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PSU

Penn State 26 at UCF 24

UCF
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Croke Park Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:14 · Caleb Houston punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Home team on offense−6.9Garbage-time factor−4.7Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8One-score game−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:39: Justin Holman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +19.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 0:55: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 79 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK) — PSU win probability +16.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:31: Josh Reese 10 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Shawn Moffitt Kick) — UCF win probability +22.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 1:13: Justin Holman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK) — UCF win probability +65.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Sam Ficken 36 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +57.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:27UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:04UCF 4th & 1 at PSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−3.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:26UCF 4th & 5 at PSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−5.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:20PSU 4th & 5 at UCF 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−5.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:10UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:14PSU 4th & 25 at UCF 39, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%
    36% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:36PSU 4th & 7 at UCF 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−1.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:52UCF 4th & 16 at UCF 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−4.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:56PSU 4th & 5 at UCF 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−8.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:14UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−4.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:30PSU 4th & 7 at UCF 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−23.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:32UCF 4th & 10 at PSU 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−4.7
    28% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:32PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.0%−5.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:20PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:39UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:55PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:31UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:13UCF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−7.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1351% → 51%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
50.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-3
50.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
50.9%
Pete DiNovo pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+1
50.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 52 yds , Jordan Lucas returns for 1 yd to the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1249% → 48%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
51.1%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 15Similar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+8
51.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 8 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
51.2%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+15
51.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 15 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
51.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 9 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
50.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Brent WilkersonSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-7
51.1%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+15
51.8%
UCF Penalty, Running Into Kicker (15 Yards) to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:0449% → 52%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+44
51.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 44 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
50.7%
Zach Zwinak run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.6%
Zach Zwinak run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.5%
Zach Zwinak run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5250% → 49%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
50.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+16
50.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 16 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
50.2%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.0%
Pete DiNovo pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:2852% → 54%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
48.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 9 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 10
-5
47.9%
Belton, Bill rush for 19 yards to the PENNST29, PENALTY PENNST holding (Gaia, Brian) 5 yards to the PENNST5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+5
47.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 5 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+2
48.0%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
47.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 9 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+5
46.4%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
46.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 4 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
46.1%
Zach Zwinak run for 3 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
46.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Jacoby Glenn return for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3448% → 51%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
48.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
49.1%
Pete DiNovo pass incomplete to J.J. WortonSimilar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+9
48.2%
Pete DiNovo pass complete to J.J. Worton for 9 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
49.0%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-2
48.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+3
47.9%
Pete DiNovo run for 3 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
50.7%
Shawn Moffitt 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7FG
18 plays · 72 yds · 5:5451% → 59%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
49.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
49.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
48.9%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
48.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 9 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
47.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
47.8%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
47.4%
Christian Hackenberg run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 5
50
0
47.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 5
50
+5
47.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 5 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
46.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 16 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+27
43.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 27 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
44.9%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
44.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
45.1%
Zach Zwinak run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 5Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
41.0%
Sam Ficken 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:5042% → 40%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
41.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
41.4%
Pete DiNovo pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 5 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-2
40.4%
Pete DiNovo run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+16
39.6%
Houston, Caleb punt 47 yards to the PENNST31, Lucas, Jordan return 0 yards to the PENNST31, PENALTY PENNST personal foul 16 yards to the UCF38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
42.1%
Pete DiNovo pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
41.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-5
41.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Torrian Wilson) to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+4
39.6%
Pete DiNovo pass complete to J.J. Worton for 4 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
39.5%
Caleb Houston punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Lucas at the PnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 32 yds · 1:4461% → 63%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
38.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 8 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+22
37.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 22 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
35.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 13 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
34.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 6 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+6
34.3%
Christian Hackenberg run for 6 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
34.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Jesse JamesSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
34.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-15
35.0%
Hackenberg, Christian pass complete to Godwin, Chris for 20 yards to the UCF4, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Godwin, Chris) 15 yards to the UCF39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 25
OPP 39
0
36.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 25
OPP 39
-8
37.1%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Thomas Niles for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -11 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-11
42.2%
Justin Holman sacked by C.J. Olaniyan for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:4163% → 65%
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
37.1%
Zach Zwinak run for 12 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
35.3%
Zach Zwinak run for 9 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-1
34.3%
Zach Zwinak run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 2
50
+6
34.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 6 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
34.3%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+7
34.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+1
33.5%
Zach Zwinak run for 1 yd to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
33.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
35.1%
Chris Gulla punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1438% → 35%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-6
37.2%
Pete DiNovo sacked by Anthony Zettel for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
35.6%
Pete DiNovo pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+8
34.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 53 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for 8 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13FG
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:4467% → 70%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+38
33.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 38 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
31.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
31.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for no gain to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+5
31.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 5 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
30.1%
Sam Ficken 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:4728% → 50%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
28.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
27.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+6
27.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+18
25.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 18 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+50
29.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 50 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
30.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 2Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
30.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.3%
Justin Holman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:0958% → 74%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
42.2%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Jaryl Mamea for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+2
43.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 2 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+79
26.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 79 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:1924% → 48%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
23.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+60
28.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 46 yds to the PENNST 27 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (14 Yards) to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
28.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
28.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+9
26.0%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 9 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
27.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.1%
Justin Holman run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-5
27.0%
UCF Penalty, False Start (J.J. Worton) to the PnSt 6Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 0
OPP 6
-5
26.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Torrian Wilson) to the PnSt 11Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
48.1%
Josh Reese 10 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Shawn Moffitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:4865% → 68%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
35.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+3
33.2%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
32.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 12 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
31.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted Jordan Ozerities return for no gain to the UCF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
42.4%
Justin Holman run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 38 Justin Holman fumbled, recovered by PnSt Anthony ZettelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:2069% → 71%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
30.8%
Bill Belton run for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+1
28.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 1 yd Chris Godwin fumbled, recovered by UCF Clayton GeathersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5641% → 36%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
40.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
39.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 15
OWN 24
0
39.7%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Josh ReeseSimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 15
OWN 24
0
37.8%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
36.2%
Caleb Houston punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:2068% → 87%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
32.3%
Zach Zwinak run for 2 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-1
30.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+41
31.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 41 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
22.5%
Bill Belton run for 5 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
22.2%
Bill Belton run for 3 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+5
21.6%
Zach Zwinak run for 5 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
20.0%
Zach Zwinak run for 2 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
18.1%
Bill Belton run for 1 yd to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
19.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q4 3:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
12.7%
Sam Ficken 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:4722% → 80%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.3%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
22.7%
Justin Holman pass complete to J.J. Worton for 6 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
22.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Breshad Perriman for 22 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
27.1%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
23.1%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
22.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Breshad PerrimanSimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+37
14.1%
Justin Holman pass complete to Josh Reese for 37 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
79.5%
Justin Holman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 55 yds · 1:0337% → 96%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
63.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
64.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 7 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
60.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+8
63.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for 8 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
59.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Bill Belton for 13 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
59.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 9 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+18
61.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 18 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+36
4.3%
Sam Ficken 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:13
Justin Holman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Shawn Moffitt KICK)
+65.4
FG · Q4 0:00
Sam Ficken 36 yd FG GOOD
-57
TD · Q4 11:31
Josh Reese 10 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Shawn Moffitt Kick)
+22.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com