Richard Sigmon Kick)AWAY 24 - HOME 30 · Q4 6:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:06 · Spearman Robinson 6 Yd pass from Troy Mitchell (Richard Sigmon Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense+9.7Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Time remaining+2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:57: Marlon Mack 60 Yd Run (Marvin Kloss Kick) — USF win probability +11.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:21: Marlon Mack 3 Yd Run (Marvin Kloss Kick) — USF win probability +8.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:06: Spearman Robinson 6 Yd pass from Troy Mitchell (Richard Sigmon Kick) — WCU win probability +12.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:40: Marlon Mack 56 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — USF win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:09: Terryon Robinson 14 Yd pass from Troy Mitchell (Richard Sigmon Kick) — WCU win probability +17.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:02USF 4th & 5 at WCU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:18WCU 4th & 2 at USF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:25USF 4th & 5 at WCU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.4%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55USF 4th & 12 at USF 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:22WCU 4th & 1 at WCU 31, up 11
    Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:08USF 4th & 8 at WCU 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:08WCU 4th & 10 at WCU 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:38WCU 4th & 2 at WCU 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:41USF 4th & 11 at USF 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:03WCU 4th & 7 at USF 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:24USF 4th & 2 at WCU 7, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:56WCU 4th & 13 at USF 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:19USF 4th & 5 at USF 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:41WCU 4th & 10 at WCU 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:58WCU 4th & 8 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:06WCU 4th & 6 at USF 6, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:35WCU 4th & 12 at WCU 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:45USF 4th & 1 at WCU 35, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:59WCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00WCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:38USF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:57USF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:21USF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:06WCU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:40USF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.7%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:09WCU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−7.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WCUDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
96.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 11 yds to the WCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
96.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 7 yds to the WCaro 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
96.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 5 yds to the WCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
96.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 7 yds to the WCaro 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+1
96.1%
Darius Ramsey run for 1 yd to the WCaro 41 Darius Ramsey fumbled, forced by Nigel Harris, recovered by SFla Todd ChandlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
95.8%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the WCaro 36Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
95.8%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for no gain to the WCaro 36Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
95.8%
Mike White pass incomplete to Sean Price, broken up by Sertonuse HarrisSimilar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
95.8%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.5%
Terryon Robinson pass intercepted Jamie Byrd return for no gain to the WCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
95.6%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the WCaro 44Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-5
95.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WCaro 49Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+5
95.6%
Mike White pass complete to Marlon Mack for 5 yds to the WCaro 44Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+10
95.6%
Mike White pass intercepted Ace Clark return for 10 yds to the WCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:195% → 7%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
95.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 9 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+1
95.1%
Detrez Newsome run for 1 yd to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
95.1%
Troy Mitchell run for 4 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
95.1%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Terryon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
95.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 4 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
95.1%
Troy Mitchell run for 5 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
95.0%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+7
95.0%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 7 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
95.0%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Terryon Robinson, broken up by Chris DunkleySimilar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
95.0%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 5 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+14
95.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Jeff Moore for 14 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.0%
Troy Mitchell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Richard Sigmon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:2794% → 93%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
93.5%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+9
93.5%
Rodney Adams run for 9 yds to the WCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
93.5%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the WCaro 39Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 6
OWN 0
+15
93.3%
WHITE, Mike rush for 3 yards to the WCU36 (Ace Clark), PENALTY USF holding 10 yards to the WCU49, NO PLAY, PENALTY WCU personal foul 15 yards to the WCU34, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
93.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Rodney Adams, broken up by Detrez NewsomeSimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
93.6%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the WCaro 25Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-4
93.5%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 4 yards to the WCaro 29Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
92.7%
Marvin Kloss 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 2:198% → 11%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
92.5%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 8 yds to the WCaro 20Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+16
92.4%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 16 yds to the WCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.3%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
92.4%
Darius Ramsey run for 15 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
92.1%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Willie PoliceSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
92.1%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Terryon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+36
92.3%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Darius Ramsey for 36 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
92.0%
Troy Mitchell run for 11 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.0%
Darius Ramsey 2 Yd Run (Richard Sigmon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
89.6%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
89.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the SFla 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFla Mike WhiteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+17
89.2%
Mike White run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
50
-2
89.9%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
89.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Andre DavisSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
89.5%
Mike White pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
89.2%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 42 yds, downed at the WCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
87.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 8 yds to the WCaro 18Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+4
86.9%
Darius Ramsey run for 4 yds to the WCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
87.0%
Darius Ramsey run for 3 yds to the WCaro 25Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-10
86.9%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WCaro 15Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+3
87.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 3 yds to the WCaro 18Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+13
87.3%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 13 yds to the WCaro 31Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+24
87.2%
Destry Barnwell punt for 41 yds , Chris Dunkley returns for 24 yds to the WCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10FG
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:1386% → 84%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+32
85.5%
Mike White pass complete to Sean Price for 32 yds to the WCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
86.0%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the WCaro 14Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
86.0%
Mike White pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
85.4%
Mike White pass incomplete to Rodney Adams, broken up by Jaleel LorquetSimilar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+33
84.4%
Marvin Kloss 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
83.8%
Detrez Newsome run for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 23Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-3
84.0%
Troy Mitchell sacked by Reshard Cliett for a loss of 3 yards to the WCaro 20Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
84.4%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Detrez Newsome for 5 yds to the WCaro 25Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
84.7%
Destry Barnwell punt for 37 yds, downed at the SFla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
87.9%
Marlon Mack run for 62 yds for a TD, (Marvin Kloss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.5%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 5 yds to the WCaro 30Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
86.2%
Darius Ramsey run for 3 yds to the WCaro 33Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
86.3%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Willie PoliceSimilar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
86.8%
Destry Barnwell punt for 46 yds, downed at the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
86.8%
Mike White pass incomplete to D'Ernest Johnson, broken up by Tyson DicksonSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-1
86.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
86.1%
Mike White pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
85.9%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 47 yds , Team returns for no gain to the WCaro 33 Team fumbled, recovered by WCaro Garrett BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:3915% → 20%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
84.9%
Darius Ramsey run for 2 yds to the WCaro 35Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+14
84.9%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 14 yds to the WCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
84.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
83.9%
Troy Mitchell run for 6 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
83.9%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 21 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
83.4%
Darius Ramsey run for 3 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
83.4%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Darius RamseySimilar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
83.9%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
80.4%
Richard Sigmon 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 0:3783% → 85%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
82.5%
Mike White pass incomplete to Rodney Adams, broken up by Christon GillSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+44
81.9%
Mike White pass complete to Andre Davis for 44 yds to the WCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
84.9%
Mike White pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
84.9%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the WCaro 7Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
83.8%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+26
84.7%
Marvin Kloss 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
82.5%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for no gain to the WCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
80.6%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 7 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
80.4%
Darius Ramsey run for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
80.6%
London Richardson run for 2 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
80.6%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
81.2%
Troy Mitchell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
81.9%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Spearman Robinson, broken up by Johnny WardSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
83.1%
Destry Barnwell punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
81.3%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
81.3%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
80.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
80.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 53 yds , Garrett Brown returns for no gain to the WCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
79.0%
Darius Ramsey run for 11 yds to the WCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
78.4%
Darius Ramsey run for 2 yds to the WCaro 35Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
78.5%
Darius Ramsey run for 7 yds to the WCaro 42Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
77.4%
Darius Ramsey run for 2 yds to the WCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
77.4%
Darius Ramsey run for 2 yds to the WCaro 46Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
77.2%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Michael Helms Jr. for 3 yds to the WCaro 49Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-5
77.2%
Troy Mitchell sacked by Demetrius Hill for a loss of 5 yards to the WCaro 44Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
80.1%
Destry Barnwell punt for 46 yds, downed at the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 1:4476% → 88%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
76.3%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+20
76.3%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 20 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
76.9%
Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+60
88.4%
Marlon Mack 60 Yd Run (Marvin Kloss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
85.0%
Darius Ramsey run for a loss of 3 yards to the WCaro 22Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
85.3%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 2 yds to the WCaro 24Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
86.0%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to S. Robinson for 36 yards to the USF40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY WCU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the WCU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 16
OPP 0
0
83.6%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Darius Ramsey for 4 yards to the WCU23 (CLIETT, Reshard), PENALTY WCU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY USF unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
86.1%
Destry Barnwell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chris Dunkley at the SFla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0088% → 89%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
88.3%
Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+7
88.7%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the WCaro 48 Marlon Mack fumbled, forced by Kelvin Ume, recovered by WCaro Daniel NashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 16%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
81.1%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Michael Helms Jr., broken up by Jamie ByrdSimilar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
81.9%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 4 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-2
81.0%
Troy Mitchell sacked by Derrick Calloway for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 8
50
0
83.6%
Destry Barnwell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Dunkley at the SFla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 3:0387% → 96%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
87.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 16 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (-8 Yards) to the SFla 8Similar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+2
86.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 10
0
86.8%
Mike White pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+33
86.1%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 33 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.5%
Mike White pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+17
88.2%
Marlon Mack run for 17 yds to the WCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+35
88.9%
Mike White pass complete to Deonte Welch for 35 yds to the WCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
89.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the WCaro 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
89.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 3Similar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
88.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.2%
Marlon Mack 3 Yd Run (Marvin Kloss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 26TD
20 plays · 76 yds · 6:096% → 16%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
94.4%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, false start (N/A) to the WCaro 19Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 15
OWN 19
-5
94.5%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 5 yds to the WCaro 24 WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WCaro 14Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 20
OWN 14
0
94.5%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Willie PoliceSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+14
94.5%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 14 yds to the WCaro 28Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+6
94.2%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 6 yds to the WCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
93.8%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 6 yds to the WCaro 40Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
93.5%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Spearman Robinson, broken up by Johnny WardSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+13
93.6%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 13 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
93.4%
Troy Mitchell run for 4 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
93.3%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Darius Ramsey for 7 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
93.4%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Terryon Robinson, broken up by Chris DunkleySimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
93.4%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Jeff Moore for 11 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
92.5%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Darius Ramsey for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+13
92.5%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 13 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
92.5%
Troy Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 9Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
92.5%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Michael Helms Jr. for 3 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
93.2%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Darius RamseySimilar
Q4 6:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.0%
Spearman Robinson 6 Yd pass from Troy Mitchell (Richard Sigmon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:1991% → 97%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
91.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+7
90.8%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+14
91.1%
Mike White pass complete to Rodney Adams for 14 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
96.8%
Marlon Mack 56 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
96.4%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Terryon RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
96.5%
Troy Mitchell sacked by Tashon Whitehurst for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 24Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
96.6%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Spearman RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
96.7%
Destry Barnwell punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5497% → 98%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
97.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the WCaro 49Similar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+3
97.1%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the WCaro 46Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+10
97.1%
Steven Bench pass complete to Marlon Pope for 10 yds to the WCaro 36Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
97.2%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the WCaro 35Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
97.9%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the WCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 30TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 1:312% → 21%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
97.6%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Darius Ramsey for 6 yds to the WCaro 41Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
97.6%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Darius RamseySimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
97.7%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 10 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
97.5%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Jeff Moore for 3 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
97.4%
Troy Mitchell pass incomplete to Spearman RobinsonSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+8
97.6%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Willie Police for 8 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
97.2%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 13 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
96.8%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to C.J. Goodman Jr. for 6 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
96.8%
Troy Mitchell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
97.1%
Troy Mitchell pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 5 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
79.2%
Terryon Robinson 14 Yd pass from Troy Mitchell (Richard Sigmon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:09
Terryon Robinson 14 Yd pass from Troy Mitchell (Richard Sigmon Kick)
-17.9
TD · Q4 6:06
Spearman Robinson 6 Yd pass from Troy Mitchell (Richard Sigmon Kick)
-12.2
TD · Q3 4:57
Marlon Mack 60 Yd Run (Marvin Kloss Kick)
+11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com