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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreBYU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the BYU 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:35: Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 26 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +1.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:13: Taysom Hill pass complete to Adam Hine for 7 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +4.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:33: Joshua Marriner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +5.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:03: Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 35 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +6.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:48: Bobby Puyol 35 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +2.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 9BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:26BYU 4th & 3 at CONN 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.5%52% to convertField goal81.4%−0.154% to makePunt81.3%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:40BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 33, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snapGo for it82.7%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.4%average punt
- Q1 1:13CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 45, down 14Close callPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:57BYU 4th & 16 at BYU 39, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snapGo for it82.7%−1.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.8%average punt
- Q2 10:34CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snapGo for it16.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q2 6:45CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 42, down 21Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:48CONN 4th & 16 at BYU 23, down 21Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 7.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.9%−1.215% to convertField goal7.2%70% to makePunt3.7%−3.5average punt
- Q3 4:46BYU 4th & 11 at CONN 15, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snapGo for it95.8%−0.624% to convertField goalTheir call96.4%83% to makePunt93.7%−2.7average punt
- Q3 1:47CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 44, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q4 11:48CONN 4th & 12 at BYU 17, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.621% to convertField goalTheir call2.7%80% to makePunt0.9%−1.8average punt
- Q4 10:14BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 29, up 18Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it97.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.1%−1.1average punt
- Q4 6:47CONN 4th & 7 at BYU 32, down 18Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.6%−0.137% to convertField goal3.7%51% to makePunt2.9%−0.8average punt
- Q4 5:41CONN 4th & 3 at BYU 10, down 18Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%−0.649% to convertField goal3.3%88% to makePunt0.9%−2.4average punt
- Q4 1:50CONN 4th & 5 at BYU 5, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%33% to convertField goal0.5%−<0.192% to makePunt0.1%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 9:56BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.2%97% to makeGo for two81.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:35BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.2%97% to makeGo for two82.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:13BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:33CONN Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.1%97% to makeGo for two15.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:03BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%97% to makeGo for two89.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:06BYU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBYUDrive 1TD17 plays · 75 yds · 4:4884% → 83%
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-8
16.5%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Mitch Mathews) to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
16.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 6 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+25
16.8%
Taysom Hill run for 10 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
17.1%
Hill, Taysom rush for 8 yards to the UCONN30, PENALTY BYU holding (Stringham, Brock) 10 yards to the UCONN48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+10
17.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Algernon Brown for 10 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+3
17.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 3 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+11
18.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 11 yds to the UConn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
17.2%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds for a TD CONNECTICUT Penalty, Defensive Holding (Obi Melifonwu) declined, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2FUMBLE2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
17.6%
Max DeLorenzo run for 7 yds to the UConn 26 Max DeLorenzo fumbled, forced by Jherremya Leuta-Douyere, recovered by BYU Bronson KaufusiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3TD1 play · 26 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
16.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 26 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4INT6 plays · 35 yds · 2:2617% → 17%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
16.8%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Kamal Abrams for 9 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+18
17.1%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 18 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
17.3%
Casey Cochran pass intercepted Craig Bills return for no gain to the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 3:0384% → 84%
Q1 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+21
16.3%
Taysom Hill run for 6 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, Personal Foul (Julian Campenni) to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-10
16.0%
Hine, Adam rush for 1 yard to the BYU37, PENALTY BYU holding (Koroma, Tejan) 10 yards to the BYU26, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1916% → 17%
Q1 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+5
16.5%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Deshon Foxx for 5 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+8
16.5%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Sean McQuillan for 8 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
17.0%
Casey Cochran pass incomplete to Sean McQuillan, broken up by Teu KautaiSimilar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
16.9%
Justin Wain punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Mitchell Juergens at the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT11 plays · 17 yds · 3:0384% → 84%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-11
16.1%
Hill, Taysom pass complete to Juergens, Mitchell for 42 yards to the UCONN35, PENALTY BYU personal foul (Stringham, Brock) 11 yards to the BYU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+10
16.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 10 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jamar Summers) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
16.1%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 10 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-10
15.7%
Hill, Taysom rush for 15 yards to the UCONN40, PENALTY BYU holding (Mahina, Devin) 10 yards to the BYU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+4
16.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Paul Lasike for 4 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 16
OWN 39
+50
16.2%
Scott Arellano punt for 40 yds , Deshon Foxx returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 38 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Illegal Block (Graham Stewart) to the UConn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0517% → 16%
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+10
16.5%
Whitmer, Chandler pass incomplete to Bradley, Dhameer, PENALTY BYU holding (Leuta-Douyere, Jherremya) 10 yards to the UCONN23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCONN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
16.6%
Whitmer, Chandler rush for 3 yards to the UCONN26, PENALTY UCONN holding (Clax, Jazzmar) 10 yards to the UCONN13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+5
16.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Geremy Davis for 5 yds to the UConn 18Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+10
16.0%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Geremy Davis for 10 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
16.1%
Chandler Whitmer pass incomplete to Kamal Abrams, broken up by Michael DavisSimilar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+24
16.0%
Justin Wain punt for 42 yds , Mitchell Juergens returns for 24 yds to the UConn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD5 plays · 46 yds · 1:1285% → 90%
CONNDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:1411% → 11%
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
10.7%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Geremy Davis for 5 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+5
11.1%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Kamal Abrams for 5 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
11.3%
Casey Cochran pass incomplete to Geremy Davis CONNECTICUT Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
11.2%
Justin Wain punt for 39 yds , Mitchell Juergens returns for no gain to the BYU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11FUMBLE5 plays · 33 yds · 1:4989% → 90%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
10.9%
Taysom Hill sacked by Cameron Stapleton and Jefferson Ashiru for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 29Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+5
10.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 5 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
10.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 9 yds Mitch Mathews fumbled, recovered by UConnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12TD7 plays · 52 yds · 1:5011% → 17%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
11.2%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Joshua Marriner for 17 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
11.5%
Joshua Marriner run for 7 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Sideline Interference (5 Yards) to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
11.6%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Sean McQuillan for 13 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 0
OPP 2
+1
11.4%
Whitmer, Chandler pass incomplete to McQuillan, Sean, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Bills, Craig) 1 yards to the BYU1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCONN. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD6 plays · 69 yds · 1:1485% → 93%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
14.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 14 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
13.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
7.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 35 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14END OF HALF6 plays · 20 yds · 0:519% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15DOWNS13 plays · 64 yds · 5:569% → 7%
Q3 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+31
8.9%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Geremy Davis for 16 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Alani Fua) to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+16
9.7%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Geremy Davis for 16 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
9.9%
Casey Cochran sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 16
OPP 34
+5
9.4%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Geremy Davis for 5 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+12
9.2%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Sean McQuillan for 12 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 9
OPP 16
-5
9.0%
Chandler Whitmer sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 21Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 14
OPP 21
-2
8.1%
Chandler Whitmer sacked by Zac Stout for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16MISSED FG14 plays · 68 yds · 3:5595% → 97%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
4.9%
Hill, Taysom pass incomplete to Mathews, Mitch, PENALTY UCONN pass interference (Williams, Jhavon) 15 yards to the BYU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
4.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Algernon Brown for 7 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
4.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Algernon Brown for 2 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+12
4.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jordan Leslie for 12 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+14
3.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 14 yds to the UConn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-1
2.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Paul Lasike for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:524% → 4%
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
4.2%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Jazzmar Clax for 3 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+24
3.9%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Kamal Abrams for 24 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+3
3.9%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Tommy Myers for 3 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
3.8%
Justin Wain punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Keanu Nelson at the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FUMBLE4 plays · 28 yds · 0:5298% → 98%
Q3 0:46
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+10
2.1%
Algernon Brown run for 10 yds to the UConn 46 Algernon Brown fumbled, forced by Graham Stewart, recovered by UConn Reuben FrankSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19FG11 plays · 37 yds · 3:123% → 4%
Q4 14:24
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+15
3.3%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Alec Bloom for 15 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+10
3.0%
Chandler Whitmer sacked by Skye PoVey for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 41 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alani Fua) to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
3.0%
Chandler Whitmer pass complete to Ron Johnson for 11 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 12
OWN 35
-5
4.3%
Puyol, Bobby kickoff 62 yards to the BYU3, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UCONN kickoff out of bounds 5 yards to the UCONN30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2996% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21DOWNS16 plays · 70 yds · 4:274% → 3%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
3.9%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Noel Thomas for 12 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
4.0%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Noel Thomas for 6 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+15
4.0%
BYU Penalty, Roughing Passer (Dallin Leavitt) to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
4.2%
Casey Cochran pass incomplete to Dhameer Bradley, broken up by Jordan PreatorSimilar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+15
4.0%
Casey Cochran pass complete to Dhameer Bradley for 15 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
2.9%
Casey Cochran pass incomplete to Geremy Davis, broken up by Jordan PreatorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22TD6 plays · 90 yds · 1:2898% → 100%
Q4 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+11
2.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Paul Lasike for 11 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
1.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 12 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
1.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 30 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:03
Taysom Hill pass complete to Terenn Houk for 35 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
-6
TD · Q2 2:33
Joshua Marriner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q2 9:13
Taysom Hill pass complete to Adam Hine for 7 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
-4.6