Try the model
UTSA

UTSA 27 at Houston 7

HOU
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2014 · TDECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:53 · Dylan Seibert punt for 40 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense−5.0Pregame prior+20.1Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:50: David Glasco II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +2.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:42: David Glasco II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +11.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:07: Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK) — UTSA win probability +15.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:50: David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the Houst 41 — UTSA win probability +7.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:04: Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK) — HOU win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UTSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:09HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:08HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:30UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:54HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 45, tied
    Close callWent for it · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:50HOU 4th & 10 at UTSA 24, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:19UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:53UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:25UTSA 4th & 24 at UTSA 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:45HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:33UTSA 4th & 10 at HOU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:53HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:48UTSA 4th & 5 at HOU 30, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:25HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−3.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:51UTSA 4th & 1 at HOU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−3.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−11.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:15UTSA 4th & 9 at HOU 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:21HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:00UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 48, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:06HOU 4th & 1 at UTSA 43, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−1.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:13UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 45, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:04UTSA 4th & 11 at HOU 13, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:37HOU 4th & 1 at UTSA 34, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:50UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:42UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:07UTSA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:04HOU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3983% → 83%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
83.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 21Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
83.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 3 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
82.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 10 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
82.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-2
82.6%
Dylan Seibert punt for 42 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0917% → 18%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
82.6%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kam Jones for no gain to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
82.6%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 11 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
82.3%
Kam Jones run for 5 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
82.1%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
81.8%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kam JonesSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
81.9%
Kristian Stern punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4082% → 82%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
82.0%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
81.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 4 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
81.7%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 6
OWN 20
-17
81.6%
Dylan Seibert punt for 46 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for a loss of 17 yards to the TexSA 17 Kenny Harrison fumbled, recovered by HoustSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
82.2%
- Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 22 - Team fumbled, recovered by TexSASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1518% → 19%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
81.7%
Tucker Carter sacked by Derrick Mathews for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+5
81.5%
Tucker Carter run for 5 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 12
OWN 20
0
81.4%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Jarveon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
81.5%
Kristian Stern punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · -37 yds · 1:2682% → 81%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.5%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
81.3%
John O'Korn run for no gain to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+4
80.9%
John O'Korn run for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 5
OWN 45
-42
81.0%
Dylan Seibert run for a loss of 42 yards to the Houst 3 Dylan Seibert fumbled, recovered by TexSASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.1%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
78.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 62 yds · 2:4079% → 77%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
78.6%
Kenneth Farrow run for 2 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+23
78.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 23 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
78.8%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 22 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
79.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
79.1%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for no gain to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+11
78.3%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
78.8%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
78.6%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
78.0%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+4
77.3%
John O'Korn run for 4 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2123% → 24%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
76.8%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
76.6%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to David Morgan IISimilar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
76.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Aaron Grubb for no gain to the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
76.3%
Kristian Stern punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT
14 plays · 51 yds · 2:4776% → 74%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
75.9%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
75.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 2 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+15
75.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Daniel Spencer for 15 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
76.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Ben Dew) to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-6
75.4%
John O'Korn sacked by Richard Burge and Brian Price for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 21
OWN 42
+1
74.8%
Ryan Jackson run for 1 yd to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+15
74.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
75.7%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+17
75.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 17 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
76.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-5
76.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 15Similar
Q2 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
76.0%
Ryan Jackson run for no gain to the TexSA 15 Ryan Jackson fumbled, recovered by HoustSimilar
Q2 14:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
75.6%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
74.4%
John O'Korn pass intercepted Triston Wade return for no gain to the TexSA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 4:2026% → 27%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
74.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexSA 8Similar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 5
OWN 8
+3
73.8%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+1
73.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 12Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 1
OWN 12
0
72.4%
Tucker Carter run for no gain to the TexSA 14 Tucker Carter fumbled, recovered by TexSA Tucker Carter for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
72.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 9Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 15
OWN 9
-5
74.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nate Leonard) to the TexSA 4Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 20
OWN 4
+1
73.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 5Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 19
OWN 5
+6
73.5%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kam Jones for 6 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+5
73.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kam Jones for 5 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
73.3%
Kristian Stern punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
71.7%
John O'Korn pass intercepted Crosby Adams III return for 21 yds to the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:5530% → 30%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-11
69.8%
Tucker Carter sacked by Gavin Stansbury for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 21
OPP 48
+5
70.2%
David Glasco II run for 5 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 16
OPP 43
-3
70.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Jarveon Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 19
OPP 46
-5
69.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 7:25
4TH & 24
OWN 49
+56
69.8%
Kristian Stern punt for 51 yds for a touchback HOUSTON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3468% → 66%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
67.8%
Kenneth Farrow run for 1 yd to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-7
67.5%
John O'Korn sacked by Jason Neill for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 9Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 16
OWN 9
+4
66.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 4 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+15
65.6%
Dylan Seibert punt for 39 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for 15 yds to the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0233% → 33%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-7
66.7%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Jarveon Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+7
67.1%
Kam Jones run for 7 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
65.5%
Tucker Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
66.7%
Tucker Carter punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3266% → 64%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.6%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
65.8%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Deontay GreenberrySimilar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
65.0%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Daniel SpencerSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+1
64.0%
Dylan Seibert punt for 40 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:0134% → 36%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
66.3%
Tucker Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
66.6%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
50
+15
64.3%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 15 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
63.1%
Tucker Carter run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
62.8%
Tucker Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
62.5%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Seth GrubbSimilar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
64.0%
Sean Ianno 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1564% → 60%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
64.3%
John O'Korn sacked by Ashaad Mabry for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+3
63.4%
John O'Korn pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 3 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-9
62.6%
John O'Korn sacked by Marcus Davenport and Jason Neill for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 18
OWN 22
0
59.6%
Dylan Seibert punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kenny Harrison at the TexSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 0:3943% → 57%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
56.6%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Marcellus Mack for 8 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+12
54.8%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 12 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+34
54.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Seth Grubb for 34 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.0%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20END OF HALF
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:1449% → 47%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.8%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
48.1%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Markeith AmblesSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
47.1%
Kenneth Farrow run for 7 yds to the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21TD
17 plays · 60 yds · 6:3357% → 86%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
42.9%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kam Jones for 6 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
41.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 9 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
41.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 15
50
+12
40.6%
David Glasco II run for 12 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+7
38.7%
David Glasco II run for 7 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
37.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+1
36.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+3
35.9%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+1
37.2%
David Glasco II run for 1 yd to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
34.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, False Start (Scott Inskeep) to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 15
OPP 26
0
31.8%
Tucker Carter run for no gain to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+13
31.1%
Tucker Carter pass complete to David Morgan II for 13 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+2
30.1%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
29.1%
David Glasco II run for no gain to the Houst 11Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
13.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22INT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:5019% → 18%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
19.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Ryan Jackson for 3 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
18.8%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+5
18.4%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+7
19.2%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 7 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
19.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
17.7%
John O'Korn pass intercepted Bennett Okotcha return for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 5:3589% → 96%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
10.7%
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
7.1%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
6.7%
Tucker Carter run for 3 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
6.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
6.0%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
5.7%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
5.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+9
4.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 9 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
4.6%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
4.2%
David Glasco II run for no gain to the Houst 7Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
4.0%
David Glasco II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 9Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
4.2%
Sean Ianno 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:407% → 6%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
6.9%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-3
6.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
6.3%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Wayne BeadleSimilar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
5.9%
Dylan Seibert punt for 33 yds , Kenny Harrison returns for no gain to the TexSA 39 Kenny Harrison fumbled, recovered by TexSASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1397% → 97%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
3.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 10 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
3.1%
David Glasco II run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
2.9%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
2.9%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
3.1%
Kristian Stern punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Greg Ward Jr. at the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26INT
9 plays · 52 yds · 1:365% → 5%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
4.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Deontay Greenberry for 19 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
4.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+15
4.5%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
4.8%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
4.7%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
4.5%
John O'Korn pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 9 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+6
4.9%
John O'Korn run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 41 John O'Korn fumbled, recovered by Houst John O'Korn for a 1ST down John O'Korn run for 6 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
4.7%
John O'Korn pass complete to Kenneth Farrow for 17 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+36
5.1%
John O'Korn pass intercepted Mauricio Sanchez return for 36 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3798% → 98%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
2.1%
David Glasco II run for no gain to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
1.9%
Aaron Grubb run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 8
50
0
1.8%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 8
50
-5
2.0%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
1.7%
Kristian Stern punt for 45 yds , Greg Ward Jr. returns for no gain to the Houst 45 HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kenneth Farrow) to the Houst 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:163% → 3%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+22
3.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 22 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
3.2%
John O'Korn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
2.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Markeith Ambles for 13 yds Markeith Ambles fumbled, recovered by TexSA Chase DahlquistSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 5:1199% → 100%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
1.4%
David Glasco II run for 5 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+5
1.3%
David Glasco II run for 5 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
1.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+2
1.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+14
1.0%
David Glasco II run for 14 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
0.7%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
0.7%
Tucker Carter run for no gain to the Houst 10Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-5
0.7%
TEXASSAN Penalty, False Start (Nate Shaw) to the Houst 15Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+2
0.7%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+30
0.2%
Sean Ianno 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 2:540% → 2%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
0.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
0.2%
Billy Cosh pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 8 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+4
0.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 4 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.2%
Billy Cosh pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
0.2%
Billy Cosh pass complete to Greg Ward Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+3
0.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 3 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+8
0.2%
Kenneth Farrow run for 8 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
0.2%
Billy Cosh pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 11 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
0.2%
Billy Cosh pass incomplete to Demarcus AyersSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
0.2%
Billy Cosh pass complete to Demarcus Ayers for 5 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+8
0.2%
Ryan Jackson run for 8 yds to the TexSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.2%
Billy Cosh pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.1%
Ryan Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bullard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 12
OWN 11
-1
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:07
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)
-15.2
TD · Q2 0:42
David Glasco II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)
-11
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:50
David Glasco II run for 4 yds to the Houst 41
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com